Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 292236
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
536 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 533 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

A weak surface trough extended from roughly Mount Carmel to Marion
Illinois to Cape Girardeau and Poplar Bluff Missouri early this
afternoon. Forcing is rather weak, but with surface-based CAPE
values from 2500-3000 J/kg, isolated thunderstorms will remain
possible along and ahead of the trough through the remainder of
the afternoon. A small chance of thunderstorms continues into
early evening-- mainly across portions of southern Indiana and
east of the Land Between the Lakes in western Kentucky.

The remainder of the night into Tuesday, weak ridging aloft will
work its way east from the Plains into the Middle Mississippi and
Lower Ohio Valleys as high pressure take hold at the surface. A
somewhat drier atmospheric profile beneath this ridge should
result in mainly dry conditions through the period, though a few
showers and storms cannot be completely ruled out across the Ozark
foothills of southeast Missouri.

Energy currently over the Pacific Northwest will develop into an
upper level low as it shifts east into the northern Plains. As the
trough south of this low approaches, chances for showers and
thunderstorms will begin to increase in earnest from west to east
by late Tuesday night into mid week.

Temperatures will be quite warm through the near term. Expect
highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the lower to mid 60s.
This is in the ballpark of a model consensus blend.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Thunderstorm chances will increase through the middle part of the
week as a cold front pushes SE across the FA. The passage of the
cold front late in the week is somewhat uncertain, at least in its
potentially lingering impacts on the S/SE part of the FA. Will lean
toward the latest GFS solution of slowing the frontal passage and
keeping it close enough to continue low POPs in the S/SE through at
least Thu night. Once a second 500mb trough sweeps through the OH
Valley Friday the front should be far enough south to negate the
need for continued POPs.

Models differ somewhat on timing of another cold front late next
weekend, but thunderstorm chances will be introduced beginning
Sunday as all models have it close enough by then to warrant POPs.
Otherwise the summerlike pattern will transition to cooler/slightly
below normal temps after Wednesday as the impacts of the post
frontal air occur.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 533 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Isolated diurnal convection will continue to impact mainly KOWB
into the early evening, before loss of fuel as sun sets spells its
end. Meanwhile, some lower VFR bases may move into KCGI/KPAH as
they blow off convection to the south. Ultimately overnight
conditions will dry and clouds will scatter. Patchy fog may offer
MVFR restrictions late tonight-early tmrw, before High pressure
moves in overhead and VFR with light/variable winds prevails tmrw.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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