Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 261939
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
139 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM...A FEW FLURRIES OR SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOWS COULD RESULT IN TRACE AMOUNTS TO A LIGHT DUSTING THRU EARLY
EVENING. AFTERWARD...CLOUDS MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...EVEN FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT (EAST)...BUT SOME CLEARING MAY
ULTIMATELY OCCUR...PARTICULARLY LATE. WE TRIED TO COLLABORATE THIS
GRADUAL WEST TO EAST TRENDING WITH OUR NEIGHBORS APPROPRIATELY.

THE MAIN THING ABOUT TONIGHT WILL BE THE BRUTALLY COLD ARCTIC
AIRMASS THAT PLUNGES IN ON THE STRENGTH OF THE 1040+ MB SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WEDGES ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI TO
OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY. WE FORECAST A RECORD LOW OF 11
AT PADUCAH (RECORD IS 14 SET IN 1963) AND A NEAR RECORD LOW OF 8
AT EVANSVILLE (RECORD IS 4 SET IN 1934). COMBINED WITH THE
WIND...WE`LL SEE WIND CHILLS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AS WELL.

THE SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES EASTWARD AND CENTERS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES HERE MEAN TEMPS ONLY
CLIMB 10 TO 15 DEGREES TO THEIR PM HIGHS...EVEN WITH SUNSHINE.
UPPER TEENS (NORTH) TO MID 20S (SOUTH) WILL BE COMMONPLACE MAX
TEMPS FRIDAY.

THAT SETS THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER RECORD OR NEAR RECORD COLD
TEMPERATURE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...EVEN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVING FURTHER EASTWARD...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER
TEENS FORECAST AGAIN. THE RECORD LOW AT PAH IS 17 (1993) AND EVV
IS 4 (1993) FOR FEB 28TH...AND WE FORECAST A LOW OF 13 AND 10
RESPECTIVELY FOR OUR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING LOWS. WIND
CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL ALSO BE NEAR
OR BELOW ZERO AGAIN.

SATURDAY DAYTIME...WE START TO MODERATE. NORTHERN REACHES OF THE
QUAD STATE WILL SEE THE MERCURY FLIRT WITH 32 DEGREES FOR THEIR
MAX...WHILE IN THE SOUTH...THE MERCURY MAKES A RUN ON HITTING THE
40 DEGREE MARK. IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE HIGH WILL
HOLD OFF TIL AFTER 00Z SUNDAY TO MAKE ITS APPEARANCE...SO AT LEAST
A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND APPEARS IN ORDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BULK OF IT OCCURRING TO OUR
WEST AND NORTH. LOW LEVELS APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY DRY DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE EVENING BUT MOISTEN UP NICELY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN IL,
SOUTHWEST IN AND SEMO. ALTHOUGH WAA WILL BE ONGOING...WE WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO DEAL WITH FREEZING PRECIPITATION AT THE ONSET SINCE
WE WILL BE STARTING OUT RATHER COLD. WHILE WE MAY SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES EARLY IN THE EVENING, A WARM LAYER ALOFT WOULD MEAN
MORE OF A CHANCE FOR SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN LATER ON. HOWEVER,
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIRLY QUICK WARM UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHICH SHOULD MEAN A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN BY SOMETIME SUNDAY
MORNING.

NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE TIMING AN INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF IS FASTER IN BRINGING IT THROUGH WHILE
THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT SLOWER. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON WHEN THE
HIGHEST POPS SHOULD BE ADVERTISED...I.E. SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
COLD AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE THE COLD AIR INFILTRATES BUT WILL
SHOW A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY JUST IN CASE.

AS WAS SEEN YESTERDAY...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE SHOULD HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN. BUT THAT BREAK
IS DEFINITELY BRIEF AS WE COULD SEE PRECIPITATION SNEAK BACK INTO
THE REGION AS EARLY AS 00Z TUESDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS
IN THE ROCKIES AND THEN MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN
THE WEEK. OF COURSE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW BUT MODELS AGREE ON AGGRESSIVELY BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK
INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. SOUNDINGS, THICKNESS VALUES AND RAW
MODEL SFC TEMPS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL
LIQUID AS THIS PRECIPITATION RETURNS. THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF PERIOD
WHERE SOME FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET...EARLY IN THE EVENING ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR NORTH.

AS THE SFC LOW MOVES TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN SOME
THUNDER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION BUT WHEN EXACTLY AND WHERE
REMAINS TO BE SEEN AS MODELS OBTAIN A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LOW
PLACEMENT. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PATH OF THE SFC LOW...WINDS COULD
BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THAT WOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REALLY RAMP UP. WE WILL KEEP THINGS CONSERVATIVE FOR
NOW BUT SEEING HOW THE NEW EURO HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE GFS...WILL
RAISE TEMPS. MODELS AGREE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT SOMETIME
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 120 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MVFR CIGS PREVAIL EARLY WITH TEMPORARY MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY NORTH/EAST. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE TIL
AROUND SUNSET...AFTER WHICH CIGS WILL LINGER IN THE MVFR-LOW VFR
THRESHOLDS. CIGS SHOULD BE ABOVE EXTRA FUEL MINS OF 2K FEET BY MID
EVENING...AND MAY SCATTER OVERNIGHT. THIS TREND WILL OCCUR FIRST
WEST (KCGI) AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF CLEARING AS FAR EAST AS
KEVV/KOWB. DIURNAL HEATING MAY REIGNITE A SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL
BKN MVFR DECK BY LATE IN THE PLANNING PERIOD. NORTHERLIES WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE EFFECTIVE VALID TIME OF THE FORECAST...BUT
GUSTS SHOULD CURTAIL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$


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