Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 232042
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
342 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

...Heavy Rain & Potential Flooding Developing Tonight through
Sunday Night...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Widespread rain and convection over the Plains will spread
eastward and impact far eastern Kansas and far western Missouri
this evening into the overnight hours. Expect activity to train
from south to north within deep moisture plume ahead of an upper
low in the Great Basin. A steady low level jet will transport a
moisture rich airmass northward and aid and low level convergence
across the eastern Plains tonight.

This deep moisture plume and low level jet will shift gradually
eastward on Sunday as the upper low out west begins to lift
northeast and an accompanying shortwave rotates northward into the
region. With precipitable water values around 1.75 and 850 MB
dew points around 12 degrees Celsius rainfall rates will be
efficient with total amounts accentuated where training persists.

The greatest potential for excessive rainfall and resultant
flooding will extend from southeastern Kansas to the I-49 corridor
of far western Missouri tonight. This potential will spread east
particularly by Sunday night. The Flash Flood Watch may need to be
expanded farther east with later forecast.

Total rainfall amounts through Sunday night are expected to range
from 1.5 to 2.5 inches at most locations with some areas
particularly across southeastern Kansas into southwestern Missouri
approaching or exceeding 3 inches.

The potential for severe weather on Sunday remains conditional and
marginal at best with the extent of cloud cover and precipitation
inhibiting destabilization of the lower atmosphere.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Expect rain to taper off during the day Monday as the shortwave
lifts to the northeast. However rainfall will increase again
Monday night as yet another shortwave trough tracks northeast into
the region. Will again have to monitor for the potential of heavy
rainfall.

Otherwise the unsettled weather will persist next week with
intermittent chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

At the beginning of the period, most terminals were dry with a few
scattered showers around the area. There were a few lightning
strikes over the past hour or so out across southeast Kansas with
additional development ahead of the next mid-level disturbance due
into our area tonight. More widespread showers and thunderstorms
are likely with this feature as it translates east and northeast
tonight and Sunday.

Kept MVFR cigs throughout much of the overnight and Sunday. BBG
may have a window of IFR conditions Sunday morning. There is a
signal for LLWS, however, it looks to be just below thresholds at
this time.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Frye






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