387
FXUS66 KMTR 061118
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
418 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1220 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024

Despite the chilly start to the day, a warming trend will lead to
above normal temperatures by Thursday. Once the warm weather
arrives, it should be pretty persistent through mid month.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1220 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024

The satellite image is pretty clear tonight, with just a few
pockets of orographic clouds in the mountains. These clear skies
will allow enhanced radiational cooling before the sun comes up.
Expect inland temperatures to drop into the low 40s with a few
pockets of upper 30s. Mostly clear skies will prevail through the
morning, allowing temperatures to recover quickly after sunrise.
A weak disturbance will bring some cloud cover and moderate NW
winds back this afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1220 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024

A upper level ridge will set up camp this week, keeping warm and
dry weather in the forecast for the foreseeable future. Thursday
and Friday look like the warmest days of the week, with coastal
highs in the upper 60s and inland highs in the mid-80s. There is
a minor HeatRisk for inland areas beginning Wednesday and
persisting through the forecast period. This will cause concern
for individuals who are extremely sensitive to heat, especially
when outdoors without effective means of cooling or adequate
hydration. With the sharp change from the cool temperatures this
weekend, this week may catch some folks offguard.

An inland ridge will cause offshore flow to develop mid week,
decreasing the relative humidity into the 20-40% range. The
strongest winds will be in the Vaca Range of Napa County, with
gusts up to gale force Wed night-Thu morning. With fuel moisture
still above average, this shouldn`t be a major fire weather
concern, but will act to dry things out as the fire season
approaches.

The Climate Prediction Center forecast shows above normal
temperatures are likely for the next 2 weeks which will likely
trigger the typical summer pattern of coastal stratus after the
offshore wind event ends this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 414 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024

Currently VFR at all terminals. VFR through the TAF period at all
terminals except MRY as the terminal is slated to see the return of
MVFR stratus overnight. Winds will become breezy out of the west
this afternoon with gusts up to 20 knots to be expected.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR and calm. VFR through the TAF
period. Westerly winds will be on the increase through the
afternoon with gusts up to 20 knots to be expected. Low clouds at
FL030-FL050 will likely impact the terminal between 05Z and 11Z.
Winds become more northerly towards the end of the TAF period as
the pressure gradient is forced to tighten as surface high
pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean builds and moves into the
Pacific Northwest.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with light southeasterly
flow at MRY and VFR and calm at SNS. Winds will become breezy out
of the west this afternoon with gusts up to 20 knots to be
expected. MVFR conditions return to MRY in the form of stratus
overnight while SNS looks to stay just above MVFR criteria.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 414 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024

Fair weather and moderate northwesterly winds will prevail today.
Northerly winds will dramatically increase overnight as the
pressure  gradient is forced to tighten as surface high pressure
over the  Eastern Pacific Ocean builds and moves into the Pacific
Northwest.  Gale force gusts will be likely Tuesday and Wednesday,
especially over the outer waters and along the Big Sur Coast.
During this  same time frame, significant wave heights will begin
to build to  heights of up to 15 feet. Needless to say, conditions
will be  extremely hazardous for all but the largest vessels
Tuesday and  Wednesday and extreme caution should be exercised
during this  time.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Watch from late tonight through late Tuesday night for Pt
     Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Flynn
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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