Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 021719
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1219 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

The 12Z model consensus continues to advertise high pressure at
the surface and aloft that will keep the area high and dry through
Friday.

Temperatures yesterday climbed more than expected, up close to
the warmer MAV/EC numbers. Model soundings indicate that the only
real inversion will be right at the surface, so warming will be
quick this morning and see no reason why temperatures will not
climb a degree or two higher today. Therefore, trended the
forecast highs toward the warmer GFS/ECMWF-based MOS guidance
today through Friday. Some mid 90s will be possible Thursday and
Friday. With good radiational cooling expected tonight and
Thursday night, lows will continue to drop into at least the upper
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

The general upper-level flow pattern will consist of a ridge
extending from the southern Plains northeast across the Ohio Valley
to New England. This feature should maintain very warm and mainly
dry conditions over our area through the long term. There are a
couple of exceptions to the dry forecast, which will be discussed
below.

On Friday night and Saturday, the upper ridge will be at its
strongest. A surface high pressure ridge will extend southwest from
the Great Lakes into the mid Mississippi Valley. This will ensure a
dry start to the holiday weekend. With 850 mb temps near 20, highs
should reach the lower 90s with plenty of sunshine.

Saturday night and Sunday, the models indicate a weak closed 500 mb
low will develop and/or move west over the southeastern states. The
models have varied considerably over the past week regarding the
timing and location of this feature. The 00z gfs and its ensemble
mean bring the system close enough to warrant small pops Saturday
night and Sunday, mainly along and southeast of the Ohio River. In
response to increasing clouds, the gfs lowers highs a couple degrees
on Sunday. Will follow suit and forecast highs near 90 for Sunday.

Sunday night through Tuesday, the upper ridge will start to break
down as a series of progressive shortwaves pass across the northern
states. Small precip chances will gradually overspread our region
from west to east Monday through Tuesday. An increase in cloudiness
should lower highs to the upper 80s for the most part. Lows will be
mainly in the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Surface high pressure will keep winds light and variable through
the day. As they go calm overnight, some at least MVFR fog is
likely to develop at all sites, similar to this morning. More
cumulus is expected again on Thursday...similar to the level they
are at today. Winds will be light and variable again Thursday...at
least prior to 18Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



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