Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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472
FXUS63 KSGF 242033
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
324 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The main concern will be strong/severe thunderstorm potential and
rainfall.

A band of warm air/moisture advection is occurring over the area
ahead of a strong vertically stacked low over the TX Panhandle.
Showers/isolated thunderstorms have been occurring over the
western cwfa since mid/late morning which has stabilized the
atmosphere. Farther east, temperatures have warmed into 70s over
the eastern cwfa. In the near term this afternoon, basically what
you see is what you get. The north-south band of showers coupled
with storm movement parallel to this band has kept the convection
benign for the most part.

Going into the evening there are two areas of concern.

1. Eastern cwfa east of the current shower activity. We will see a
gradual increase in synoptic scale lift as the upper low moves
east through OK. Convection allowing models (cams) increase/fill
in the convection as it begins to move east late this afternoon
and this evening. Instability/cape is modest, mlcape as high as
500-700 j/kg along the MO/AR south of KUNO/West Plains this
evening. Given favorable shear and low level helicity profiles,
storms may finally develop into a line with some embedded
supercells. This would be primarily from 02z/9 pm to 06z/1 am
before the storms shift east. The main overall storm risk would be
damaging winds as the storms develop into a line.

2. Eastern cwfa over southeast KS and far western MO. As the low
shifts east, most model guidance develops moderate instability as
colder air aloft moves into the region. High res models show about
1000-1200 j/kg uncapped mlcape into our far western counties this
evening. CAMS have been persistent in developing convection in
low level convergence northeast of the low center late this
afternoon/this evening, and then eventually near the sfc low and
cold front as they move into northeast OK/far se KS/far sw MO late
this evening and overnight. Better instability is expected this
evening before weakening after midnight. Steeper midlevel lapse
rates would favor hail production. Winds will also be a threat
for storms that can stay rooted in the boundary layer. The best
chances for severe storms would be this evening.

Finally for Saturday, the upper low moves across southern MO with
continued chances for showers/scattered thunder. With the cold
core aloft, some brief hail threat may linger.

Rainfall is needed over the area, so hopefully this will be good
news. General forecast amounts range from around a half inch over
southeast KS to just over an inch over parts of the Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

An active low latitude storm track will keep rain in the forecast
at times, primarily focused Sunday night into Monday and then
again Wednesday into Thursday. There is fairly good agreement on
these systems with no major changes to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Showers/tstms are expected to increase in
coverage over the next few hours as a strong storm system moves
east through the Plains. Generally VFR conditions with MVFR/ocnl
IFR visibility in showers will continue in the near term, but
expect more predominate MVFR/IFR conditions with a line/band of
showers/tstms that will move west-east through the area 21z-03z.
Scattered showers will continue to be possible for the remainder
of the taf period as a cold core upper level low moves into the
area.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...DSA



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