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000
FXUS63 KPAH 161947
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
247 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN AN UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN
TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST OFF TO
OUR NORTH AS MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTING NORTHEAST
OVER THE REGION. ON AN OFF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY.  KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORIES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. BETTER CHANCES
WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SREF AND NAM SHOW A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED QPF WITH THE PAH FA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A MORE DEFINED SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...AND GENERATE MUCH HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. THOUGH HEAVY
RAIN MAY OCCUR WITH STORMS DUE TO SOUNDINGS INDICATING PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS OF WELL OVER AN INCH...AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LOWER DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WLL AGAIN BE A LITTLE BETTER FOR
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH DAYTIME
HEATING.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS FARTHER TO
OUR EAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL
VALUES WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD WITH THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
CLOUDS...WITH READINGS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

FOR THE MOST PART...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
MODELS BUILD AN H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...SO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK SLIM TO NONE SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MONDAY OVER
ALL EXCEPT THE NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA.

THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES PICK BACK UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE
REGION. MODEL WISE...TENDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SINCE IT
HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT LONG TERM MODEL OF LATE. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF THUNDER WHEREVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA FROM 12-18Z. VCTS POSSIBLE AT
KCGI/KPAH FROM 21-00Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 10-15 KTS
EXPECTED TO BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KTS AFT 10Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP