042
FXUS64 KMOB 030954
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
454 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 454 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

The more widespread high cloud cover that we noted in yesterday
mornings discussion did indeed increase over the area, and as
expected has limited widespread dense fog development across the
region so far this morning. These higher clouds are moving east
across the area, but beginning to clear somewhat over our MS
counties. Some patchy light fog is expected across the area through
around 9 AM this morning, but the only locations where any dense fog
may briefly develop will be over our western zones where the high
clouds are thinning. At this time we don`t anticipate that we will
need a Dense Fog Advisory for any portion of our area this morning
as any dense fog that may develop will probably be somewhat
localized and brief in nature. Models do indicate that the mid/high
cloud cover will not be as thick or widespread across the region
tonight however, and there is a better signal for the potential
return of more widespread dense fog late tonight into early Saturday
morning.

Otherwise, the forecast area remains between an upper ridge along
the east coast and troughing over much of the western CONUS,
maintaining a southwest to west upper level flow across our area.
At the surface, high pressure off the southeast coast will ridge
back west into our area and keep a south to southeasterly low level
flow over the area through the next couple of days. Combined with
daytime heating, weak ripples in the flow aloft may provide enough
forcing for isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms both today
and Saturday, primarily over the western and northern portions of
our forecast area. These storms will generally be short-lived given
the influence of the ridge. Coverage of showers and storms may be a
tad higher on Saturday due to greater available moisture as
southerly flow persists, but PoPs should be no more than about 30
percent either day. For both days, activity should diminish with the
loss of daytime heating.

Daytime high temperatures will continue to range from the mid to
upper 80s inland, to the low to mid 80s coastal, both today and
Saturday, although there may be a few low 90s over interior
locations on Saturday. Lows tonight will mainly be in the middle 60s
across most of the area, but a few lower 70s possible along the
immediate coast and barrier islands. DS/12

&&

.SHORT and LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 454 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A general zonal to, at times, northwesterly flow pattern aloft is
expected through the extended period as upper ridging begins to
build over the Gulf and a few embedded, weak shortwaves move
overhead. At the surface, large high pressure over the western
Atlantic remains as the dominant feature, keeping our region under
a persistent southerly flow through the entire period.

Daytime heating, in combination with weak forcing from one of the
shortwaves aloft, and ample moisture in place from the persistent
southerly winds at the surface, should allow for isolated to
scattered showers and storms to develop, primarily over interior
areas during the afternoon and early evening hours on Sunday. Weak
shear in place will help to keep convection disorganized and pulse-
like in nature, typical of what we see during a general summertime
pattern. As is the case for this type of convection, cannot rule out
one or two stronger storms that would be capable of producing gusty
downdraft winds, mainly as a result from outflow and sea breeze
boundary collisions. Rain chances begin to lower on Monday and are
out of the forecast by midweek as the upper ridge axis begins to
build northward into our area.

With the ridge building, very warm, summer-like temperatures are
expected across the region, especially as we get into the middle of
next week. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 80s through
Tuesday, increasing to the upper 80s to low 90s by Wednesday and
Thursday. In fact, heat indices by Thursday may climb into the upper
90s for several interior spots. Lows through Monday night will
generally range from the mid to upper 60s inland to the low 70s
along the coast. Lows moderate further by midweek with low to mid
70s expected by Wednesday night. A moderate risk of rip currents is
expected through, at least, the middle part of the week. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 454 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A light onshore flow will persist through the weekend and then
increase slightly during the early part of next week as surface
high pressure continues to ridge into the marine area from the
east. Bay waters will have a light to moderate chop through the
period. Seas offshore generally remain 2 feet or less over the
next few days, but increase to around 2 to 3 feet late in the
weekend and into the early part of next week due to the slight
increase in winds. Winds will be a little higher and occasionally
gusty each afternoon near the coast in association with the daily
sea breeze circulation. A few showers or storms over the bays and
inland waterways this weekend. Generally no significant hazards to
small craft expected, however. DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      84  69  86  67  86  69  85  70 /  20  10  20   0  10   0  10   0
Pensacola   82  70  83  69  84  71  83  72 /  10  10  10   0  10   0  10   0
Destin      81  70  82  70  82  72  83  72 /  10  10  10   0  10   0  10   0
Evergreen   88  66  89  65  89  65  88  66 /  20  10  30  10  20  10  10   0
Waynesboro  85  66  88  65  88  65  89  68 /  30  20  30  10  30  10  20   0
Camden      87  66  87  66  88  65  88  67 /  20  20  30  20  30  20  20   0
Crestview   88  64  89  64  89  65  88  66 /  10  10  20  10  20   0  10   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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