705
FNUS73 KMPX 011125
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Lea Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
625 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...For the Lea Rx Burn, partly to mostly cloudy skies
are expected today with temperatures in the low 60s. Winds will
start out on the breezy side from the west before diminishing by
early afternoon and becoming northwesterly to light and variable
by the evening. RH values will fall to around 35%.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent).
Temperature.........50 at ignition...Max 63.
RH..................74 percent at ignition...Min 34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 16 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 8 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /59600 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /86100 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......2700 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4700 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 16 to 25 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 13 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  PC  PC  PC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............50  52  55  58  60  61  62  62  61  60  58  56
RH..............74  69  59  52  47  43  39  41  44  47  53  58
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..16  16  15  15  13  12  10  9   5   1   5   5
20 FT wind gust.24  25  24  23  22  18  17  15  12  8   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...2.7 3.1 3.8 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.7 3.9 2.7 1.7 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  N   NE  SE
Transp wind spd.25  24  24  23  22  18  16  13  9   6   5   5
Haines index....3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers overnight. Chance of rain showers
                    after 3 am.
Temperature.........Min 46.
RH..................Max 93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming southeast 5 to 9
                    mph early in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (22200 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (1700 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 5 to 9 mph shifting to the southeast 5 to
                    10 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Chance of rain showers
                    early in the morning, then rain showers likely
                    in the morning and early afternoon. Chance of
                    rain showers late in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 52.
RH..................Min 80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 10 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (44500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 12 to 21 mph shifting to the east 17
                    to 25 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Dye
Requested by...Matt Graeve
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412884.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL mgraeve@tnc.org