Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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095
FXUS63 KSGF 281109
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
609 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Low stratus was in place over the Ozarks this morning as an upper
level ridge moves over the Ozarks. The ridge will bring a dry day
to the area with temperatures rising into the middle 60s for most
of the region with near 70 degrees in extreme southwestern parts
of the area. Despite the ridge over the area, cloud cover will be
stubborn with only a few peeks of sun expected.

The ridge will begin to shift east this evening and overnight as
a strong storms system moves out of the four corners region and
takes a similar track as this past weekends system. Rain and
thunderstorms are expected to begin to spread into the region
late tonight to near midnight and spread from east to west.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The upper low and surface low will move slowly to the east through
the day Wednesday and through Thursday. The dynamics of this
system will bring the potential for strong to severe storms
through the day Wednesday. The combination of ample moisture, a
rather strong low level jet and upper level jet support will make
all modes of severe weather possible. The storm prediction center
has already placed the Ozarks under a slight risk, though if the
models continue the trends of the past few runs, we may see an
upgrade. Will keep an eye on the latest trends.

Models also bring a good amount of precipitation to the region
with the potential for 1-2 inches of rainfall area wide through
the day Wednesday into Thursday afternoon. This, on top of the
rain over the past few days, may produce some flooding concerns.

The system will exit the region to the east Thursday night. The
next upper level ridge will move over the region for Friday and
Saturday bringing a fairly nice end to the week. Temperatures on
friday will be cool in response to the departing low and lingering
scattered cloud cover with temperatures climbing into the 60s for
Saturday.

Another system is then anticipated to begin to impact the region
Saturday night and through Sunday with more rain and temperatures
in the 60s during the day as we head into the start of next week.

The overall pattern as depicted by the models looks rather active for
the coming week storm systems moving across the Ozarks every two
days or so.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Ceilings will be low end MVFR with some IFR possible this morning.
Will mention this IFR potential through 14z this morning. Patchy
fog will also be possible. Most of today will be MVFR ceilings
with a few breaks in the cloud deck possible by this afternoon. A
warm front will move in tonight with convection developing and
moving into the area by the end of the TAF period. Will mention
this potential with a PROB30 group. Winds will be easterly today
then becoming southeasterly and gusty by tonight. Wind gusts could
approach 20 to 25 knots possible tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Griffin



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