126
FXUS66 KSGX 122031
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
131 PM PDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Night and morning low clouds and fog expected for areas west of the
mountains this week. A few degrees of cooling expected each day
Monday through Wednesday. A few light showers may form over the
mountains Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. There is some
uncertainty in the forecast for the end of the week, but seasonally
warm weather looks likely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Low clouds have cleared nicely from much of San Diego County as of 1
PM, with low clouds sticking at Orange County beaches. Low clouds
will fill back in overnight, with the potential to reach into the
Inland Empire again. Areas of cumulus clouds have developed over the
mountains this afternoon and clear skies are prevailing in the
deserts. Temperatures at 1 PM were running a few degrees cooler than
1 PM yesterday in the Inland Empire and Orange County and a few
degrees warmer elsewhere. A few locations around the Coachella
Valley and San Diego deserts have already hit 100 degrees.

The ridge that is currently over California will shift east Monday
as a weak upper level low approaches Southern California. This will
result in slightly cooler conditions west of the mountains, but not
much change in high temperatures for the deserts. The low slowly
drifts into northern Baja through Wednesday, spreading slightly
cooler conditions further inland to the deserts. The marine layer is
also expected to deepen due to influences from the trough Wednesday.
There is a small amount of mid-level moisture associated with this
low, allowing for more cumulus clouds to develop over the mountain
crests in the afternoon and perhaps an isolated shower or two over
the highest peaks Tuesday and especially Wednesday.

There is still some model uncertainty with how quickly the low moves
east, with about 60 percent of ensemble solutions keeping the low
over Southern California into Thursday. A ridge of high pressure
begins to develop over the Eastern Pacific midweek, and will allow
for some height rises and warming for inland locations as it tries
to push the low east. There is fairly good agreement that the low
will keep trekking east Friday allowing for further warming. This is
short lived, however, as another closed low is forecast to develop
off the So Cal coast, moving inland sometime next weekend. Still a
lot of ensemble spread in the exact placement of these lows in the
extended, so confidence in forecast temperatures remains on the
lower side. Current forecast for the end of the week and next
weekend closely follows the NBM.

&&

.AVIATION...
122000Z...Coast/Valleys...SCT-BKN low clouds near 1400-1800 ft MSL
will stick around the immediate Orange County coast this afternoon.
Low clouds expected to move back inland after 00Z Mon with similar
bases and tops, though some areas may see cigs locally near 600 ft
MSL. Confidence high on low clouds for lower elevations of SD/OC,
moderate across the Inland Empire with possible cigs after 08Z for
VCTY KONT. Clouds clearing once again to the coast 15-18Z with areas
of BKN cigs into Monday afternoon near the beaches.

Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear with unrestricted VIS through
tonight. SCT/BKN clouds over the mountains with bases around 9000 ft
MSL through this evening. W winds increasing after 00Z Mon with
surface gusts 20-35 kts, diminishing by 12Z Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Thursday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE...APR