Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
000
FXUS63 KSGF 140542
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1242 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms
late this afternoon into this evening, mainly across central
Missouri. Hail up to the size of golf balls and damaging wind
gusts up to 60 mph are possible.
- Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5) for severe storms Thursday
afternoon into early Thursday night. Hail up to the size of
baseballs and damaging wind gusts up to 60-70 mph are
possible. There is also a low chance for a tornado or two. The
greatest threat is along and south of I-44.
&&
.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
00z KSGF sounding data is in and shows 1100j/kg of ML CAPE
however there remains 72j/kg of ML inhibition which is keeping a
lid on thunderstorm development. This elevated mixed layer is
centered around 780mb with steep mid level lapse rates above.
Low pressure was located across central Kansas with a warm front
extending east along I-70 into Missouri. A dryline was located
across central Oklahoma and will likely begin retreating west
within the next couple hours. Large scale lift has not been
present and we have not seen many successful thunderstorm
attempts thus far. Stronger lift remains further west across
Kansas and Oklahoma.
Stronger lift should continue to spread east and encompass most
of the warm front area through the overnight hours however for
our local area our window is closing for any thunderstorms.
Latest short term model data suggests that the higher chances
for development will occur just north of the area from Kansas
City east along I-70. We will continue to monitor for any
development however thinking most areas will remain dry.
Otherwise we will need to see if any cold pools can develop with
overnight storms across eastern Kansas as they could track
along areas along and north of Highway 54 after 3am however
confidence is low regarding the severe threat by this time given
decreasing instability.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Attention in the short term is with severe weather potential
this afternoon/evening and again Thursday afternoon into early
Thursday night.
A warm front is across central Missouri where moisture is
increasing. Some convection has started to initiate in this
area in an environment with around 2,000 J/kg of SBCAPE and
30-40 kts of effective shear. Over the next few hours, an
increase to around 3,000 J/kg of SBCAPE and 35-45 kts of shear
is expected. Wind profiles are supportive of supercells, which
supports large hail to the size of golf balls and 60 mph winds.
Depending on exactly where storms develop, they may not be over
the area very long as steady movement to the northeast is
expected.
Plenty of convection is expected north of I-70 this evening and
tonight, which may result in outflow pushing south into the area
overnight into early Thursday morning. Lots of uncertainty with
this, but even if convection impacts the forecast area, storms
should be below severe limited.
For Thursday, a cold front will move NW to SE through the area
in the evening to early overnight hours Thursday night. Ahead of
the front, models shows the cap weakening and convection
initiating around the early afternoon time frame and persisting
into the early evening hours (perhaps 6 PM or so). Primary area
of concern for this is along/S of I-44. SBCAPE of 2,500-3,500
J/kg and strong deep layer shear of 40-50 kts will support
severe storms. Splitting supercells are expected given a nearly
unidirectional shear profile, which will enhance the already
substantial hail threat in left moving cells. As a result, we
increased the hail size to baseballs in our messaging. Damaging
wind gusts of 60-70 mph are possible. Low level wind fields are
not supportive of a substantial tornado threat, but a tornado or
two will be possible where ideal boundary interaction occurs.
Additional storms are expected to form along the cold front over
the western portions of the area Thursday evening. 60 mph winds
are the primary concern with these storms as they move southeast
through the area. Severe concerns should wrap up around midnight
Thursday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
With attention on the short term and no actionable targets of
opportunity, no changes were made to the NBM initialization in
the long term. We could see some elevated fire weather concerns
this weekend into early next
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
For the 06z TAFS, newly forming convection just east of Wichita
should stay north of the TAF sites as it shifts northeast into
southeast Kansas and west central Missouri overnight. Convection
initiation on Thursday is expected in the early to mid afternoon
hours and will continue through the evening hours. Gusty
southerly winds of 15 to 25 kts will be possible through the
day, with the front shifting the winds to the northwest during
the evening. Some strong to severe convection will be possible
and any severe convection could produce variable wind gusts up
to 60 mph with large hail also possible. We are expecting some
stratus to develop towards morning in the MVFR category. Within
the convection some MVFR to IFR conditions are expected.
Clearing will take place late in the TAF period.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Burchfield
SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Lindenberg