Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 021721 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1221 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THE UPPER LOW IS NOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA...AND IS FORECAST TO
PUSH SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST INTO EAST TENNESSEE BY THE END OF THE
DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL RIDGING THROUGH THE AREA...THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO DRY WEATHER TODAY. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THE 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THE LOW EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST.
HOWEVER...THE GFS CONTINUES TO TRY TO PUSH A SURFACE TROUGH
WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY...SIMILAR TO WHAT IT
WAS DOING FOR WEDNESDAY IN YESTERDAYS SOLUTION. WILL HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN
BORDER OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY...JUST IN CASE THE GFS IS RIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY.

WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY AND LOTS OF IT FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A NICE WARMING TREND SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS RATHER FLAT WITH
THE WEAKEST OF RIDGES CONTINUING TO NOSE INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL HAMPER/PREVENT LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...SO
THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY WILL ONLY TAKE TEMPERATURES UP
TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE LOOKS OK FOR
HIGHS.

THE PERSISTENT WEAK RIDGING WILL ALSO LIMIT DEWPOINT RECOVERY TO
TRANSPIRATION PROCESS WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO ONLY MODEST INCREASES
IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THEREFORE...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE MAY NOT BE LOW
ENOUGH. TRIED TO UNDERCUT IT A BIT FOR LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS EACH
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

ONCE AGAIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE MUDDLED WITH LOW END POPS DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINITY BETWEEN THE MODELS AND SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. AS
IT TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...TRYING TO TIME THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES
ORIGINATING FROM THE NORTHWEST ARE TRICKY AT BEST. AND THAT IS
ESSENTIALLY WHAT WE ARE DEALING WITH EARLY ON HERE. AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD...WE WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE
TO BUILD OVER OUR CWA. SOME ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND WILL ATTEMPT
TO DIVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR REGION. NOW...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT STAYS DRY...AND THAT HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR A FEW
DAYS/MODEL RUNS...SO FEEL SAFE ENOUGH TO LEAVE IT DRY.

HOWEVER...AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY...MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY TO
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW CONVECTION UPSTREAM TO IMPACT US. THE
GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND MEAN HAVE BEEN SLOWER THEN OTHER MODELS BUT
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT FRIDAY WOULD BE DRY. THE
ECWMF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING ACTIVITY WILL BE ENTERING
THE CWA SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. ONCE THE GFS BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD GATES OPEN AND THE MODEL GENERATES PLENTY
OF QPF ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS PERIODIC WAVES OF ENERGY
PLOW ON THROUGH. THE ECMWF IS MUCH DIFFERENT AND SUGGESTS THAT ONE
WAVE OF CONVECTION PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
LEAVES US DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE REBUILDS
OVER THE REGION. THEN ANOTHER IMPULSE AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT
TRAVELS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER BATCHES OF STORMS. THIS FEATURE IS ACTUALLY
SOMETHING THE GFS SHOWS AS WELL...SO TIMING IS NOT TOO BAD WITH THAT
FEATURE.

THEREFORE...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE PERIODIC CLUSTERS OR
COMPLEXES OF SHOWERS/STORMS THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
EXTENDED. THE PROBLEM IS TRYING TO TIME THEM. TEMPERATURES COULD
PROVE TO BE PROBLEMATIC DEPENDING ON THESE TIMING ISSUES...LEFTOVER
CLOUD COVER...PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE...ETC. SO WILL STICK WITH
THE STATUS QUO FOR NOW UNTIL WE SEE A CLEARER SIGNAL TO LEAN COOLER
OR WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

AS A DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH...MVFR CIGS SHOULD
BECOME VFR AROUND 21-22Z AT KEVV/KOWB...AND AROUND 23-00Z AT
KCGI/KPAH. MVFR VSBYS IN FOG POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN 09-13Z...
OTHERWISE VFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AOB 6 KNOTS
AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...JP


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