Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 240811

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
311 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Early this morning a very weak cold frontal boundary was
positioned along the I70 corridor in central Missouri. This front
will likely weaken even further as it nears our area, however,
some patchy fog may be possible on the backside around or just
before sunrise.

Today will be a tad cooler than yesterday, especially across the
eastern Ozarks as a very slightly cooler air mass filters in from
the north. The bulk of "cooler" air should remain across the mid
Mississippi River and Ohio River Valleys as the Canadian high
drops south and east across the Great Lakes and into the Mid
Atlantic. Although cooler temperatures are forecast, we did go a
degree or two above guidance in the short term because of the
recent cool bias among short term models.

An upper level ridge remains in place across the plains. This
feature will control our weather for much of the short term.
Despite the frontal passage and slight cool down, temperatures
will remain above average. Another mostly sunny day expected.

Overnight, southerly flow will keep temperatures warmer,
especially across southeast Kansas. A decent temperature gradient
is expected with low temperatures dropping off into the middle and
upper 40s across the eastern Ozarks and middle to perhaps as warm
as the upper 50s across southeastern portions of Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

The upper level ridge will remain in control of our weather
through Tuesday evening before our next weather system moves into
the region late Tuesday and early Wednesday.

Another weak frontal boundary and parent short wave will move
southward toward our region Wednesday. This will be the focus for
scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two. Parameters
look rather benign at the moment for a severe weather threat.
Shower/T`storm activity should move eastward by late Wednesday
and early Thursday.

Although the frontal boundary pushes through, not much change is
expected with temperatures. Like this earlier front, the majority
of cooler weather will drop from Canada into the Great Lakes and
eventually the Mid Atlantic.

Another short waves will dive southward from Canada by next
weekend. This feature looks to be located even further east than
the two prior systems. In other words, more above average
temperatures and little rain chances beyond midweek.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

VFR conditions will persist through Monday evening. There is still
a low-end threat for some fog to develop across parts of southern
Missouri as a weak frontal boundary moves in from the north. At
this time, it appears that any fog would remain just north of the
Springfield and Joplin aerodromes. Light and variable winds
tonight will become light out of the east on Monday.




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