Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 191923
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
123 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 114 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

The ribbon of boundary layer moisture is hanging tough across the
lower Ohio river valley and is stubborn to disperse in entirety.
Satellite trends do suggest it will by days end, however, model
time/heights likewise linger a high rh through the boundary layer
again tonight. Therefore we anticipate another possible night of
low clouds/stratus and/or lower vsbys due to fog. Will include
this in grids and let tonight`s trends dictate any headlining
necessity.

Additional clouds upstream now moving into AR will begin to make
their way into the Quad State Monday, as the upper ridge slides
east. Warm air advection aloft will begin to destabilize the
environment, and with rising dew points, we`ll see a brief window
of MUCapes and elevated instability supportive of thunder
inclusion with our returning pcpn chance, Monday evening-night.

Pops will wind down from west to east Tuesday as the weakening
upper trof makes passage across the area.

Warm temps continue throughout the short term with numbers in or
near the 70s/50s for highs/lows.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

By 12Z Wednesday, a cut off low will be in the Gulf of Mexico and
the main upper trough will be east of our area. Zonal flow will
commence early in the period and eventually become southwesterly as
our next system moves into the Rockies.

An upper level trough is forecast to move into the Rockies on
Thursday and eventually into the north central Plains Thursday
night. A strong surface low will develop in southern/southwest KS by
00Z Friday and move into southern IA/northern MO by 12Z Friday. Warm
air advection will be ongoing late Wednesday night into Thursday and
offer a chance for some showers and a warm front will likely develop
to our north which may briefly enter the area before it lifts
northward Thursday afternoon and evening. As the low level jet
strengthens over the area Thursday night, we could have some warm
sector type showers/storms. The cold front associated with this low
will cross through our region on Friday, bringing chances for
showers and even storms areawide through the day.

Model dew points are showing at least mid to upper 50s to possibly
low 60s ahead of the front on Friday, helping to generate some sfc
based CAPE, although values are low. However, wind fields are
starting to look impressive with a 100+ kt upper jet pushing into
the region on Thursday night into Friday and the 850mb jet
strengthening to 50+ kts. Sfc winds will increase Thursday night
into Friday as a result. Right now, models are not too impressive
with QPF as mid levels are forecast to be pretty dry. This may
change so we will need to watch this system closely.

Aside from possibly some lingering activity in the east during the
early/mid evening, all precipitation should be coming to an end
Friday night. High pressure quickly builds in late Friday night into
Saturday and dry but cooler weather returns for most of the weekend.
We are already watching yet another system possibly impacting us
Sunday night into Monday.

For temperatures, depending on cloud cover Wednesday and into
Thursday, we will likely see low 70s to possibly mid 70s in places
for highs. Cooler readings are likely on Friday with clouds/precip
in place. Much cooler air will infiltrate for the weekend, with
highs only in the upper 40s to lower 50s on Saturday, which is
actually near normal. We might gain a few degrees on Sunday,
remaining in the low-mid 50s. Low temperatures on Saturday night
will back back to around freezing for many locales.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 114 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Finally starting to see breaks in the restricted CIGS/VSBYS from
this morning`s Fog and Low Clouds. However, gridded time/height
cross sections show high rh again in the boundary layer for the
overnight hours, so won`t be shocked if we have a similar repeat
tonight with IFR to MVFR conditions developing. Tmrw will see rain
chances increase, as the overall column moistens up, but not yet
included in the forecast as best chances will be tmrw night.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$


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