Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 061731
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1131 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1124 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 228 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

A dry and chilly pattern is expected the rest of the workweek. A
large 500 mb vortex over southeast Canada looks like it has become
a semi-permanent fixture. Persistent northwest flow aloft will
bring a series of mainly dry cold fronts across our region.

The first dry cold front will move southeast across our region
tonight. In advance of the front, today will be sunny and cool
with locally gusty west winds. Highs are forecast to reach 50 in
many areas. Temperatures will chill down tonight as winds turn
northwest behind the front. A period of mid level clouds will
accompany the front, but moisture appears too limited for precip.
Lows tonight will be in the 20s.

Although Thursday will be sunny, northwest winds will usher in the
coldest air so far this season. Highs will only be in the 30s. The
models indicate 850 mb temps will be from minus 10 to minus 14
Thursday, indicating this is not a shallow cold air mass. Winds
will become light Thursday night, promoting strong radiational
cooling. Lows in the dry air mass should fall into the teens in
most locations.

On Friday and Friday night, an arctic 500 mb shortwave will dig
southeast into the Great Lakes region. Ahead of this feature and
its associated cold front, our low level winds will back into the
southwest. Clouds will increase late Friday and Friday night, but
precipitation is not expected before daybreak. Temperatures will
be just a tad warmer under the southwest wind flow. Highs will be
mainly 35 to 40 Friday, with overnight lows in the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

A deep mid/upper level trough will be over the eastern half of
the U.S. at the start of the period but the trough axis will shift
east which will cause upper level heights to rise resulting in
gradually rising temperatures after a cold start to our weekend.

We continue to closely monitor the potential for some flurries
and/or light snow to start out the period on Saturday. Models
continue to have timing as well as spatial inconsistencies from
model run to model run. Whatever happens will be rather light in
nature however. The GFS seems to have backed off the most with
regards to QPF and indicates basically a non event on Saturday.
The 12Z/00Z ECMWF and to some extent the Canadian model do show
some signal toward a light QPF event Saturday morning possibly
extending into Saturday afternoon for mainly our far eastern
counties. We will not see much difference in high temperatures
between Friday and Saturday, with readings on Saturday remaining
in the mid to upper 30s north to lower 40s south.

By Saturday evening, any precipitation should be to our east as the
trough shifts eastward during the night. After a cold start to the
morning on Sunday with lows in the lower 20s, we should rebound
nicely into the 40s by Sunday afternoon as we see 850mb temperatures
soar to near zero degrees by 00Z Monday in association with some
decent warm air advection. The warm air advection process will
continue into Monday, which pushes our high temperatures into the
50s in many locations with dry weather continuing.

There are some intermittent signals toward the end of the period of
precipitation chances, but with the pattern in place, the timing and
placement of precip chances will likely change many times over the
next few days, so will leave any inherited POPs low at this point as
confidence is low. As far as temperatures, we could see another dip
back into the 30s for highs for a good part of the area on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1124 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Mainly clear skies are expected today. Some increase in mid level
clouds is expected tonight as a precip-free arctic front moves
into the region from the northwest. No vsby restrictions are
expected with the frontal passage. West winds around 10 kts
today/this evening will shift northwesterly toward morning then
increase with gusts around 20 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...GM



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