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000
FXUS62 KMFL 130600
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 157 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Mesoanalysis this morning indicates peninsular drainage flow with
reinforcing dry air advecting southward across the Florida Peninsula
into our area. Temperatures around sunrise will vary from the 50s
just to the west of Lake Okeechobee and across inland locales with
the coastal communities remaining in the low 60s. With the axis of
the surface ridge shifting into the western Atlantic waters later
today, winds will veer to a northeasterly direction across the area
by the afternoon hours. Even with an onshore wind component, skies
will remain sunny in nature this weekend as the vertical column
remains very dry. It`ll certainly feel dry and comfortable out there
as relative humidity and dew-point values remain quite low. High
temperatures on both days of the weekend will remain seasonable in
nature with forecast highs in the upper 70s to low 80s along the
immediate east coast with slightly warmer temperatures (low 80s
with perhaps a few locales in the middle 80s) inland and across
southwestern Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 157 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Not much to write home about for the foreseeable future as our
overall weather pattern remains benign and dry. Mid-level ridging
will build across the area in conjunction with the aforementioned
high pressure over the western Atlantic. The positioning of the high
NE of the area will support easterly low-lvl flow through essentially
the entire extended period, while very dry air and subsidence in the
vicinity of the encroaching mid-level ridge combined with the
northward displacement of the subtropical jet-stream and the
resultant disturbances track well to the north of the region will
keep rain chances near zero as well. Temperatures, initially near
seasonal normals on Monday, will warm to above normal by mid-week as
the ridge builds toward the area. Given the persistent easterly flow,
warmer high temperatures will be observed over Interior and SW Florida
with fairly widespread maximums in the lower 90s expected Wednesday
and beyond, while the east coast will see highs gradually warm into
the mid 80s by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR through the 06Z TAF period. Light NW winds become NE after 14Z
10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 157 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Hazardous marine conditions will continue across the Atlantic waters
this morning as an increase in winds occur across the Atlantic waters.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic waters through
11am this morning. Conditions will gradually improve as the day
progresses with conditions gradually becoming benign in nature late
this weekend into early next week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 157 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

An elevated risk of rip currents may continue along the Atlantic beaches
this weekend into early next week as an easterly breeze prevails across
our area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Dry conditions continue on Saturday, particularly over Interior
and SW Florida where minimum RHs 20-30% will be possible (while
RHs will be somewhat higher near the east coast due to onshore
winds). RHs will gradually improve Sunday into the upcoming week,
but pockets or near to just below 35% minimum RHs will remain
possible over SW and Interior Florida. Winds will remain below Red
Flag criteria through the period, with 20ft winds generally 10
kts or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  65  79  66 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     82  62  81  63 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        81  64  81  66 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        80  65  79  66 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  79  65  78  66 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  79  65  78  66 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   82  64  81  66 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  79  62  78  63 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       79  64  79  66 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           83  60  84  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...CMF