Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 251725
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1125 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Quiet weather is expected today and most of tonight. A sfc ridge
axis of high pressure will move across the region today. Went
fairly close to bias corrected MOS guidance which in general is will
slightly cooler than yesterday for high temperatures.

A return flow/south wind will set up with the ridge exiting off
to the east tonight. An approaching clipper low with a trailing sfc
front will move across the Dakotas into western IA/eastern KS/nw
MO by the end of this period (12z). Nighttime temperatures may drop off
quickly early tonight but will steady off or possibly rise a bit
late tonight with a south wind and increasing clouds. For the most
part, expect most (if not all) accumulating snow with the
approaching sfc low/front to remain off to the north through tonight,
but some may minor amounts/dusting sneak into the far northern
cwfa toward 12z.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Overview: A gradual deamplification of the upper level pattern is
expected late in the week in the wake of the minor clipper
shortwave. In general expect temperatures to swing from colder
than normal to warmer than normal by Friday/Saturday. A split flow
pattern develops late in this period keeping the very cold air
over Canada bottled up to our north, but the southern edge of the
Canadian air mass is expected to reach the cwfa late Sunday into
Monday.

Wednesday: The clipper low and trailing sfc trough/front will
move quickly through MO on Wednesday. Used a blend of three hour MOS
temperatures with the coldest readings early in the day over the
northeast cwfa. Some very light snow accumulation will be possible
early in the day over parts of central and south central MO.
Impacts? Should be minor but some slick spots could briefly
develop over the northeast cwfa in the morning before temperatures
warm. Temperatures look to be a bit too warm farther to the
southwest toward KSGF to support any accumulation, but will watch
trends. The precip exits to the east quickly in the afternoon as
temperatures warm up well up into the 30s and 40s.

Thursday/Thanksgiving Holiday: Quiet with a Canadian ridge of
sfc high pressure moving through the area. It will be chilly, but
winds will be light.

Friday/Saturday: Warmer and breezy as south winds develop with
high pressure shifting to the south and east and low pressure
moving into the High Plains/lee of the Rockies. Some western areas
might touch 60 degrees for highs as early as Friday. With more of
a sw-ssw sfc wind expected Saturday, most areas will get into at
least the low 60s.

Sunday/Monday: The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement with
the southern fringes of a Canadian air mass trying to make a push
back to the south. By this time a distinct split in the mid level
flow is progged, with much colder air bottled up well to the
north. A frontal passage with a chance of (mostly) rain is
expected Sunday/Sunday night/early Monday, but the front isn`t
expected to make it too far to the south before a strong Canadian
high pressure centered to our north begins to retreat off to the
east late Monday. It looks to be colder Monday, but not overly so.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A weak disturbance will track
across northern Missouri tonight into Wednesday morning. Some
light precipitation will occur with this system but at this time
this precipitation is expected to remain to the north and east of
the TAF sites.

Ahead of this disturbance sunny skies will occur this afternoon
then mid level clouds will increase overnight as it approaches the
region. Winds will be out of the west early this afternoon before
becoming southwesterly later this afternoon into this evening.
Westerly winds will then return Wednesday morning and will
increase and become gusty.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Wise






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