Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

000
FXUS63 KPAH 141749
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1249 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The big feature in the short term forecast is obviously, the cold
front and its passage. Before it, Today, we warm up nicely. and
should hit the mid to upper 80s, which will be close to records
(CGI 87/ PAH 88/ EVV 90).

Models are in pretty good agreement that the front will approach
tonight, making its move into the northwest part of the FA between
09z-12z Sunday. It looks like at this time, most of the pcpn will
be right along and behind the front. Still, there is just enough
instability to warrant a continuing mention of thunder. The front
will be south/east of the Ohio river by 15Z, and entirely out of
the region by 18Z, with pcpn winding down and ending within 1-3
hours of its passage, ie by Sunday mid pm.

The air behind the front is cooler and much drier. Dew points in
the 40s will be ushered in on brisk/gusty nwlys Sunday pm, causing
rh values to plummet into the 30s in the SEMO Ozarks. These RH
values will be repeated Monday pm for the area as a whole, albeit
on lighter winds as High pressure takes hold.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Models show surface high pressure centered just east of the PAH
forecast area on Tuesday.  The high will move slowly east, moving
off the central east coast on Wednesday.  An upper level ridge will
build over the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys for the
second half of the work week.  This will lead to dry conditions
through the week with mostly sunny to sunny day and mostly clear
nights.  Southerly winds around the surface high will lead to a slow
warm up through the week, with near seasonal temperatures Tuesday
climbing to around 5 degrees above normal by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Southerly winds around 10 knots this afternoon will gradually
pick up to between 10 and 15 knots tonight with some gusts AOA
20 knots. The exception will be early this evening/around sunset
when winds will reach a lull of 5 to 10 knots. Clouds will
increase tonight with MVFR cigs and vicnity SHRA forecast Sunday
morning as a cold front pushes SE across the region. Visibilities
may go below VFR levels with SHRA and possibly a TSRA or two, but
strength of winds should generally preclude restricted
visibilities, especially outside of SHRA. Winds will shift to NW
late Sunday morning but remain quite gusty throughout the day
Sunday.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...02



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.