Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 271723
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1123 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 302 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Low clouds have hung on over all but the far western cwfa so far
tonight. We have started to see some erosion of the western
edge, and based on 925/850mb humidity progs, the clearing line
will continue to shift east as low level winds begin to back to
the west and southwest and warm advection (albeit weak initially)
kicks in in the lower levels. The clouds may, however, hang on for
a bit over the eastern cwfa today.

Sfc high pressure will keep winds light today. A s-se sfc wind
will eventually start to kick in as the high exits off to the east
tonight. Temperatures might drop quickly this evening then level
off with the increasing sfc wind.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Gusty s-sw winds will kick in Friday with a sharp warming trend.
Progged soundings show a shallow moist layer underneath a capping
inversion/elevated mixed layer Friday night and into the weekend.
We might see some shallow advection stratus/fog develop late Fri
night into early Saturday. Given the shallow depth, it look like
the moisture will mix out, even with low seasonal sun angles, but
this bears watching since it may affect daytime temperatures.

For Friday-Saturday, went with a general consensus of guidance on
temperatures with most if not all areas reaching the 60s over the
weekend.

A split mid level flow pattern will gradually develop over the
western and central CONUS with a northern stream shortwave
supporting a cold frontal passage with some light rain late Sunday
night with cooler/colder temperatures Monday-Tuesday. Quite a
difference between the ECMWF and GFS by Tuesday/Wednesday with
just basic placement of large scale features. In general, both
models don`t show any real cold air surging south, but they vary
on the timing and degree of warm air advection by mid/late week.
Again, the forecast represents a blend which in affect warms
temperatures a bit by day 6 and 7 (Tuesday/Wednesday) but with low
confidence.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Pilots can expect improving flight conditions at area terminals this
afternoon with VFR conditions prevailing through tonight.

Surface winds will be light today as surface high pressure moves
off to the east. Southerly winds will develop tonight and increase
on Friday. Frequent surface gusts over 20 kts can be expected
Friday. Low level wind shear will develop tonight into early
Friday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Foster






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