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000
FXUS63 KUNR 162305
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
505 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and winds decrease this evening.

- Unsettled, windy, and colder weather expected for the rest of
  the week and into the early part of the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The stacked storm system, which brought abundant moisture to the
area yesterday, is now centered over the SD/IA/NE border. The KUDX
radar shows lingering rain showers across western SD...now slowly
sliding eastward into south central SD. Upper ridging us building
behind the cyclonic flow, but the next storm is just behind.
Surface obs show winds across the northeast WY plains staying
below High Wind Warning criteria, so have cancelled the warning
early. Highest gusts are in the 48-50 mph range. For the Warning
across the plains east of the Black Hills...gusts have not reached
warning criteria very much. A few spots have hit above 50kt, like
KRAP. Will let the warning ride for now in case there is still
more to come. Will also let the advisory continue. Several
locations along the eastern half of the foothills down to the
Edgemont area are continuing to gust higher than 40kt. Winds will
decrease this evening around the sunset timeframe.

The next system will approach from the west tonight into Wednesday.
A cold front will cross the area early Wednesday morning, bringing
in cooler temperatures, especially across northeast WY. Precip will
move in from the west through the day Wednesday. Northeast Wyoming
may first see snow showers, but a mix/change to rain is expected as
temperatures warm into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Warmer temps
across the western SD plains will keep precip as rain. However,
through the Black Hills, snow is expected. Snow amounts have trended
less, with generally 1 to 3 inches across the northern Black Hills.
It will be tough for snow to accumulate during the daytime hours
with the stronger sun angle this time of year. Chilly, breezy, but
relatively dry weather is expected through the weekend into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued At 502 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Gusty northwest winds will diminish this evening. Scattered
showers will linger across south central South Dakota through this
evening with MVFR/local IFR conditions. Scattered rain and snow
showers will move into northeastern Wyoming early Wednesday and
spread into southwestern South Dakota Wednesday morning. MVFR/IFR
conditions expected with the precipitation.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for SDZ026-032-041-043-
     044-072-074>077.
     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for SDZ030-031-042-
     073.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...13
AVIATION...7