Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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804 AWUS01 KWNH 081737 FFGMPD VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-082335- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0240 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 136 PM EDT Wed May 08 2024 Areas affected...much of central and southern MO...southern IL Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 081735Z - 082335Z Summary...Scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding are likely through late afternoon with additional localized totals of 2-4" expected. Discussion...A pair of intense supercells continue to track gradually eastward across central MO early this afternoon, producing 1-2"/hr rainfall rates along their path. These cells began as a single elevated intense supercell earlier this morning south of Kansas City, but the resulting cells have since become surface-rooted with daytime heating (and a slight southward drift in track). The mesoscale environment in the vicinity of these storms is characterized by an ML CAPE gradient of 1000-2500 J/kg, PWATs of 1.2-1.4 inches (already near the 90th percentile, per SPC sounding climatology), and effective bulk shear of 50-70 kts. Given that the original prolific supercell from this morning has already had a history flash flooding, the expectation is that flash flooding will remain likely into the late afternoon with an expansion in overall areal coverage (becoming scattered to numerous) as storm coverage increases (both downstream and upstream of current storms along the remnant outflow). Localized additional totals where cores train most efficiently is expected to be 2-4", generally exceeding short-term (3-6 hour) regional FFGs of ~1.5-2.5". This QPF corresponds with 12z HREF 40-km neighborhood probabilities for 3" exceedance of 20-40%. Churchill ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...JKL...LMK...LSX...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH... RLX...RNK...SGF... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37408801 37388718 37168564 37178496 37238346 37378261 37258180 36818156 36258214 35828294 35728372 35728481 35818596 35998735 36228833 36458912 36938926 37378877 39199010 39148894 38578873 38128845 37488825 37278873 37098929 37439034 37259164 37229334 37859394 38309325 38929133