Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 272036
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
336 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread frost and a light freeze is expected tonight into
  Tuesday morning.

- A warming trend is expected to begin Thursday. The entire
  region will see well above normal temperatures, with highs
  from the middle 70s to near 80 degrees Saturday through
  Monday.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms return Saturday evening
  and continue through Sunday night, mainly in the north and
  east.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to
  accompany a cold frontal passage at some point Monday into
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Surface high pressure will settle over the region tonight,
leading to clear and calm conditions. Surface dewpoints will be
in the upper 20s to lower 30s, so temperatures should drop to
near the freezing mark or a few degrees below throughout the
area by daybreak Thursday. Regardless of the freezing
temperatures, the entire region should have a widespread frost.
Although we are not issuing Freeze/Frost headlines yet, but
decided to issue a Special Weather Statement to cover the threat
to early season vegetation.

An upper level ridge will build over the region Thursday into
Friday, while a trough settles in from southern California
northeast to the northern Rockies. At the surface, the primary
boundary will set up across northern Illinois by Friday. This
boundary will be the primary focus for convective development
as impulses ride over the lower amplitude ridge. There is some
potential that it will sag south into the Quad State, but
confidence in convectively-induced frontal movements is low.
Regardless, the NBM has PoPs beginning Saturday evening and
continuing through the remainder of the weekend, mainly over
northern and eastern portions of the Quad State.

As we head toward the weekend, south winds will increase and
become quite gusty at times. This will lead to a quick warm up
to above normal temperatures by Friday. Highs in the 70s will be
common from Friday through Sunday, and a few 80 degree readings
will be possible. The temperature forecast will obviously be
impacted by any frontal intrusions and any associated
convection.

The 12Z guidance continues to bring a northern stream trough
southeastward toward the Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday.
However, it struggles to determine whether the northern stream
trough will phase with the southwest low/trough. The
interaction of these two features will determine how quickly the
cold front passes through the region and possibly how much
severe weather or heavy rainfall potential will accompany it.
There is some guidance that holds the upper trough back until
Tuesday night and Wednesday, so PoPs could ultimately be dragged
out even further than they are now. We will continue to monitor
this period for signs of more impactful weather, but it will
likely take some time for guidance to converge upon a more
common solution.

Surface high pressure will settle in behind the early week storm
system and eventually result in more normal temperatures for the
Quad State next Wednesday or Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

The TAFs are VFR. Low VFR ceilings are rapidly breaking up and
shifting east of the area, leaving clear skies across the TAF
sites through the period. Winds will be light, as surface high
pressure settles overhead.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS


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