000
FXUS63 KSGF 172323
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
623 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. THIS RAINFALL AND
THE CLOUD COVER HAS REALLY LIMITED HEATING AND INSTABILITY ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. AS A RESULT
JUST LIGHT SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING. ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS BETTER
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE NORTH...SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED...JUST CLIPPING SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

THE BETTER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA WILL OCCUR ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND THE EASTERN OZARKS WHERE THE BETTER
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...WITH PENNY SIZE HAIL AND
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH THE MAIN RISK...BUT THIS WILL BE
ISOLATED AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A BOUNDARY LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS EAST THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING HOURS ALONG
THESE FEATURES...BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LOW AND WITHOUT
THE AID OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON THE
WEAK SIDE. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT WITH
SATURATED GROUNDS DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED OVER THE
WEEKEND...SOME LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SUBSIDENCE WILL BUILD IN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING BEHIND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WILL BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND THEN WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...IN THE LOWE TO MIDDLE 80S THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH
A WARM AIRMASS SPREADING INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE
90S EACH AFTERNOON AS HUMIDITY WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH. THERE MAY BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR PULSE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS THIS WEEKEND AS INSTABILITY INCREASE AND SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE. WITH THE RIDGE OVER HEAD THERE
WILL BE NO FORCING MECHANISMS OR SHEAR FOR THESE STORMS TO WORK
WITH...SO THEY WILL BE PULSE IN NATURE AND ISOLATED AND SHORT
LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

MCV MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE
CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AERODROMES...SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS GIVING OCCASIONAL MFVR CEILINGS AT KSGF. BELIEVE
THAT WITH SUBSIDENCE APPROACHING...THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z.

WITH ALL THE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...NEXT CONCERN IS FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOW MUCH FOG WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON
HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP TREND GOING OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT ALL AIRPORTS AND WILL INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS AT KBBG.
IF SKIES CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY...MAY HAVE TO GO TO IFR.

CONDITIONS THEN MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...GAEDE