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000
FXUS64 KMOB 222055
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
355 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

The forecast remains on track this afternoon with current
satellite imagery revealing clear skies across the entire region.
Surface high pressure remains situated just off to the northwest
with dry northerly flow prevailing. Temperatures have warmed into
the middle 60s, but these temperatures are still below normal
given the northerly surface winds. Cooler temperatures will
continue into tonight with lows expected to drop down into the
lower and middle 40s for inland areas and the lower 50s along the
immediate coastal interface. The main adjustment to the forecast
this afternoon was to lower dew points by a few degrees given
current surface observations. Minimum relative humidity values are
now expected to reach into the 25-30% range later this afternoon
for most areas. A light southerly flow returns on Tuesday as the
surface high pressure slides east and this will result in warmer
temperatures and some moisture return. Despite the slight increase
in moisture, dry conditions persist with plenty of sunshine. Highs
on Tuesday will warm into the middle 70s. /14

&&

.SHORT/LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Very little change to the longer ranged forecast from previous
couple of forecast cycles. The area is expected to remain dry for
the remainder of the week, through the weekend and likely even
into the early part of next week.

Northwesterly flow aloft prevails through early Friday as the local
area remains on the periphery of an approaching ridge to the west
and a departing upper trough to the east. An upper ridge drifts
east across the area Friday and Friday night, but flow aloft
turns more southwesterly by Saturday as the upper ridge axis
slides east and a deeper southwesterly flow develops as a deep
shortwave trough develops over the Four Corners region. This upper
low weakens and lifts northeast toward the Great Lakes through the
remainder of the period with the mostly southwesterly flow aloft
continuing over area area, but possibly becoming a little more
westerly by Monday of next week as the left-over trough axis
aloft approaches from the west.

Down at the surface, a surface high over the Southeast continues
to gradually slide into the western Atlantic during the middle
part of the week, with ridging then extending west and maintaining
its grip on the region through the early part of the weekend and
possibly even into early next week. This pattern will maintain
a low level onshore (mostly southeasterly) wind flow flow
through the period. While this will result in increased moister
levels and moderating temperatures, no rainfall is expected for
the bulk of the forecast period. There will be a couple of frontal
boundaries that try to move down into the southeast CONUS through
the period (one Wednesday night and Thursday, another late in the
weekend or early next week), but the ridging over our area should
hang these systems up well to our north. Can`t completely rule
out a few showers sparking up in the afternoon hours this weekend
into early next week with the increased heating and moisture, but
for no we have not included any PoPs in the forecast as confidence
for this remains rather low.

Moderating temperatures are expected through the period, with lows
initially in the low to mid 50s across the area Tuesday and
Wednesday nights, but rising mainly into the 60s Thursday night
through the weekend (although a few interior locations will still
likely see upper 50s). Daytime highs moderate as well, warming
into the upper 70s and lower 80s Wednesday and Thursday and the
into the into the low to mid 80s Friday through Monday. DS/23

Beach Note: Rip current risk remains low through Thursday and
increases to MODERATE by Friday. Increasing onshore flow late in the
week and over the weekend will lead to an increasing risk. RCMOS
probabilities indicate a high likelihood of the risk increasing to a
HIGH by Saturday morning at all local beaches (likely extending into
Sunday based on the increasing onshore flow). 07/mb

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A light to moderate offshore flow continues tonight as a high
pressure builds into the area. Light to moderate southeasterly
flow develops on Tuesday, before becoming light and variable by
midweek. Onshore flow is expected to increase by Friday and into
the weekend. /14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      47  76  55  82  59  82  61  81 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   53  74  59  78  61  79  63  79 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      57  73  61  77  64  77  66  79 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   43  77  50  81  56  82  57  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  42  77  51  82  56  83  58  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      42  76  51  79  57  80  57  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   42  77  49  82  55  83  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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