Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 041754 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1254 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

Issued at 1254 PM CDT SUN OCT 04 2015

Stratus has hit a brick wall just west of the Highway 65 corridor.
Some scattering of the western edge is expected this afternoon,
but this deck should begin to move westward once again after
sunset. As expected, temperatures have been thwarted a bit by this
cloud cover and additional tweaks to the forecast will be


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0221 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2015

Another day of below normal temperatures will be noted across the
region due to the continued influence of the cyclonic flow around
the very slow moving southeast US upper low. Satellite early this
morning depicting stratus poised to enter the eastern CWA before
dawn and advect westward toward Highway 65 this morning and have
adjusted highs to fit this expectation.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 0221 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2015

Medium range model output continue to keep southwest US as a
closed system which will slow its eastward progression long enough
for a shortwave in the northern stream to become the more major
player in the midweek time frame.

Before then...low level flow to shift to the south as the
southeast upper flow departs into the Atlantic Tuesday. This will
warm temperatures above seasonable normals before a cold front
associated with the aforementioned northern stream wave generates
at least scattered showers and the potential for weak
thunderstorms region wide Thursday lasting into Friday over south
central MO.

00Z Models continue to produce diverse solutions with the upper
low in the longer range. Expectation is for lift associated with
the system to remain over the Southern Plains...likely keeping
rain out of the picture for the SGF CWA next weekend. This will
need to be monitored however.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT SUN OCT 04 2015

MVFR stratus deck is the main forecast concern over the next 24
hours. This deck has stalled its westward progress, with low end
MVFR at SGF and high end MVFR at BBG. Some modest lifting/
scattering is expected this afternoon, however after sunset this
deck should once again increase and spread to the west. As a
result, MVFR conditions are forecast at SGF/BBG for the entire
forecast, with MVFR moving into JLN late this evening. Winds will
remain out of the northeast.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Gagan is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.