Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
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007 FXUS64 KMRX 020043 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 843 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 835 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024 No changes to the forecast for the overnight period. With a larger dew point/temp spread tonight than last night, fog development will be more confined to near bodies of water and maybe places where ground moisture from recent rains is higher. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 236 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024 Key Messages: 1. Above normal temperatures and dry conditions continue. 2. Fog tonight should be more confined to on and near bodies of water. Discussion: Surface high pressure will remain in control across the region for the short term. Light winds and clear skies will lead to favorable radiational cooling overnight and fog will be possible once again tonight into Thursday morning. However, with time for top soils to dry from previous rainfall the thoughts are this will be more limited to on and near bodies of water. These thoughts match up well with ensemble guidance for probability of visibility less than 4 miles. Upper level height rises occur into Thursday afternoon as anomalous ridging settles in. Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist. With convection expected across Mississippi River valley, we could see some high clouds advect across the area late Thursday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 236 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024 Key Messages: 1. Near normal to above normal temperatures through the long term. 2. Unsettled pattern with chances for showers and thunderstorms each day of the long term. Discussion: No big changes to the long term forecast period. The theme of the long term is near normal to above temperatures along with chances of showers and storms each day. No signs of any severe or organized storm threat at this time. Thursday night into Friday the upper ridge pushes eastward as a broad longwave trough noses in from the west. A weak cold front accompanies the trough and increasing POPS are in place ahead of the cold front. The front moves through on Saturday, keeping POPs in place areawide. An additional cold front moves in on Sunday, keeping POPs elevated across the area. On Monday, ridging builds back into the area. However, a shortwave will ride the western periphery of the ridge and move across western TN and into the Great Lakes. This shortwave will keep POPs in place across our area through Monday. POPs remain in place Tuesday and Wednesday as we are under quasi-zonal flow with a broad long wave trough in place over much of the the central and western U.S. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 723 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024 VFR conditions will prevail with mostly FEW clouds tonight and tomorrow. There is a possibility for fog development in the early morning hours near TRI but I am not confident that vis will get down to less than 1 mile. Some guidance has a large dew point/temp spread at max cooling around sunrise and some guidance has a 2 or 3 degree spread. With ground moisture present from recent rains, some fog is definitely possible mainly near TRI. Very light winds will become more southerly tomorrow afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 88 66 82 / 0 0 20 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 87 62 79 / 0 10 10 60 Oak Ridge, TN 57 87 62 79 / 0 0 10 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 85 58 82 / 0 0 0 40 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KRS AVIATION...McD