National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KMPX 180807
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
307 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some frost concerns tonight, but winds will act against a
  widespread frost

- Breezy and cool through the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Light rain associated with an elevated area of deformation over
Iowa has spread up to near/just north of I-90 early this
morning. A few light sprinkles could make it as far north as the
Twin Cities metro later this morning, but slightly drier air to
the north will inhibit much further northward progress.
Otherwise this activity will push into western and southwestern
Wisconsin by early afternoon and clear out of our area.
Meanwhile a sheared mid-level upper wave will interact with cold
air advection and a slightly unstable low-level airmass over
western and central Minnesota later this afternoon. CAMs
guidance suggests some scattered shallow convective showers/snow
showers across this area later today which seems reasonable
given the set up. The moist/unstable layer is quite shallow
though, so any precip should be very scattered and light.

A large area of high pressure over Canada will maintain a
cooler-than-average airmass across the region through the end of
the week. This will bring temperatures slightly below freezing
starting tonight, which could lead to some patchy frost
concerns. After coordination with surrounding WFOs and state
climatologists, we`ve decided to start issuing frost/freeze
products a bit earlier than usual due to the warm winter and
resulting earlier growing season. However, winds tonight may be
high enough to prevent much widespread frost, so we will hold
off on any frost advisories for now. This cooler and breezy
pattern will continue through Saturday with highs in the 40s and
lows in the lower 30s. We`ll then rebound to near/slightly above
average temperatures heading into Sunday and the start of the
work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Rain quickly approaching southwest MN is expected to have its
northern edge setup between MKT and MSP, so the only site we
have precip mention left at is MKT, with the rain likely staying
just south of RWF/MSP/EAU. Thursday is looking like yet another
day with deep mixing, allowing for the occasional wind gust to
get up there around 30 kts and did boost wind speeds for Thu
afternoon from the previous TAF. We will likely some some
clearing of skies Thursday morning before a BKN-SCT stratocu
field develops in by the afternoon. This cloud deck will come in
between 6k and 8k feet thanks to the deep mixing.

KMSP...Rain will be close between 9z and 13z, but its expected
to make it about as far north as LVN. It looks like another
gusty day for Thursday, though with directions closer to 270.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind WNW 15-25G30-40 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20-25 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind W 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DPH
AVIATION...MPG