Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
135
FNUS72 KMHX 010915
FWSMHX
Spot Forecast for VOA...NCWRC
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
515 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on May 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.
.DISCUSSION...
Compared to the past few days, today will feature lighter winds,
but higher humidity and a higher chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Showers are possible this morning (20-40% chance),
followed by an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon (40-60% chance). Thursday and Friday will feature a
somewhat drier airmass, and a lower risk of showers, but light
winds aloft will lead to lower vent rates.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the morning. Showers and
thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
LAL.................1 until 1100, then increasing to 3 by the
afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing Height.......Max 5800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 10 mph shifting to the southwest
late in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 40020 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 3.
ADI.................Max 43.
Stability class.....2.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Sfc pressure........29.88 to 29.94 inHg.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........46 36 36 41 51 63 66 67 64
Weather cov..... SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY
LAL.............1 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 4
Temp............71 74 77 80 81 81 80 79 77
RH..............79 71 62 54 53 51 52 56 60
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W SW SW
20 FT wind spd..6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4
20 FT wind gust.9 9 9 9 9 5 5 5
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 2.2 3.2 4.3 5.5 5.8 4.9 4.3 3.0
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W SW
Transp wind spd.10 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7
LVORI...........3 3 1 1 1 1 2 2 2
ADI.............21 25 33 38 43 30 28 27 26
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate mph-ft/1K.16 20 25 30 38 40 33 29 21
Sfc pres (in)...994 994 994 994 992 991 989 988 988
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms early in
the evening. Patchy fog after 3 am.
LAL.................3 until 2000, then 2 until 2200, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 60.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing Height.......Min 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 10 mph shifting to the west after 3 am.
Vent Rate...........Min 1954 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 9.
ADI.................Min 2.
Stability class.....4.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........29.87 to 29.95 inHg.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........59 54 45 34 25 21 22 26 28 29 32 37
Weather cov.....CHC CHC SCH SCH PTY PTY PTY
Weather type....RW RW RW RW FOG FOG FOG
Tstm cov........CHC CHC SCH SCH
LAL.............3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............75 72 70 68 67 66 65 64 63 62 62 61
RH..............64 76 84 93 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 100
20 FT wind dir..SW S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..4 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2
20 FT wind gust.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4
Transp wind dir.S S S SE S S S S S SW W SW
Transp wind spd.7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5
LVORI...........2 4 5 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9
ADI.............19 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2
Haines index....4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4
Vrate mph-ft/1K.15 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 2
Sfc pres (in)...987 988 988 990 992 994 995 995 995 995 995 995
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. Patchy fog early in the morning.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east around 5 mph.
Mixing Height.......Max 6000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 10 mph shifting to the southeast in
the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 34615 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 9.
ADI.................Max 42.
Stability class.....3.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........29.92 to 30.01 inHg.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........44 40 25 17 10 15
Weather cov.....PATCHY
Weather type....FOG NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............61 64 73 79 83 85
RH..............100 97 73 56 44 40
20 ft wind......E 2 NE 1 NE 2 E 3 E 3 E 4
20 ft wind gust.5 5 5 5
Mix hgt (ft)....500 500 1500 3700 5500 5800
Transport wind..SE 5 W 3 NE 3 E 5 E 5 SE 5
LVORI...........9 8 3 2 1 1
ADI.............2 3 7 22 31 37
Haines index....4 5 5 5 5 5
Vrate mph-ft/1K.2 2 5 17 25 30
Sfc pres (in)...29.96 29.99 30.01 30.00 29.96 29.93
$$
Forecaster...Martin
Requested by...Jennifer Prince
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412673.2/MHX
.DELDT 05/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jennifer.prince@ncwildlife.org