Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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571
FXUS63 KPAH 210554
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1254 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Updated the aviation discussion for the 06z TAF issuance

UPDATE Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

After collaboration, it seems the most prudent thing to do with
our heat headlines is run the Advisory thru 00Z Sunday, and let
the daily convection play out insofar as how far east the Heat
Warning will ultimately have to expand and how many days.

Near term convection looks to be mainly heavy rain variety, but do
not expanded Marginal risk as we head thru pm into early evening
hours, for isolated downbursts. Otherwise, rainfall rates at
times exceeding 2 inches per hour, estimated by radar, in highly
souped atmosphere, will likely continue to create urban/small
stream flooding issues thru early evening.

Best heat/humidity still looks to build Thursday and peak Friday,
with some sites by then touching Warning criteria as far east as
Wabash River to Ky Lakes area. We will see how that plays out over
time but for now, have expanded Advisory thru Saturday all areas.
This too may need expanded into Sunday, but another weekend chance
pcpn and lack of collaborative passion to extend beyond means
holding off on that decision for now. The main thing is
heightening awareness to the expanded/prolonged triple digit heat
indices for the remainder of the week/into the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Fairly high confidence in the extended.

High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern at the
start of the extended and persist through the weekend. As typical
with relatively dry/hot regimes the models continue to slow the
termination of the heat wave with time. Monday models put Saturday
in question to satisfy heat advisory conditions. Then pushed into
Sunday yesterday now the relief looks like Monday at the earliest.
Models however are coming into better agreement with early week
timing. However they are starting to appear like it might possibly
be pre frontal trough hang up over or near the TN/AR border with the
main front staying to the northern portions of the forecast area.
Either way if it`s a frontal or pre frontal trough it will
provide some relief albeit modest next week. MOS guidance is
advertising a 3 to 5f degree drop in both temperatures and dew
points Monday into Wednesday. This should keep us considerably out
of advisory or warning criteria. Otherwise impressive low level
instability with abundant moisture will allow for any isolated or
scattered daytime thunderstorms to be strong and very efficient
rain producers. Some of the past storms have produced wind gusts
into the 40 mph range. In addition with very little in the way of
steering winds the storms have been slow movers and in some cases
nearly stationary. I would expect this trend to continue until the
pre frontal trough arrives late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Calm or near calm winds and residual moisture from storms Wednesday
will likely reduce vsbys to MVFR over the next few hours. May
even see brief IFR vsbys. During the day, VFR conditions and light
winds will prevail as area remains under influence of high
pressure. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out but will not
be included explicitly at this time.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ076-086-087-110>112-
     114.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ100-
     107>109.

IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

AVIATION UPDATE...BP2



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