Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 220757
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
257 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Another dry and hot day is expected today across the region, as an
upper level ridge remains centered across the lower Mississippi
River Valley.  With 850 and 925 MB temperatures expected to be
within a degree or so of yesterday`s readings, expectations are for
equally similar highs this afternoon.  Upper 90s will be the norm,
with a few spots flirting with 100 degrees.  With dry air not far
off the surface, and dry surface conditions across the area,
dewpoints will again mix down into the low to mid 60s during peak
heating this afternoon, with the most mixing occurring along the
higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau.  Heat indices will be between
100 and 105 area wide.

It will essentially be "wash, rinse, repeat" tomorrow and Sunday,
with very little changing in the way of afternoon highs.  On
Saturday we do warm just a degree or two aloft, and have followed
with surface temperatures around 100 degrees along and north of
I-44.  Saturday also brings a little more dry air aloft, which
should result in dewpoints dropping a few more degrees during the
afternoon hours. As has been the case for the last few days, the
most significant drop in afternoon dewpoints will be along the
spine of the Plateau.

Even with afternoon dewpoints staying fairly low during the
afternoon hours, northern portions of the CWA will be going on their
3rd or 4th consecutive day of heat indices in the low 100s today
(and will certainly hit 4 consecutive days tomorrow), necessitating
a Heat Advisory.  An Advisory will be in effect from noon today
through Sunday afternoon for areas along and north of a Pittsburg,
KS to Lake of the Ozarks line.  A future expansion to the south may
be needed in coming days.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

The beginning to middle of next workweek, the upper ridge may
flatten just a bit, resulting in temperatures dropping a few
degrees.  Some extended guidance, the GFS in particular, is
insisting on bringing a cold front through the region next Wednesday
or Thursday.  While certainly possible, it seems prudent to be a
little skeptical given the strength and persistence of the upper
level ridge currently in place.  Should that front come to fruition,
it would bring the next chance of rainfall, along with cooler
temperatures to the region.  Confidence in this portion of the
forecast is quite low at this juncture.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Summertime high pressure was dominating the Ozarks Region keeping
skies mostly clear and temperatures hot.

Pilots need to be aware that low level wind shear is expected the
rest of tonight. 40 knots of southwest flow at around 2000 feet is
forecasted, due to a low level jet strengthening.

No obstructions to visibilities or ceilings are forecasted at this
time.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT Sunday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>069-077-078.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT Sunday FOR KSZ073-097.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Cramer





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