Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
050 FXXX10 KWNP 031231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 May 03 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale G3). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 03-May 05 2024 is 4.33 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 03-May 05 2024 May 03 May 04 May 05 00-03UT 4.33 4.00 3.67 03-06UT 3.33 2.33 3.33 06-09UT 1.33 3.00 2.67 09-12UT 1.67 2.67 2.33 12-15UT 3.67 2.67 2.00 15-18UT 3.00 2.67 2.00 18-21UT 2.33 2.67 2.00 21-00UT 2.67 3.67 3.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 03-May 05 2024 May 03 May 04 May 05 S1 or greater 15% 15% 10% Rationale: A slight chance for a R1 (Minor) solar radiation storms exists, primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3663, over the next three days. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 03 2024 0222 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 03-May 05 2024 May 03 May 04 May 05 R1-R2 75% 75% 75% R3 or greater 25% 25% 25% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, and chance for R3 (Strong), are expected over the next three days due to the flare potential of multiple regions on the visible disk.