Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 281121

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
621 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Convection has shifted east of Missouri early this morning as
drier air as pushed in from the west-southwest over the past 12
hours. Main upper low was still sitting over the northern Plains
into the upper MS valley with the next closed low out in the
southern Rockies.

Forecast focus will be with thunderstorm chances beginning Friday
and continuing into the weekend as this low in the southwest
slowly pushes eastward.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

For today/tonight...Will see considerable height rises with upper
level ridging building into the area in advance of the southwest
upper low. There should be plenty of sunshine today, with a cooler
airmass, especially in the northern CWA. Highs will range from
around 70 in the north to the upper 70s in the southeast.

High pressure will continue to build in at the surface tonight
with a return flow beginning to set up around 850 mb. Good
southwest flow aloft will set up ahead of the next low which
should be lifting into the central Rockies. Expecting the
precipitation to remain to our west/southwest until Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Could see showers/thunderstorms start to spread into the area on
Friday, especially over southern and western portion of the CWA.
Low level moisture will continue to advance into the area during
the day with pieces of upper level energy breaking off and moving
into the area. As the upper low shifts into the Plains on Friday
night, good diffluent flow sets up over the area with low level
jet impinging on the area as well. Instability never really gets
overly impressive to where severe weather would be expected, but
certainly wouldn`t rule out some stronger storms Friday night into
Saturday. Jet streak should push through on Satuday and low will
gradually open up and shift east Saturday night into Sunday. Will
continue lower end chances of thunderstorms for the later half of
the weekend, but best chances by far look to be Friday night into
Saturday. Overall from Friday through Sunday night we are going
with around an inch to inch and a half of rain, with the higher
amounts over the southern CWA.

Chances of rain for the remainder of the period look to be on the
low side to none, with weaker flow aloft and drier air over the


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

VFR conditions to prevail at all TAF sites with the only
noteworthy condition being a gradual shift of surface winds to
the east-northeast during the period.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Runnels is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.