Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 060516 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1116 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1116 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1247 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Surface High pressure will migrate eastward across the Tennessee
Valley with time. This will allow our high temps to moderate
nicely, into the 50s over the weekend.

Meanwhile, a broader troffing action begins aloft, as energy now
spilling out of the southern Rockies dives across the Red River
valley later today, and carves the beginning of a mean upper level
trof over the Mississippi valley this weekend. This will set the
express train up for a plunge of much colder air to come, in the
longer term. As this transition occurs, chance cat Pops enter the
forecast by Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1247 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Sunday night, a strong 5220 meter H5 low digs plunges out of
central Canada and into/across the Great Lakes. It plumments 850
mb temps about 10C overnight. Surface temps still in the 40s the
first half of the night, will melt any falling crystals before the
air works down to the surface late in the night...by then...the
precipitating moisture all but gone.

However, on Monday... and even into Tuesday...as the Low slings
its way slowly across the mid-upper Ohio river valley...wrap
around moisture will precipitate/spit out from time to time some light
frozen qpf measured in the hundredths. As the thermal profile
steepens in the colder air, LSR starting at 10 to 1 transition to
15 to 1, which means we maybe could get some minor amounts (half
inch or so) for our eastern counties over the Monday Night-Tuesday
time frame, if all pans out same.

Even though Pcpn winds down by Tue night, as the Low spins on
out/further and further away...mean Long Wave troffing aloft keeps
coolish temps around even as surface High pressure works in later
in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1116 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

High pressure should produce VFR conditions at all sites through
the period. Light and variable winds overnight should pick up out
of the south southwest AOB 5 knots early Saturday morning.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...JP


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