Text Products for FWS Issued by OAX

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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FNUS73 KOAX 231302
FWSOAX

Spot Forecast for Pisgah Grazing Complex Rx Burn...Iowa DNR
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
802 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on April 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Isolated showers remain possible through 9 AM with only a trace of
precip possible. Clouds will decrease later this morning into
afternoon with another day of breezy to windy conditions.

Northwest winds will strengthen to 14 to 23 mph with gusts of 30
to 35 mph. The winds will diminish by this evening. The winds will
combine with minimum relative humidities of 20 to 30 percent to
create areas of high fire danger, especially at locations that
haven`t recently received wetting rainfall.

Much lighter winds are expected on Wednesday with an east or
northeast breeze during the morning, becoming southeast at 5 to 15
mph during the afternoon. Clouds will increase by afternoon with
high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s, and lowest relative
humidities of 25 to 30 percent.

Strongest Possible Wind Speeds on Day of Burn: Gust up to 35 mph

Lowest Possible Relative Humidity on Day of Burn: as low as 24%

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds 8 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 26 mph
                    increasing to 31 mph late in the morning.
Surface winds (mph).Northwest winds 14 to 23 mph. Gusts up to 26
                    mph increasing to 31 mph late in the morning.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 12 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 26
                    mph increasing to 31 mph late in the morning.
Mixing height.......7400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 17 mph increasing to 26 to 32
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (56500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (127800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (159200
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
GFDI................4.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........55  34  13  5   2   2   1   5   2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............58  59  61  62  63  64  64  64  65
RH..............43  37  33  32  31  31  31  31  30
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..12  15  17  17  18  17  18  17  17
20 FT wind gust.16  21  24  25  25  25  24  23  21
Eye lvl wnd dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.9   11  13  13  13  13  13  13  13
Eye lvl wnd gst.12  16  18  19  19  19  18  17  16
Surface wnd dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Surface wnd spd.15  19  21  21  23  21  23  21  21
Surface wnd gst.20  26  30  31  31  31  30  29  26
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 3.7 5.6 6.2 6.6 7.0 7.3 7.4 7.3
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.17  28  31  32  32  30  30  29  26
GFDI............2   3   5   5   6   6   6   5   5
Haines index....6   6   6   6   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100062  92  128 162 186 197 196 186 174

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent). Areas of frost
                    early in the morning.
Min temperature.....Around 37.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Eye level winds.....North winds up to 11 mph shifting to the
                    northeast around 4 mph overnight.
Surface winds (mph).Northeast winds 6 to 19 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 16 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 14 mph
                    in the late evening and overnight, then
                    shifting to the northeast 9 to 10 mph after 3
                    am.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (74800 knot-ft) decreasing to good
                    (39400 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing
                    to poor (0 knot-ft) late in the night in the
                    late evening and overnight.
GFDI................2.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........2      6      12     4      13     22
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............65     60     52     47     43     39
RH..............31     37     49     58     73     84
20 ft wind......NW 15  N 11   N 7    N 6    N 5    NE 5
20 ft wind gust.20     14     8
Eye level wind..NW 11  N 8    N 5    N 4    N 4    NE 4
Eye lvl wnd gst.15     11     6      5
Surface wind....NW 19  N 14   N 9    N 8    N 6    NE 6
Surface wnd gst.25     18     10
Mix hgt (ft)....6800   600    500    400    400    400
Transport wind..NW 25  N 16   N 13   N 12   N 12   NE 10
GFDI............4      2      1      0      0      0
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/1000154    84     5      0      4      4

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Areas of frost
                    early in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........27 percent.
Eye level winds.....East winds around 4 mph shifting to the
                    southeast late in the afternoon.
Surface winds (mph).Southeast winds 6 to 8 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......5600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 7 to 10 mph shifting to the southeast 7 to
                    9 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (39500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
GFDI................1.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........19     18     18     14     22     31
Weather cov.....AREAS
Weather type....FROST  NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............38     41     51     59     62     64
RH..............90     80     57     38     31     29
20 ft wind......NE 5   E 5    E 6    E 5    SE 5   SE 6
20 ft wind gust.                     8      8      10
Eye level wind..NE 4   E 4    E 4    E 4    SE 4   SE 4
Eye lvl wnd gst.              5      6      6      7
Surface wind....NE 6   E 6    E 8    E 6    SE 6   SE 8
Surface wnd gst.                     10     10     12
Mix hgt (ft)....400    800    2200   3900   5200   5600
Transport wind..E 8    E 10   E 7    E 7    SE 7   S 8
GFDI............0      0      0      1      1      1
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/10002      5      13     23     32     39

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs
around 70. Southeast winds around 13 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Showers and chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs
in the mid 70s. Southeast winds around 21 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
mid 50s. Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest winds around 14 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Nicolaisen
Requested by...Jeff Seago
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411943.0/OAX
.DELDT 04/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jeffrey.seago@dnr.iowa.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
