Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 172240
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
540 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 538 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

A cluster of convection over Webster and Hopkins Counties will
move quickly east out of the region, gobbling up mid and upper 70
dewpoints on its way. This will leave scattered convection to its
south to the TN border for the next few hours. Elsewhere, moisture
is limited and temperatures have been slow to recover from morning
cloud cover and precipitation. Cannot rule out a stray storm
producing some strong wind gusts over west Kentucky, but locally
heavy rainfall and lightning will be the primary concerns.

Some of the guidance is spitting out some isolated showers or
storms over the Evansville Tri State early this evening, but it
will more likely be dry. Left the slightest of chances up there
into the evening. The entire are should be dry by 06Z, and dry
conditions are then forecast through Friday evening. There will
not be much of a push to the front tonight, so winds may just
become light and variable over much of the area overnight. If
this occurs, some fog development will be possible, especially in
areas that received rainfall this afternoon.

A compact upper-level storm system will kick off some convection
over northern/Central Missouri late Friday or Friday evening. This
activity will move/spread south/southeast toward our region
overnight. The consensus of 12Z and later guidance is for this
activity to mostly dissipate before reaching the area, but a few
showers or storms may just reach our far northwest territories by
12Z Saturday. Left a slight chance over much of the area Saturday
morning, but there has been a marked drying trend in the most
recent guidance for Saturday.

As for temperatures, leaned toward the warm side of guidance for
lows tonight due to the lack of a decent push with the cold
front. Also went on the warm side of guidance for highs Friday and
Saturday with lots of sun and a somewhat drier air mass.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Medium confidence in the extended as models continue to come into
better agreement.

High pressure over the Atlantic coast will retrograde or build west
ward into the region. Also by Sunday a cold front will have moved
south of the Ohio and Mid Mississippi River Valleys...allowing high
pressure to build in at the surface early in the week. This has also
reduced expected cloud cover for early in the week as well as rain
chances. However we still have a very low chance mainly west of the
Mississippi River Monday afternoon. This will definitely have an
impact on sky cover for the rest of the area should any storms form
to our west. The models are also hinting at an Meso scale convective
system (MCS) forming overnight in northern MO and IA. However the
500 mb flow is nearly zonal with the 700 mb flow to the northeast.
This should keep most of the debris clouds from this system well to
our north. We will continue to monitor closely but for now we have a
fairly reasonable chance of observing the eclipse. This will
continue to change as we near the event. Dew points will take a dive
Sunday as the cold front pushes south of the area. However this will
be short lived as the southerly flow rapidly returns to around 70
Monday. Heat index values will be in the middle 90s Monday. By
Tuesday we will have a very weak warm front lift through the region
as high pressure builds even farther to south and west. This will
allow an upper or mid level trough with a surface reflection of a
cold front to move through the area creating rain chances for the
middle of the week. Thursday the cold front will move south of the
area bringing slightly cooler and drier air late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 538 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Scattered to broken bases in the low VFR range will linger into
the evening, but it looks like convective chances wane with the
setting sun and the mcv/boundary pushing most activity east of the
terminals at this writing. Patchy overnight fog possible,
particularly east, then nwlys develop tmrw in post
frontal/boundary environ with diurnal bases around 4.5K FT AGL
developing, mainly scattered.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$



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