Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 042347

647 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015

Issued at 647 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 223 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015

Latest visible satellite shows clouds continuing to decrease from
the east, with some thinning beginning over extreme southeast
Missouri, and expect this trend to continue into this evening.
Relative humidity time heights indicate much of this low level
moisture will linger over the next few days across the PAH
forecast area. This will likely lead to some fog development
overnight, and cumulus development during the day. Models show
weak upper level ridging over our region into mid week, which will
keep us dry with a warming trend, with temperatures already above
normal by Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015

Wednesday through Thursday should be dry as the models weaken a mid
level ridge across the area while surface high pressure moves east.
The models show a mid level wave developing over the northern tier
of states, dropping SE Thursday through Friday. The GFS and slightly
faster versions of the ECMWF were used for timing. Increasing
convective chances from NW to SE Thursday night, PoPs area wide
Friday with a front moving through. Models have it out of here by
Friday night. Kept slights SE 1/2 but that`s probably overdone. Also
removed all weekend PoPs given the models aggressive trend toward a
drier solution. Temps will be a blend of MOS and existing numbers.


Issued at 647 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015

KEVV and KOWB are clear, have had good mixing all afternoon, and
should keep a northeast breeze through the night, so significant
fog develop is not likely there. Latest satellite imagery
indicates that clearing may move south through KCGI fairly
quickly, but the whole area of MVFR clouds appears to be expanding
just south of there. Would not be at all surprised to see the MVFR
ceilings expand back to KPAH, and linger around KCGI through the
night. However, if they don`t, at least patchy dense fog is very
likely. The pressure gradient weakens through the night, but it
could still support a light wind, so will try not to go prevailing
LIFR or lower conditions until things play out a bit this evening.




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