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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 121504
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1104 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain showers will continue throughout the day as low
pressure exits to the east and a large upper level wave crosses
the region. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon.
Gusty winds are anticipated through Saturday morning and a Wind
Advisory is in effect. Much cooler air will settle in today and
remain through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Colder with showers continuing today.
- Wind Advisory in effect for the entire area. Gusts >40 mph
  may bring trees down given the highly saturated ground.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

The powerful surface low that brought all the rain to the area
yesterday will continue to move northward over southern Canada,
north of Lake Erie. It will be pushed northward by a 500mb low
that will rotate through the Great Lakes region today. The
trough axis stretching south of the low will push through the
region this afternoon. On and off light rain showers are
expected throughout the day. Rainfall amounts should be
light... generally 0.20-0.30 inches, with less than 0.5 inches
even on the reasonable high end; NBM probs of >0.30 inches are
mainly 30% to 40%. A few rumbles of thunder are possible this
afternoon as well as temperatures aloft continue to tumble and
lapse rates steepen some creating marginal instability.

The other concern for today will be the strong winds. A very
tight surface pressure gradient, working with cold air
advection and strong surface pressure rises, will all work to
result in gusts up to 40 mph throughout the day. Ensemble
probabilities for gusts exceeding 40 mph peak at 70-90% this
afternoon and evening areawide. The strongest gusts are
expected over Eastern Tucker county, however, even though gusts
will be a little less elsewhere, there could still be issues
with falling trees and power lines as the ground is so
saturated from the heavy rain in the past 24 hours. For this
reason, have opted to issue an areawide impact-based Wind
Advisory through 7AM Saturday to cover this threat. The original
Advisory for Eastern Tucker County still remains in effect
until 6PM Saturday.

Colder air will overspread the region throughout the day, with
the coldest reaching the area this afternoon with the trough
axis. Temperatures today will sink back to below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and chilly Saturday.
- Warmer Sunday with the risk for showers.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Upper trough will lift over N New England on Saturday. Area will
remain under NW flow through the morning hours. The coldest air
will move through Saturday morning and then shift to the
northeast with the exiting trough. Once the coldest air aloft
exits the region, clouds will dissipate from southwest to
northeast.

Temperatures Saturday will remain a bit below normal.

A bit of a low confidence forecast on Sunday concerning the
passage of a cold front. Still seeing differing model solutions
on how far south the front will push on Sunday and in turn how
high the threat for rain will be. Models are leaning toward
higher probs Sunday afternoon. There will be a nice push of
warmer air ahead of the front, which will push temperatures back
above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry beginning to the week with warm temperatures.
- Warm through the long term with unsettled weather returning on
  Tuesday.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Front should clear most of the area Monday morning, so except
for a few lingering showers over the southern reaches of the
forecast area, Monday looks to be dry. Somewhat cooler air will
settle in over the region on Monday, but temperatures should
still hold above normal.

The long range outlook likely remains unsettled with additional
trough movement from the intermountain west towards the Great
Lakes. Expect a continuation of above to well above normal
temperature with wave-dependent shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
General low MVFR to IFR ceilings will continue through the day
with shower coverage increasing this afternoon as an upper low
transitions over the area.

A tight pressure gradient will yield strong westerly winds
(exceeding 30-35 kt at times), that will continue through the
TAF period.

.Outlook...
Gusty conditions continue into Sat as low pressure swings
through the region. VFR should return to the region by Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ007>009-013>016-
     020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ039>041-048>050-
     057>059-068-069.
WV...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for WVZ001>004-012-021-
     509>513.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for WVZ514.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22/MLB
NEAR TERM...22/MLB
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22/Frazier
AVIATION...88