Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 190509
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1209 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Updated aviation discussion only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Isolated convection will remain possible into early this evening
due to daytime heating and the weak boundary draped across the PAH
forecast area. The boundary will wash out tonight, keeping the
area dry. Calm winds could again lead to some fog development
across the area.  Models are in decent agreement showing a surface
low moving over the Great lakes region by 00z Wednesday, dragging
a cold front into the middle Mississippi Valley by late Tuesday
afternoon. Models shows most widespread convection and QPF across
the PAH forecast area Tuesday night, then again late Wednesday
night mainly for our northeast/east counties. Went with chance
pops during these time periods, then went with slight to low
chance pops Tuesday and Wednesday. The shift back to southwest to
south winds by Tuesday will lead to increasing temperatures and
dew points Tuesday through Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Ridge begins to build in over the Ohio Valley during this period.
Kept the northeast sections in low pops with northwest flow
situations through Saturday with little elsewhere. Difficult to time
the precip at this time, but the edge of several MCSs could clip the
area. The ridge will bring us close to heat advisory criteria
starting Thursday, mainly for low values but for several days.

The ridge hangs around until the middle of the last week of August.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Despite some high clouds, MVFR/IFR fog is again expected late
tonight at many locations, with vsby drops to LIFR possible
especially at KCGI. In addition, some IFR cigs may form. Isolated
showers and storms are possible toward Tue afternoon, but the
probabilities are still too low to include in TAFs. Light to calm
sfc winds tonight will pick up from the southwest around 5 kts after
13z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...PS
AVIATION...DB








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