Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 242130
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
430 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 426 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Updated Aviation section for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Fair weather high pressure will stay in control through the
weekend. Unlike the last high pressure, which came southeast of
Canada, this one will build in from the west and will be quite a
bit milder. Expect warm and pleasant afternoons with highs well
in the 70s to around 80, and overnight lows down in the upper 40s
to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

High pressure will move off the southeast coast on Monday, then
models show a low pressure system moving into the Great Lakes region
by 12z Tuesday.  GFS, ECMWF and GEM bring the associated cold front
just northwest of our region by 12z Tuesday.  ECMWF is about 6 hours
faster bringing some precip into our far west/northwest counties
before 12z Tuesday, while GFS/GEM hold off until after 12z, but
models are in much better agreement overall.  Continued with some
small pops for our far west/northwest counties late Monday night,
then high chance pops across the entire PAH forecast area Tuesday.
By 12z Wednesday, models show the front southeast of our region, so
our northwest counties should be dry Tuesday night, with precip
tapering off across the rest of our counties from northwest to
southeast Tuesday night into early Wednesday.  After dry conditions
Wednesday night, models show a weak upper level trof, and some show
a smattering of precip.  Went with some slight chance pops for
showers for now.  Dry conditions are expected for Friday.

With gusty south winds and some sunshine, temperatures will remain
well above normal Monday and Monday night.  A cool down will begin
Tuesday with the clouds and precip and especially Tuesday night into
Wednesday behind the cold front.  Readings for the end of the work
week will be near to slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 426 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Models take the mid and upper moisture just upstream
into/overtop the terminals later tonight-tmrw, as a front makes
passage through the mid Mississippi river valley. Weak warm
advection ahead of this could lead to some MVFR restrictions to
vsbys or with cigs tonight, with gradually improving flight
conditions anticipated through the course of the day tmrw.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$






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