Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 212333
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
633 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

...00Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 423 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

The unseasonably cool weather will continue tonight as surface
high pressure settles over the area. Remaining cloud cover will
clear and will monitor fog potential overnight especially across
south central Missouri.

Clouds will once again be on the increase Friday as an initial minor
shortwave trough swings into the Plains.  Developing moisture
advection and isentropic upglide will bring showers from the Plains
into southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri during the day
Friday into Friday night with the best coverage west of Highway 65.
Areas across the eastern Ozarks may remain dry Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 423 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Warm air and moisture advection will strengthen Saturday through the
weekend a broad upper level trough slowly pushes east across the
western U.S.  Scattered to potentially numerous convection will
impact eastern Kansas into western Missouri Saturday on the edge of
a deep moisture plume with less coverage farther east during the day
Saturday.

The coverage and intensity of rainfall will gradually increase from
the west Saturday night through Monday as the western trough slowly
lifts to the east and northeast. Rainfall efficiency will increase
as the deep moisture plume shifts eastward. Rainfall totals could become
heavy late in the weekend particularly across southeastern Kansas
into southwestern Missouri where storm rainfall could approach 3
inches. The potential for flooding will have to be closely monitored
and Flash Flood Watches may be issued with later forecast.

The potential for severe weather remains conditional with the amount
of instability in question.  There could be more robust updrafts
Sunday afternoon and evening if sufficient surface heating takes
place.

Models continue to depict an unsettled weather pattern next week
with periodic chances for showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions are expected overnight at the TAF sites as high
pressure settle overhead. Fog potential is low at SGF and JLN but
confidence is lower at BBG. Ceilings will begin to lower by midday
tomorrow and rain chances will then increase for JLN tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Burchfield








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