Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 281715
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1215 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015
...18z Aviation Forecast Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
It was a comfortable and quiet night over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures cooled into the 50s and 60s,
under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds.
Showers and thunderstorms were observed over central Kansas as an
upper level disturbance was passing over this area.
This feature will approach the Ozarks today, helping to trigger
some rain over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. We think
most locations across the Ozarks will remain dry, since this
activity will have a tendency to dissipate further east. Therefore
locations east of Highway 65 will have good chances for dry
weather through this afternoon.
Highs today are expected to warm into the low to mid 80s in all
As we progress into tonight, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to increase, as a secondary speed max approaches from
the northwest. The better chances for rain will once again occur
over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Tonight`s lows will
fall into the 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
For Saturday, we are looking at the possibility of isolated
showers and thunderstorms, although most locations can plan for a
We start to see an unusual pattern take shape as the primary belt
of westerlies moves well into southern Canada and the Hudson Bay.
Meanwhile, the upper trough currently over the southeast United
States will retro-grade west into the Ozarks, creating isolated to
scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms.
The axis of this trough will be positioned over the Ozarks both
Sunday and Monday. Therefore, will need to carry at least
scattered chances for rain both of these days.
By Tuesday, it`s a little more uncertain on where this weakness
will be positioned. Will carry lower precip chances for the
middle and end of next week.
One item we do know, temperatures and heat indices will be on the
rise next week. Readings well into the middle and upper 80s are
expected on an afternoon basis. We can also expect increased
humidity, causing heat indices to rise into the low to middle 90s.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015
Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours for
pilots flying in and out of the Missouri Ozarks region. Mid and
high cloudiness will continue through tomorrow morning. A weak
front will try to develop a scattered thunderstorms between 06z to
14z tonight and tomorrow morning. Have mentioned PROB30 groups for
this potential at area TAF sites with a brief drop in visibilities
to MVFR under heavier showers. Otherwise southerly winds will be
a little breezy this afternoon up to 12kts and light breeze
continuing through tomorrow morning.