Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 301808
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
108 PM CDT Sat May 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

A potent shortwave is lifting north across Arkansas this morning,
with a large area of moderate rain continuing ahead of this feature
across south central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.  While the
heavier thunderstorms have dissipated, rainfall rates of 0.15 to
0.25 inches per hour will continue through the morning across this
area, resulting in a continued flood risk.  Will continue the Flash
Flood Watch for areas east of a Branson to Lebanon to Vichy line
through early afternoon today.

A cold front slowly moving across the Plains this morning will
eventually accelerate as the aforementioned shortwave lifts
northeast, with rainfall dissipating as that front passes.  Despite
the end to the rain, low stratus/fog/drizzle will likely continue
through the night tonight across the area.  The combination of
cooler air and continued cloud cover will result in rather chilly
highs today for the western 2/3 of the forecast area, with highs in
the 60s.  The eastern Ozarks look to make it into the low 70s before
the front passes through.

As mentioned above, fog and low stratus will continue tonight over
much of the area.  Will need to closely watch the potential for
areas of dense fog, especially where stratus is able to build down
toward the higher terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

Cool temperatures will continue on Sunday, as low cloud cover
struggles to clear out.  We should start to see some clearing from
the north by afternoon, though progress will likely be rather slow.

Monday finally looks to feature a return to more pleasant
conditions, with partly to mostly sunny skies and temperatures in
the 70s. A slow but steady warming trend will then commence for the
remainder of the workweek, with temperatures warming a couple
degrees each day, eventually reaching the mid 80s by the end of the
week.  Humidity will also be on the increase through the week,
though with an upper ridge building across the region, it appears
that most, if not all, of the week will be dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Sfc low pressure over se MO will
continue to pull away from the area as high pressure weakly builds
south into the region. MVFR ceilings are common over the area to
start the taf period. SREF guidance develops and lowers stratus
after daylight hours 02z-03z with stratus build down into the lifr
category possible.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 PM CDT this afternoon FOR MOZ058-070-
     071-081>083-091-092-096>098-104>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA







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