Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 191031
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
531 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...12Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Clear skies this morning will combine with moist ground across
southern Missouri to bring another round of morning fog to
portions of the Ozarks. This will be especially apparent in stream
and river valleys.

A flattening upper level ridge will bring a pleasant day to the
region with sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures.
Afternoon temperatures in the middle 70s to lower 80s are expected
with southerly winds.

The upper ridge will flatten and shift east of the area tonight as
an upper level trough moves across the Northern Plains. Southerly
winds will continue to bring warm air into the Ozarks with
overnight lows only falling into the middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

The upper level trough and associated surface low will track
across the Great Lakes region during the day on Saturday. A
weakening cold front will also approach the Ozarks from the
northwest as this occurs. Models are in good agreement bringing
the front into the area Saturday evening and overnight into
Sunday morning. Current indications are for showers and
thunderstorms to develop along the front but no severe storms are
anticipated, though an isolated strong storm could occur.

The front will be through the region early Sunday. Behind the
front is a broad cool Canadian surface high that will settle over
the area for the first half of next week. This will bring highs in
the middle 70s and overnight lows in the lower to middle 50s
through Wednesday.

An upper level wave looks to move across the central plains late
next week, though models keep rain any rain west of the Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 528 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

IFR cigs and vis will impact the BBG terminal through 14Z or so
before cigs scatter out and vis improves. For SGF and JLN, cigs and
vis may flirt with MVFR at times, but VFR should generally
prevail. Any restrictions should lift for all terminals by mid
morning, with VFR expected thereafter. Winds will remain from the
south to southeast, with speeds generally at or below 10 KTS.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-080>083-091-092-096>098.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Boxell





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