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000
FXUS64 KOUN 140937
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
437 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

With a broad area of 1 to 3 deg C warming of ~850 temps through
this afternoon, highs today will be several degrees warmer than
those seen yesterday over most areas outside of northwest
Oklahoma, where similar highs are expected. The increase/thickening
of high level clouds is expected to occur late enough in the day
to allow widespread mid-upper 80s with some lower 90s as well.
With a minimal rise in dewpoints today (outside of far southern/southeast
Oklahoma) RH values will be lower than yesterday. The weather parameter
that will help keep fire weather concerns confined to the
elevated threat level, will be the wind. During the warmest and
driest part of the day, the wind should be weaker than yesterday,
especially across northwest Oklahoma.

Southerly winds expected to begin an increase in magnitude this
evening and overnight, and with increasing lower and high level
moisture, tonight`s low temperatures will struggle to drop lower
than the 60s at most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Monday evening/overnight still appears to be the main timeframe for
severe weather potential for our forecast area. Given strength of
incoming storm system and the time of year, the probability for
severe storms is fairly high. However, coverage and magnitude of
severe weather is less certain. The parameter space for significant
severe weather is rather limited with questionable forecast
temperatures (augmented by progd cloud cover), timing and
location of ejecting speed max, and quality and depth of lower
level moisture, just to name a few. Some models have a more
substantial EML in place as well, which would yield limited
convective coverage. This EML/cap should erode sufficiently during
the evening/overnight as strong height falls eject off the high
plains. While getting late afternoon/early evening discrete
supercells cannot be ruled out (especially this far out ahead of
the event) a more probable scenario is the development of line
segments or lengthy squall line near and just ahead of pacific
front/dryline during the latter evening and overnight hours as it
races eastward. Additional details and discussion on our severe
weather potential are contained in the latest SPC outlook/SWODY2.

There is also still a fire weather concern early this coming week.
For Monday, there will be a window of low RH and strong winds
across northwest Oklahoma early to mid afternoon, but virtually
all model guidance shifts the dryline west of the 100th meridian
during the late afternoon/peak heating timeframe. On Tuesday,
temperatures will be similar, it will be much drier over a larger
area of northwest and north central Oklahoma, and winds will be
stronger (possibly wind advisory level) as westerly winds mix down
on backside of departing storm system. The caveat will be how
much rain these areas receive Monday night. The chances for
appreciable rainfall across far northwest Oklahoma is low, but the
farther east you go, rain chances increase. In areas that are
stuck behind the expected squall line and see little or no
rainfall Monday night, Tuesday will be the primary day of concern,
fire weather wise.

Medium range models are in better agreement on timing of the cold
front Thursday and Thursday night, and with anticipated post
frontal cloud cover, temperatures expected to be well below
average for next weekend. Models are also similar in developing
southwesterly flow aloft/troughing to our west and southwest.
Minor disturbances in this flow will create pockets of theta-e
advection above the mentioned frontal surface. This will keep
at least low chances for rain late Thursday into the weekend.
While enough elevated instability is progd for an embedded storm
or two, no severe storms are expected during this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 434 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period at most
terminals. Winds will be breezy early today and out of the
southwest, before backing again to the south and weakening over
the afternoon. KDUA could see some MVFR ceilings this morning,
becoming VFR by mid morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  89  65  81  62 /   0   0  20  80
Hobart OK         92  60  83  54 /   0   0  30  80
Wichita Falls TX  89  66  84  60 /   0   0  20  80
Gage OK           92  55  85  54 /   0   0  10  40
Ponca City OK     91  63  83  63 /   0   0  30  90
Durant OK         84  65  80  65 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...13