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000
FXUS61 KRLX 121733
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
133 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showery and breezy through the day today. Heavy rain from
yesterday continues to yield high water issues today. Quiet for
Saturday into Sunday with storms possible Sunday evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 125 PM Friday...

Shortwave gradually moving across the south is bringing another
slug of rain back into these areas, in addition with ongoing
shower activity as we remain under influence of the upper
trough. Gusty winds across the area today owing to tight
pressure gradient and CAA across the area. Issued wind advisory
earlier for locations expected to receive the higher gusts,
mainly as an impact based advisory due to saturated soils and
weakened trees from previous storms. Otherwise, any qpf from
showers (or isolated storms today) should be relatively light,
and could see periods of graupel with more robust showers or
thunderstorms due to cold air aloft. Precipitation will
transition to mainly light upslope later tonight into early
Saturday across the mountains, before tapering off at the low
moves farther away from the area, high pressure starts to build
in, and flow becomes less favorable.

Saturday should overall be a nice day, with plenty of sunshine,
and temperatures in the 60s across much of the lowlands.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Friday...

Aside from a lingering upslope shower in the mountains Saturday
morning, dry conditions are expected through late Sunday afternoon
allowing some recovery from recent heavy rainfall. Through the day
Sunday a strong, early season elevated mixed layer sourced from the
Desert Southwest will continue to drift slowly east into our
neighborhood with minimal upstream overturning. Beneath this, a
plume of Gulf influenced moisture characterized by surface dew
points in the mid 50s to lower 60s gets shunted eastward as low
level westerly flow increases. This should yield a corridor of
conditional instability approaching 1500J/kg along the best
surface moisture pooling along a weak cold front coincident with
cloud layer shear around 35KTs. This should yield at least some
potential for organized convection with all severe types
possible either across our northern counties or just north of
our county warning area late Sunday afternoon into Sunday
evening. A limiting factor for this convection will be west to
east storm motions that struggle to get storms away from the
aforementioned weak cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM Friday...

Unseasonably mild conditions continue through Thursday with daytime
highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of the year. Gulf
influenced moisture remains in play through much of this period with
periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms. .

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 134 PM Friday...

Widespread MVFR activity continues in low ceilings and
occasional reduced visibilities in showers. Most of this
precipitation will taper off after 03Z, with only a few light
rain and snow showers across the higher terrain. In addition,
will see gradual improvement to VFR overnight, with mountains
slower to improve. Otherwise, gusty westerly/west-southwesterly
winds will continue for much of the period, with occasional
gusts in the 20 to 30 kt range across the lowlands, and the 30
to 40 kt range across the higher terrain.

Lastly, LLWS is possible across much of the area tonight, and
this has been added to the TAFs.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improvement to VFR overnight may
be slower than currently forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are forecast.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for WVZ007>011-013>020-
     026>032-039-040-515>522-524-525.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for WVZ523-526.
OH...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     084-085.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/MEK
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SL