Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 250745
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
145 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 145 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

After record breaking temperatures yesterday, today will see the
much cooler air working into the Quad State, with highs topping
out some 30 degrees colder. And that`s with a mix of cyclonic
cloud and sun, as a better clear out and the heart of the colder
air won`t work in til tonight, as surface High pressure works
across the Tennessee valley. Lows will likewise be some 30 to even
35 degrees colder than the previous night, with bottom out numbers
in the hard freeze mid 20s. Everyone should be falling to or below
freezing by late this evening, so a good 6 or 7 hours of sub
freezing temperatures can be expected tonight.

Surface dew points in the teens will help relative humidity
values plummet through the 30s percentile, despite the cooler
temperatures this afternoon. For the SEMO Ozarks, mid to upper
20s relative humidity minimums might be realized. And with the
surface ridge still to the West for much of the day, gradient
winds/gusts in/thru the teens mph will combine with these low rh
values to heighten the fire danger this afternoon.

As the High shifts east Sunday, return flow southerlies regenerate
a warm air advection pattern that results in returning rain
chances by the afternoon. The warm and moist air advection
continues/deepens thru Sunday night into Monday morning, with pcpn
chances peaking in the likely and even low categorical (south)
range. After a brief pause Monday afternoon, another short
wave/energy rotates in and spikes pcpn chances again into the
likely category. This second bout starts to destabilize the
atmosphere a little by late Monday night, as a warm front
generates and returns north. But at this writing, it looks like
convective instability fields supportive of thunder look like
remain just to our south through the duration of the short term
forecast period/ie Monday Night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 206 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Average to below average confidence in the short term due to so-so
model agreement.

At the beginning of the long term period models are showing a system
developing over the southern plains with an area of overrunning
precipitation developing and spreading to the north and east. Models
not in good agreement on how quickly the precipitation spreads
into/across our CWA. Precipitation chances max out Monday night with
the approach and passage of the warm front associated with this
system.

Precipitation chances drop off somewhat on Tuesday with our region
being in the warm sector but instability increases so put in mention
of thunder. Tuesday night precipitation chances increase with the
passage of the cold front associated with the aforementioned system.
Still plenty of instability in place so continued with the mention
of thunder.

The outcome for Wednesday is still out there because models in
really bad agreement. The GFS has all precipitation east of our CWA
by Wednesday but the ECMWF lingers it over much of the area all day.
Just went with what Forecast Builder provided which looks more like
the ECMWF.

High pressure in the wake of the front should keep the region dry
and cooler Wednesday night and Thursday. Thursday night a cold front
is forecast to cross the region but with very limited moisture so no
precipitation expected at this time, although the ECMWF cranks out.
a tad of QPF just north of our CWA during that period.

High pressure building back across the region on Friday should keep
it dry through the rest of the period.

Temperatures well above normal Monday night through Tuesday night,
then just a few degrees above normal in the rest of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 145 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Satellite trends suggest a ribbon of 2ndary cyclone induced low
VFR to MVFR CIGS will rotate across the flight terminals thru the
first half of the day today. Otherwise, gusty west ot northwest
winds continue, until a surface high pressure ridge moves in
toward the end of the day and across the Tennessee valley tonight
and relaxes the gradient while also clearing the sky.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$


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