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000
FXUS63 KSGF 171151
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
651 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY CONTINUED TO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PW VALUES WERE STILL IN THE 1.6-1.7 IN. RANGE
SO THESE SLOW MOVING AND BACK BUILDING STORMS WERE ALSO LAYING DOWN
PRETTY GOOD RAINFALL RATES. THERE HAS BEEN A DIMINISHING TREND IN
THIS CONVECTION SINCE AROUND 1 AM...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI NORTH OF OUR CWA
ALONG ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY. ALSO KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THE
LINEAR MCS OVER KANSAS. THIS FEATURE HAS SHOWN MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
PUSH OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION/WIND ASSOCIATED WITH IT PROBABLY HEADING INTO
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. STILL EXPECTING PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN CWA BY AROUND
5 AM. MAIN FOCUS WILL REMAIN WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

BELIEVE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT
SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA BUT WILL CONTINUE HIGH POPS OVER THE WESTERN
CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL SEE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS OF STORMS ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONES OF THE SURFACE
FRONT AND ANY REMAINING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. OVERALL SHEAR DOES NOT
LOOK IMPRESSIVE AND AM THINKING THE CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE LOW. MAIN RISK WILL BE WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND IF THESE
STORMS MOVE OVER AREAS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE POTENTIAL OF FLOODING.

THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY STALL OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS
LATER TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THE RISK OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA INTO TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND MAY SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
AS THIS FRONT MOVES BACK ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH MUCH
WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REACH THE
20-24 DEGREE C RANGE. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TO THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 103.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

FOR THE KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...A DECAYING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER
SE KS AND NE OK WILL SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION SHRA OR TSRA
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
EXPECTED. SOME CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z-20Z
WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AR LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD. PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW CLEARING AFTER18/00Z-03Z...BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH TIMING. IF IT DOES CLEAR OUT...COULD SEE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 18/09Z WITH A LIGHT SFC WIND.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LINDENBERG
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...DSA