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000
FXUS63 KTOP 121704
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1204 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend commences today with highs reaching the 80s and
  90s this weekend, near record values.

- Combination of breezy winds, low relative humidity, and very
  warm temperatures will create elevated fire danger across the
  area Saturday.

- Strong system brings storms, including the chance for some
  severe storms, to the area Monday afternoon/evening into
  Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Northwest flow aloft resides across the Plains early this morning
with a surface ridge over central/western Kansas. Light winds and
clear skies have allowed for temperatures to cool into the 30s and
40s this morning, but high dewpoint depressions will likely preclude
any frost development. The surface ridge slides southeast through
the day today, keeping light winds and clear skies across the
forecast area. The warm April sun will boost temperatures into
the low 70s. Winds become southeasterly this evening and a mid-
level ridge builds overhead, setting the stage for an abnormally
warm weekend.

Southwest winds increase Saturday to 15-25mph sustained with gusts
of 25-35mph allowing for mixing to near 850mb where temperatures are
progged to be around 20 degrees Celsius. Surface temperatures
climb into the mid to upper 80s in response. The strong winds
and relative humidity of 20-30 percent will create elevated fire
weather conditions; see the Fire Weather section below for more
details. A weak perturbation advances east through the day,
leading to increased moisture aloft and even some elevated
instability. 00z CAMs depict scattered convection across north-
central Kansas progressing east during the evening although
chances for storms to impact the area remains low (10-15%).
If storms do impact the area, low-levels remain very dry and
inverted-V soundings could support some stronger wind gusts.

Slightly warmer temperatures are expected on Sunday with highs in
the upper 80s and low 90s. A surface trough moves into the area on
Sunday, creating lighter winds through the day and largely limiting
any fire weather concerns. By Monday, a potent trough across the
western CONUS is progged to quickly advance eastward, taking on a
neutral-to-negative tilt as it ejects across the Plains Monday into
Tuesday. Both deterministic and ensemble solutions have trended
slightly slower with the system which would put the best timing of
storms for the local area in the late Monday into early Tuesday
timeframe. The environment is supportive of severe weather across
the Plains with several days of moisture return allowing for
dewpoints to rise into the 60s and plentiful shear as the closed low
approaches. Details will become clearer as the event approaches,
so stay tuned for forecast updates over the next several days.

Chances for showers and storms continue through the day Tuesday
before the closed upper low advances towards the Great Lakes.
The next system moves through Wednesday into Thursday bringing
another chance for showers and storms to the area along with
cooler air to end next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. West northwest
winds 10kts or less decreasing and backing to the southeast by
01Z, then veering to the south southwest after 13Z around
12-14kts with gusts to 22-24kts after 14Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

South-southwest winds increase on Saturday with sustained winds of
15-25mph and gusts of 25-35mph. As temperatures warm into the 80s,
relative humidity will fall to 20-30 percent, lowest in north
central Kansas. Fire partners indicate that even with green-up well
underway, the abnormally warm temperatures on Saturday along with
recent dry conditions will work to dry out fuels and could lead to
more erratic fire behavior. There is also concern that any fires
today could reignite on Saturday given the wind and RH forecast.
This all leads to elevated fire concerns Saturday afternoon.

Sunday features slightly warmer temperatures and lower relative
humidity (20-25 percent across much of northeast Kansas), but winds
will be much lighter, generally less than 10mph. A change in wind
direction occurs as a weak surface front moves through with morning
winds from the southwest becoming north-northeasterly through the
day and eventually easterly Sunday evening. Light winds should limit
fire weather concerns overall.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Updated at 322 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

            Record High Temps           Forecast High Temps

April 13    95 in Topeka (2006)         88 in Topeka
89 in Concordia (1936)      88 in Concordia

April 14    92 in Topeka (2006)         90 in Topeka
 90 in Concordia (2002) 90 in Concordia

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...53
FIRE WEATHER...Flanagan
CLIMATE...Flanagan/Picha