Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 121715 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1215 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 131 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

Our airmass will heat up and soup up over the next 24-48 hours.
This will allow a diurnal flare of pops, esp as some energy in the
upper levels drops down from the north, i.e. our northern counties
will see the pops today-tmrw. Pops will be small, however, at
least this weekend, with little to drive them beyond the heat/humidity
and small ptn of energy aloft that dips down and touches our nrn
counties.

Sunday night-Monday offer heightened pop chances, as a cold front
drops down in a broader troffing action that takes place over the
upper Midwest. Offering this feature, with upper level energy as
well as fropa, will enhance storm probability and strength, and
thus we are in a slgt risk SVR for this time frame (Sun night-
Monday). Pops for now look to peak in the likely cat.

The 00z GFS has the front making passage by 00Z Tuesday, which
would imply a dry Mon night. But given it`s the first or one of
the first ensemble members to model that, we`ll retain a chance
cat pop (hedging lower than allblends) til this is more
consistently modeled.

Given fropa, the weekend heat should be relieved with fropa
offering a cool back to the 80s/60s by Monday-Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

High confidence in the extended.

The models have come into very good agreement with the extended. The
slower ECMWF 00z Saturday run has once again caught up with the
other models in moving the surface front south of the area by 12z
Tuesday. It has flip flopped a bit causing slight chances in the
southeast early Tuesday morning but with the latest run coming more
in line with the other models have opted to remove pops Tuesday
after sunrise. However could see a low cloud deck through the
morning. After that the dew points plummet from the 70s into the 50s
with much cooler air ushered in on a stiff northerly wind. Thus
upped winds a bit again for this time frame from the extended init
although still not that strong but should see a few gusts. The
northerly flow will develop an easterly component as we head through
the work week but that does not usually affect temperatures one way
or the other in any season. Thus dry and unseasonably cool
conditions throughout the extended.

Temperatures will average a good 10+ degrees below normal by mid
week with some very slow moderation toward the end of the week but
still below normal. Afternoon humidity values will drop well into
the 40 percent range with some 30 percent values possible through
mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

Showers and thunderstorms firing along a warm frontal boundary
affecting the KEVV/KOWB sites should move off to the east early
on. May see MVFR vsbys in TSRA. Other than that, VFR conditions
should prevail through the period. May see VCSH/VCTS at KEVV
between 15-18Z. South southwest winds AOB 10 knots should increase to
around 12-14 knots after 15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...JP
SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...KH






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