National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KSGF 150458
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1158 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

CLEAR SKIES AND WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ARE MAKING FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY
ACROSS THE OZARKS AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT
WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S TODAY...WITH A FEW AREAS GETTING NEAR 90
DEGREES. MUCH OF THIS HEAT IS BEING PUMPED INTO THE REGION BY A
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...RETURNING AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE...WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT AROUND 3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...WIND SHEAR NEEDED FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NEARLY NONEXISTENT. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MISSOURI OZARKS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING HOURS BUT TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP ON
THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN AREAS AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE
SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE OZARKS.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER THE REGION.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK BUT NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BE REMAIN WARM INTO THE WEEKEND.

A MUCH STRONGER AND ORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE OUT INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A ROUND OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. MODELS SUGGEST CAPE VALUE
APPROACHING 3500 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR AROUND 45 KNOTS AND A
WEAKENING CAP SUNDAY EVENING ALONG WITH DECENT HEIGHT FALLS. THIS
MAY BRING A ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE CONVECTION SUNDAY
EVENING. SPC HAS THE OUR WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AREAS IN A DAY 6 OUTLOOK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT FOR ACTIVE WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR POSSIBLY STALL OUT NEAR THE
MISSOURI OZARKS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BE A FOCUS AREA FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR MIDDLE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND WILL
AGAIN BECOME BRISK AND GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WE HAVE MAINTAINED A PROB30
GROUP FOR THUNDER AND MVFR TO COVER THIS. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

BELOW ARE THE RECORD HIGHS FOR A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE OZARKS
FOR TODAY...MAY 14TH.

LOCATION       RECORD HIGH

SPRINGFIELD    88 IN 1947
JOPLIN         92 IN 1947
WEST PLAINS    87 IN 1988
VICHY/ROLLA    89 IN 1899

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KARDELL
LONG TERM...GRIFFIN
AVIATION...SCHAUMANN
CLIMATE...HATCH