000
FXUS63 KPAH 142246
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
546 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS CALM TONIGHT...WITH SOME DEBRIS
HIGH AND POSSIBLY MID CLOUD MOVING SE ACROSS THE AREA AT TIMES OFF
CONVECTION OVER IOWA INTO NRN MISSOURI. WILL CARRY LOW TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS MORNINGS VALUES.

LOW CHANCE POPS OF CONVECTION SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE NRN REACHES OF
OUR CWFA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CHANCE WILL BE AREA WIDE ON SUNDAY AS SOME
ASSEMBLANCE OF A MID LEVEL WAVES MOVES ESE AND ACROSS THE AREA.
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A
LULL AS THE NEXT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...AS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE
MODELS TAKES SHAPE AND MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

WITH THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE CLOSED LOW OVER
WESTERN TEXAS THIS FRIDAY WILL HAVE BECOME AN OPEN WAVE SHEARED OUT
AND PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION ALONG THE BASE OF THE WESTERLIES.
HOWEVER...A CENTRAL CANADIAN SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY THE
WESTERLIES INTO A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH...ENHANCING LIFT ALONG A
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH A LONG AXIS COMPONENT EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM WEST
TO EAST WILL SERVE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. GIVEN TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SHEAR AND MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE AREA...THE SIGNAL FOR SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DEBATE AS TO WHETHER
THE EFFECTIVE RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO LIMIT POPS/WEATHER ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT A LINGERING SMALL
CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE KENTUCKY PENNYRILE AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

DRY CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN THE RULE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS SOME DOUBT AS TO HOW WELL MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE WITH
TIME. INTRODUCED A LOW POP FOR FRIDAY AN FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AND CLOUD COVER/RAIN
CHANCES WILL IMPACT THE EFFECTIVE DIURNAL RANGE ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

WITH RESPECT TO MODEL GUIDANCE...LEANED MORE HEAVILY TO THE GFS
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...ALONG WITH BLENDING WITH THE NAM-WRF AND GFS
GUIDANCE. KEPT THE TREND OF SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE
COMPARED TO A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 546 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

NERLY WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND START UP AGAIN SAT
MORNING OUT OF THE SW AND GENERALLY BELOW 10 KTS. ONLY CLOUDS WILL
BE MAINLY THE HIGH VARIETY...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM CONVECTION
OVER IA...AND NRN PARTS OF MO AND IL.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$