868
FXUS65 KVEF 102002
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
102 PM PDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and very isolated thunderstorms
are expected through the evening hours as a weak low pressure
system sits overhead. Gusty winds are likely with the activity.
Shower chances will shift into eastern Lincoln and Mohave Counties
Saturday. By Sunday onward, a sharp climb in temperatures into
above normal territory is expected with dry and breezy conditions
in the afternoons.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Saturday.

Isolated showers continue early this afternoon as a weak upper
level low sits across southern Nevada. Most of the activity thus
far has been tied to the higher terrain, with Lee and Kyle Canyons
in the Spring Mountains reporting instances of wet snow and
graupel. Lightning has been pretty limited thus far, mainly due to
the very low values of instability and shallow nature of the cloud
build ups, but there has been a handful of strikes mainly in
Lincoln and Northern Mohave Counties, with a few also noted in
western Inyo County. Activity will remain possible through this
evening before diminishing with the loss of daylight. A few very
weak showers may drift off the higher terrain into the desert
valleys through the early evening, posing a risk for locally gusty
and erratic winds.

Calmer conditions are expected Saturday as the low shifts
eastward, with chances for showers becoming limited to eastern
Lincoln and northern Mohave Counties. Temperatures today and
tomorrow will remain below average thanks to the lower than normal
heights in the vicinity of the weak upper low.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday.

Drier and warm conditions are still expected through the long term
period. Ridging will tend to build in across the Pacific
Northwestern States allowing for our regional heights to climb,
despite a transient weak low pressure system undercutting our
ridge to the north Monday and Tuesday. Its influence on our
weather will be limited to a few high clouds, and temperatures 8
to 10 degrees above normal are still expected through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Northeast winds under 10 knots are
expected to shift more to the northwest after 21z and become more
gusty. Speeds are forecast to increase to around 10-15 knots with
occasional gusts to 20 knots. There will also be increasing
convection around the area through 02z this evening. Most of the
storms will remain over or near the higher terrain, but there is the
possibility of outflow boundaries that could bring variable and
gusty winds to the terminal. Wind gusts up to 25 knots will be
possible at times through the afternoon. Thunderstorm activity will
diminish this evening with winds becoming light and variable after
06z. Convective activity is not expected Saturday with just a FEW-
SCT clouds around 12-14k feet.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Most regional TAF sites will see north-to-northeast
winds continue into this evening with speeds generally between 10-15
knots.  A few scattered thunderstorms are expected across the
northern two-thirds of the region this afternoon and early evening.
Any storms that do develop may generate outflow winds from the
direction of the storms and result in CIGs down to 8kft AGL. Away
from any thunderstorm activity, VFR conditions will prevail with
only FEW-SCT clouds AOA 10kft AGL. Convection is forecast to be
mainly limited to areas east of the Colorado River with just a FEW-
SCT clouds around 12-14k feet elsewhere. Winds will remain northwest
to northeast over most areas with speeds around 10 knots or less.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Gorelow

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