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000
FXUS63 KPAH 140833
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
333 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

AS EXPECTED...SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASED MARKEDLY
OVERNIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS ABOUT 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME
LAST NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS...SATELLITE...AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE
THIS IS AN UNSEASONABLY DRY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. SURFACE DEW
POINTS WERE ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S DOWN TO NE TEXAS
AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA AT 08Z. SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLOUDLESS THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH EXCELLENT DRYING CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW RH AND
GUSTY WINDS. FORTUNATELY...FIRE WEATHER IS NOT A MAJOR CONCERN DUE
TO GREEN FUELS AND A RATHER WET SPRING.

IN ACCORDANCE WITH LOCAL POLICY...WILL ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
FOR BOATERS TODAY DUE TO SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE THE 15 MPH CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON. DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES UP TO ABOUT 900 MB WILL
RESULT IN MIXING DOWN OF SOME 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS. A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE MID
80S TODAY. OTHERWISE...850 MB TEMPS NEAR 20 CELSIUS WOULD INDICATE
A WARMER DAY.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THERE WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SW INDIANA AND SE ILLINOIS. THEREFORE...HIGHS MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THOSE AREAS. PLACES SOUTH AND WEST OF
KPAH MAY BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT CROSSES THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY. DUE TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ABUNDANT
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS...THERMODYNAMICS DO NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION ON THURSDAY. POPS WILL BE KEPT ONLY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE ACROSS SW INDIANA AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...CLOSER TO A SURFACE
COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THE FRONT WILL COME DOWN
TO ABOUT THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING OUT ON
THURSDAY. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS
ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING WILL RESEMBLE A BROKEN
RECORD...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SOME MODEST HUMIDITY FOR
A CHANGE.

RIDGING ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT THE
GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION AT TIMES ACROSS
DIFFERENT PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR MCS
ACTIVITY WOULD BE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG I-64.
HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH AND EAST IN THESE TIME
PERIODS...BUT OTHERWISE NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK A NEARLY OCCLUDED STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS SYSTEM
COULD BRING SOME CONVECTION TO MAINLY SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BOTH MODELS EVENTUALLY
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT OR OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION.

THE GFS SWINGS A NEGATIVE-TILT SHORT WAVE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS A MORE POSITIVE TILT AND IS ABOUT 12
HOURS SLOWER. TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR BOTH POSSIBILITIES BY SPREADING
GOOD CHANCE POPS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SEVERE WEATHER WHENEVER THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES. GIVEN THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED...ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY COULD POSE A PULSY SEVERE THREAT.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...NEARLY CLOUD FREE SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL
BE WINDS...WHICH WILL BE RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KTS ARE LIKELY IN THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL INHIBIT THE FORMATION OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH LOSS
OF HEATING AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.

MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....DRS
AVIATION...MY