Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 270447

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1147 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Updated for 06Z aviation forecast discussion.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Prefrontal warming is greater than blended models, and slight
adjustments were made to the immediate term grids to reflect that.

The cold front stretches from the IA/IL border across northwest
MO, and is making its approach on the PAH FA. It has been
consistently modeled to increase clouds and spread Pops across the
PAH FA as it makes its passage tonight. While model differences
exist, all suggest at least marginally supportive mention of
thunder is warranted, even though it does appear that the two main
convective areas of pcpn will break largely just to our north, and
just to our south. This may taper pops off a tad and drive them
largely in the chance category range through the overnight hours,
but we have collaboratively blended to fit the pic.

Tmrw, cooler temps funnel in as the post frontal airmass migrates
across the mid Mississippi river valley. Then after this briefly
cooler day where we drop back to the 60s and low 70s for highs and
the 40s for lows, we`ll bounce right back to 70s/50s to finish out
the week, beginning a warm trend that looks to stay awhile.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Confidence continues to rise with the extended with the dry trend
and warmer temperatures looking more solid.

The front that was progged to move through the area early in the
weekend now appears to stay just north of the region. This is most
likely due to the upper level ridging centered over Texas that
slowly moves into the central Gulf states. The next chance of
rain will be next week at the earliest. However available moisture
will be scant at best as the high pressure at the surface and
aloft will keep the Gulf closed for the most part. Although late
in the period there could be some moisture return late in the
forecast as the high slowly drifts east. By Tuesday of next week a
cold front is still forecast to move into the area but once again
the available moisture is limited. But with high pressure to the
north of this front it should have better odds to make it through
the region. We may have to include some low end pops day 6/Tuesday
but confidence in rainfall would be minimal at best. The I-64
corridor would be the best chance for any measurable rain. As for
temperatures...the drier air is much easier to heat up than moist
air. Therefore will increase temps a little in the extended to
accommodate the dry air.


Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Scattered rain showers will be spotty early in the period but
should come to an end by 09-10Z. Frontal boundary has yet to
arrive but will do so during the overnight period and into
Thursday morning. Behind the winds shifting to the northwest,
cigs will likely drop to MVFR and remain there for most of the
morning. We should see cigs scatter out/become VFR after 18Z.
Winds will remain out of the northwest aob 10 kts. Winds will
become rather light to calm Thursday night which will likely set
the stage for some fog beyond this TAF period.



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