Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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921
FXUS63 KPAH 110906
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
306 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 306 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A band of very weak echoes has been very persistent across the EVV
Tri State region early this morning. Most short term guidance
diminishes the band before daybreak, but this moisture along with
that which fell late Wednesday will likely result in a few slick
spots on area roads this morning. Elsewhere, leftover moisture
from yesterday`s light snows will be enough to result in some
slick roadways. Will issue an SPS similar to the last one issued
last evening to handle this travel hazard.

Skies should attempt to clear up by midday, but it will be short-
lived as mid-level moisture arrives ahead of tonight`s upper-
level impulse. Highs today lean close to the relatively warm MAV
guidance, but if the clearing does not happen, then the cool MET
numbers may be a better option.

As for tonight`s upper-level impulse, the 00Z GFS and NAM have similar
solutions, keeping any light snows primarily just north of the CWA
late tonight and early Friday. The ECMWF is farther to the
southwest with its swath of light QPF, basically impacting areas
along and east of the Mississippi River. The GEM is in between, as
is the GFS ensemble mean. Confined the light snow, a few tenths,
to the I-64 corridor, but did spread slight chance PoPs southeast
through most of southern Illinois and down through the Pennyrile
region of west Kentucky.

Given the impact that similar very light snows have had this
week, cannot rule out a Winter Weather Advisory late tonight and
early Friday, but confidence in the placement, including the
potential for it to be completely north of our area, is too low
to issue at this time. Cannot find much support for lingering
light precipitation into Friday afternoon, but did leave a slight
chance over southwest Indiana.

Winds will become northerly quickly Friday morning, as the upper-
level disturbance departs. However, the good surge of Arctic high
pressure will lag a few hours behind. Most areas will see highs
Friday in the morning, or early afternoon, with temperatures
falling once the gusty northwest winds kick in. Gusts near 20kts
will be possible Friday afternoon and evening. Highs are on the
warm side of guidance, and may be a bit too warm, depending on how
fast the arctic air arrives.

The strong cold, dry advection Friday night will result in low
temperatures ranging from 10 to 20 from north to south. Wind
chills will drop below zero across the northern half of the area
by 12Z Saturday. Even in the south, wind chills will drop to zero
to 5 above in most areas. North winds will diminish gradually
Saturday, as the surface high approaches. Despite plenty of
sunshine high temperatures Saturday will generally be in the 20s,
with some locations in the north struggling to get out of the
teens.

With the flow aloft relaxing heading into Saturday night, the
surface high will shift quickly east of the area. Winds will veer
to the east, as another upper-level storm system approaches from
the northern Plains/Upper Midwest. The GFS and NAM are slower and
keep any QPF well northwest of the area through 12Z Sunday, but
the ECMWF and GEM are faster and spread substantial QPF southeast
into at least southern Illinois late Saturday night. Tried to
split the difference, having some very light snow into the
northwestern border regions of southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois. PoPs are only 20-30% due to the lack of model agreement.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

The extended period will start out with very dry arctic air near the
surface and cloudy skies. The models agree that there will be a
wintry event mainly Sunday/Sunday night, but timing differences
remain as to beginning and ending times, and QPF. However, the 00Z
model solutions seemed to agree a bit better on the surface pattern,
i.e. the eventual development of low pressure across the Deep South,
and not in our general vicinity.

A mid level shortwave is progged by the medium range models to dig
into the Plains states on Sunday. This will provide a southwesterly
low level fetch for the PAH forecast area, increasing the amount of
moisture in the column to be lifted, so pcpn should eventually reach
the ground sometime during the day. Thermal profiles appear to favor
the pcpn type to be snow Sunday/Sunday night. It appears that the
snow may change briefly to a wintry mix Monday morning, then just
rain should fall over most of the PAH forecast area by Monday
afternoon (northernmost counties will take longer to change over).
Highs are expected to be mostly in the 40s Monday afternoon. As the
atmosphere cools again Monday night, there might be a changeover
back to snow in the eastern half of the region before ending, with
very minor accumulations possible.

At this time, we will forecast the possibility of 2-4 inches of
total snow accumulation with this event, the greatest amounts being
in the northern half of the region. This figure may fluctuate over
time.

There will be a general warming trend throughout the extended
forecast period as mid level heights begin to rise. At this time,
the remainder of the forecast (after Monday night) is calling for no
pcpn, and highs eventually reaching the 50s, with lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1129 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR conditions will dominate through the forecast period as the
current system moves away from the area.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...Smith



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