917
FXUS62 KMLB 271400
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1000 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...


.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024


...High Risk for Rip Currents/Rough Surf at Area Beaches this
Weekend...
...Deteriorating Boating Conditions across the Local Coastal
Waters....
...Breezy, Windy, Gusty East Winds Today...


The KMLB WSR-88D radar shows scattered light showers ongoing this
morning across the Atlantic waters, with some of these showers
making it along the coast and pushing inland. The 10Z XMR sounding
shows a moistening profile through the lower and part of the mid
layer, with a PW value increasing from 1.05" yesterday to 1.24"
today. This will support increasing cloud cover today, with lower
level clouds pushing onshore from the Atlantic in the deep/onshore
flow on top of the high clouds pushing in from the west. Onshore flow
will persist today as High pressure remains in place across the
eastern CONUS. As the pressure gradient tightens today, winds will
increase to 16-23mph with frequent gusts of 25-30 mph possible, with
up to 35 mph possible along the coast. Winds will diminish
overnight, especially across the interior, with speeds remaining
elevated and gusty closer to the coast tonight.

Scattered light showers and sprinkles will continue over the
Atlantic through tonight, with some of this activity making it to
the coast and pushing inland. Have added PoP 10-15% across all of
ECFL to account for these isolated light showers/sprinkles through
tonight. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s across
the coast, and low to mid 80s across the interior. Overnight lows
will be in the low to mid 60s. Forecast remains on track with only
minor adjustments to rain chances through tonight to account for the
light showers/sprinkles across the land areas.


&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 957 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Marine stratocu will stream
across the area in the stout onshore flow on top of the high level
clouds pushing in from the west. Breezy and gusty onshore flow
today, with speeds of 15-20 KT and gusts to 25-30 KT possible (up to
35 KT possible along the coast). Winds will slowly diminish this
evening, however winds will remain elevated and gusty along the
coast today. Light showers/sprinkles will be possible through
tonight, especially along the coast from Cape Canaveral northward.
Have included VCSH for DAB through 15Z, otherwise confidence and
coverage not there for inclusion of VCSH.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 957 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Current buoy 41009 observations show seas are 6ft with
ESE winds around 18 KT. Boating conditions will continue to
deteriorate today as the pressure gradient tightens. Easterly winds
of  15-20 KT this morning will increase to 20-25 KT by this
afternoon before gradually decreasing late tonight to 15-20 KT. Seas
4-6ft will build up to 7ft in the offshore waters this afternoon,
and 6-7ft in the near shore waters and 7-8ft in the Gulf Stream
waters tonight. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the all
the offshore waters and the near shore waters today, with the SCA
expanding to all the waters this afternoon and continuing into
tonight. Isolated/scattered light showers/sprinkles will be possible
through today and tonight, with activity moving towards the coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Today...Deep onshore (ERLY) winds increase 15-20 mph with frequent
higher gusts up to around 25 mph and perhaps 30-35 mph along the
immediate coast at times this afternoon. Min RHs stay above
critical levels, 40-45pct along the Kissimmee River and 45-60pct
towards the coast. Conditions mainly dry outside of a sprinkle or
brief light shower along the coast (esp Cape northward).
Dispersions will be Very Good to Excellent!

Sunday-Wednesday...East winds of 15-20 mph on Sunday will diminish
through the early part of the work week. Temperatures will begin a
warming trend, reaching the upper 80s to low 90s by mid-week. Min RH
values will be above critical levels Sunday and Monday, but will
drop below 40% west of Orlando by Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain
remains out of the forecast this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Today-Tonight...Mid-level shortwave troughing across the eastern
CONUS will weaken slightly and we will see some weak shortwave
impulses penetrate the FL peninsula, but will have little effect due
to the stable marine airmass in place. Stout surface high pressure
along the Eastern Seaboard will gradually weaken with center along
the mid Atlc states by sunrise Sun morning. This will keep a
persistent ERLY flow across the region. Wind speeds will increase to
16-23 mph sustained with frequent higher gusts across much of ECFL.
Wind gusts will approach 25-30 mph, and won`t be surprised to see
some gusts to 35 mph - especially along the coast. This tighter
pressure gradient continues into the evening, with a diminishing
trend overnight across the interior - though speeds will remain
elevated and gusty closer to the coast.

Though we have a fairly stable airmass in place, the deep/onshore
flow will permit for a few sprinkles and perhaps a brief light
shower to push onto the coast occasionally - especially Cape
northward. Again, a trace to a few hundredths is all that can be
expected. PoPs overall are up to 10-15pct over land areas. We
should see a bit more cloud-cover pushing onto the coast and
inland during the day, on top of the intruding high clouds (from
the west).

Afternoon highs in the U70s to L80s near the coast and L-M80s into
the interior. Overnight mins remain mild and in the 60s areawide,
perhaps some L70s along the immediate coast/barrier islands in
play as winds stay elevated.

Expect a HIGH risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip
currents at ALL central FL Atlc beaches today. Rough surf will also
be present. Entering the surf zone today will be strongly
discouraged!

Sunday-Monday...Surface high pressure will remain anchored just
offshore from the Carolinas early in the week with a very strong and
broad ridge aloft across most of the eastern CONUS. Deep onshore
flow will persist due to the proximity of the surface high, with
east winds of 15-20 mph. Little to no rain is forecast, although
embedded oceanic moisture may lead to isolated showers over the
Atlantic waters. Confidence in showers moving onshore is not high
enough to include in the forecast, so have kept mention away from
land areas on Sunday and Monday. Easterly flow will actually keep
temperatures just a bit below normal on Sunday in the upper 70s to
lower 80s at the coast and approaching the mid 80s inland. Highs
warm a few degrees on Monday (closer to average values for late
April). Seasonal lows in the mid 60s.

Tuesday-Saturday...The remainder of the forecast period will be high
and dry as the surface high drifts slightly seaward through midweek
but still keeps influence on the local pattern. Onshore winds
continue this week, increasing in the afternoon with the east coast
sea breeze. No PoPs in the forecast through next weekend, although
could see hints of light onshore moving showers similar to early in
the week, but do not have confidence to include. Temperatures by
Tuesday reach the upper 80s inland; still lower 80s at the coast,
with the 90s making an appearance to begin the month of May. While
it will be warm, lower dewpoints will keep the oppressiveness at bay
for at least a bit longer. Lows in the mid/upper 60s persist this
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  66  79  64 /  20  10   0   0
MCO  83  67  82  64 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  80  67  80  66 /  10   0   0   0
VRB  81  65  80  65 /  10   0  10   0
LEE  83  65  83  63 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  82  65  82  63 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  83  67  83  65 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  81  65  80  65 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Sunday
     for AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ555-570-572-
     575.

&&

$$

Watson/Heil