781
FXUS64 KSHV 030656
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
156 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Difficult forecast leads to a low confidence one in the short-
term as shortwaves embedded in dirty southwest flow aloft and a
myriad of convective outflow boundaries are resulting in havoc in
not only the operational deterministic progs but in the HighRes
CAMS as well. Best resort is to go with progs that have
initialized well to current activity which rules out most of the
deterministic progs and/or nearly half the CAMS.

The setup as described above is continued southwest flow aloft as
the longwave trough remains across southern Canada into the
Intermountain West with strong ridging off the Atlantic Seaboard.
This persistent ridging is making for a rather stagnant upper
pattern across the Southern Plains. The development of a nocturnal,
low level jet is helping to sustain convection across E OK
currently with that complex forecast to continue moving south and
east into our northern zones this morning, weakening as it does.
Outflow associated with this disturbance will likely serve as a
focus for renewed convection later today with plenty of diurnal
instability to work with. The HRRR which was followed closely for
this short-term forecast is picking up on an embedded disturbance
moving out of Central Texas later today with convection becoming
numerous mainly near but especially south of the I-20 Corridor of
NE TX and N LA so have therefore oriented pops highest across this
area through the daytime hours, limiting chance pops to our
northwest third overnight in the proximity of yet another weak
disturbance moving towards the I-30 Corridor overnight.

Saturday is another difficult call as our northern zones will likely
be dealing with remnant MCS convection with at least scattered
convection near and south of the I-20 Corridor once again tied
mostly to diurnal heating. The good news is that widespread severe
convection does not appear favorable today through Saturday but
damaging wind gusts an an isolated large hail producing
thunderstorm certainly cannot be ruled out given the relatively
steep mid-level lapse rates in place not to mention the
convective outflow potential. PWATS will remain highest across our
western half as well and relatively slow moving convection will
of course pose a flooding theat as well but again, this should not
be widespread through the short-term.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

By Saturday Night, all eyes will be on a much stronger shortwave
exiting the Tx Hill Country and moving into the Upper/Middle Red
River Valley of N TX/S OK. Scattered convection entering our far
northwest zones late Sat Night should become numerous across most
areas during the day Sunday and once again, these could pose an
isolated severe and/or flash flood threat during the day.

The East Coast ridge axis looks like it may finally pull up anchor
and head offshore to begin the upcoming work week. A vigorous
upper trough that enters to Pacific Northwest on Saturday moves
into the Intermountain West on Sunday and opens up into the
Southern and Central Plains for Monday. Enough upper forcing
should be present across or northern half for scattered convection
on Monday before we lose the upper level support for Tue into
Wed. Followed the NBM pop wise Wed thru Thu but WSW flow aloft
appears to continue and this results in a low confidence forecast
once again as the NBM is not spitting out much in the way of pops
Wed thru Thu and we all know what this flow can bring. NBM is
continuing it`s warming trend next week in the form of near 90 to
the lower 90s Wed into Thu and if the drying trend is correct,
this would put afternoon heat indices well into the 90s and even
approaching 100 degrees in some locations. Summer appears to be
starting way to early.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Plenty of disagreement to work with tonight as 00z CAMs have
struggled to promote a collective convective decision across the
airspace through the morning. Currently, thunderstorms are present
west of the airspace, with upper level cirrus associated with the
convection working west to east, and into the airspace. As a
result, have prevailed high level OVC for many, along with any low
level CIGs advertised in area ASOS/AWOS. Plan for now is to not
stray far from the previous TAF package convection through the
morning, and monitor trends through the overnight, with the goal
of adjusting for the 12z package later this morning. Aviation
interests will need to closely monitor overnight trends given how
fluid the forecast is at this time.

RK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  68  85  69 /  60  20  50  30
MLU  81  65  85  67 /  70  20  30  30
DEQ  80  62  81  64 /  50  20  60  50
TXK  81  66  83  67 /  40  20  60  40
ELD  78  63  84  64 /  60  20  40  30
TYR  81  68  82  68 /  60  20  60  50
GGG  81  67  83  68 /  60  20  50  40
LFK  81  68  85  68 /  80  20  40  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...53