304
FXUS64 KOHX 071737
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1237 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday night)
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Earlier this morning, a weakening area of showers and
thunderstorms was clipping our far northwest. This activity
remained sub severe. And now it`s warm and muggy once again with
current temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. High temperatures
are expected to reach the mid 80s so we will become more unstable
as we reach into the afternoon hours. Dynamics are still quite
weak and afternoon convective coverage will be limited. However,
storms that fire could still reach severe limits as capes increase
into the 2000-2500 j/kg range.

A weakening front will be on approach tonight. This will lead to a
line of convection which will push toward our northwestern counties
around 9 pm or so. Still plenty of instability will be in place
along with some shear as well. The activity will work across the
area and reach our southern counties toward sunrise. Again, all
severe types will be in play but the better chances appear to be
across our northern half where the slight risk resides.

On Wednesday, what appears to be a warm front will be lifting
northward in the morning. This will bring us yet another potential
threat of severe weather through about midday. In the afternoon, the
warm front will shift the better focus of severe to our north across
KY. This may hold through the afternoon but will only serve to allow
us to warm up and destabilize even more.

Wednesday night looks like the biggest of all the severe weather
rounds. The primary catalyst will be a cold front with the fropa
expected late Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Prior to the
fropa, it looks as though convection will fire in the prefrontal
area as well as along and just ahead of the boundary. Excellent
phasing of forcing, instability and shear looks likely. Mid level
lapse rates support large hail so all types of severe are on the
table. Timing looks like from 6 pm through 3 am, so a long night
looks to be in store. Helicities are in the 150-300 range but the
classic type of synoptic spring storm setup is not quite there.
The upper pattern is zonal with some w-e elongation noted with the
surface low. However, with the aforementioned strong phasing, the
tornadic threat is still appreciable. Otherwise, flooding could
also be concern, depending largely on how much rain occurs during
the Wednesday morning/early afternoon earlier round.

Near term temps continue to look warm through Thursday with 60s for
lows and mostly lower 80s for highs. We will cool down some by
Friday morning, behind the front, with upper 40s and lower 50s for
lows.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

In the extended forecast, there will still be a few shower chances
into the weekend along with cooler temperatures. This will be
followed by warmer temps for early next week as some ridging
returns. The cooler temps over the weekend will feature lows upper
40s to lower 50s, warming back up to around 60 degrees next week.
Highs will be in the 70s for the weekend, and then lower 80s next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Warm and moist conditions will serve as fuel for convective
development this taf cycle. Showers and thunderstorms may develop
late this afternoon but should be rather hit or miss. A more
organized band of showers and thunderstorms may move across the
area after 00Z this evening. This round of storms may contain
some gusty winds and small hail. Additional isolated to scattered
activity will pick up once again after 12Z as a warm front lifts
northward. Otherwise, IFR cigs may impact the area mostly between
00Z and 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      70  85  69  85 /  70  80  90  40
Clarksville    68  85  67  82 /  60  80  80  20
Crossville     64  79  63  78 /  80  80  90  80
Columbia       68  85  67  84 /  70  80  90  50
Cookeville     66  81  66  79 /  80  80  90  70
Jamestown      64  80  64  78 /  80  80  90  80
Lawrenceburg   68  85  67  84 /  70  70 100  50
Murfreesboro   68  85  67  84 /  70  80  90  50
Waverly        67  84  66  82 /  60  80  80  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....21