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000
FXUS65 KVEF 091646 AAA
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
946 AM PDT Tue Apr 9 2024

.DISCUSSION...Dry conditions with a warming trend are expected
through the workweek with temperatures climbing several degrees
above normal Wednesday through Friday. Increasing winds are
expected by Friday afternoon which will last through the weekend
as a weather disturbance moves through. Temperatures cool over the
weekend with light showers possible...especially in the higher
terrain.

&&

.UPDATE...The gusty north wind will start to diminish this afternoon
as the H85-H7 winds start to weaken. Broad ridge will be over the
Great Basin/Mojave Desert Wednesday and Thursday for warmer
temperatures. There is no need for an update this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...218 AM PDT Tue Apr 9 2024
.SHORT TERM...through Thursday.

Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue down the Colorado
River today on the backside of a departing shortwave trough, but
otherwise a pleasant day is in store for most areas with generally
light north breezes and afternoon highs climbing to near seasonal
normals.

Winds will relax further on Wednesday as a high amplitude
ridge builds across the West. This will send temperatures climbing
with afternoon highs rising above normal by Wednesday afternoon,
and the first 80 degree day of the year a near guarantee for Las
Vegas (as observed at Harry Reid Airport). Temperatures will
continue to rise Thursday as the large ridge remains in place and
the increasingly strong April sunshine will be unimpeded by any
substancial cloud cover. Temperatures will remain in the 80s
around Las Vegas, but will climb into the 90s for the lower
elevations around Lake Mead and the Colorado River Valley, as well
as within Badwater Basin in Death Valley. While the incoming warm
temperatures are not at all out of the ordinary - it has been a
cool Spring thus far, so a little extra hydration is encouraged
especially if planning to spend time outdoors.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday.

High pressure will continue to bring warm temperatures to the area
on Friday. NBM probabilities for 80, 85, and 90 degrees on Friday
in Las Vegas were 99%, 58%, and 18% respectfully. Death Valley`s
chances of reaching 100 degrees is around 30% on Friday. A strong
low pressure system approaching from the west is forecast to lift
a weak trough off the southern California coast northward
potentially leading to a few showers over the Sierra Friday
afternoon. The higher concern will be breezy to windy conditions
on Friday. For now, forecasted winds are sub-advisory level but a
lot depends on the evolution of the strong eastern Pacific low
approaching the coast.

For the weekend, the spread of potential weather scenarios remains
quite large even though there is good agreement that low pressure
will affect the area weather over the weekend and possibly into
early next week. Saturday looks windy area wide and still quite warm
due to the proximity of the low and the deep layer southerly flow
feeding warm air into the area despite increasing cloud cover and
possible shower activity. By Sunday and into Monday we begin feeling
the cooler air as the low moves over the Southwest. Details about
wind, precipitation, temperatures, and cloud cover remain highly
variable while models continue to adjust timing, track, and strength
of the system. If outdoor activities are in your plans for the
weekend, keep an ear to the weather radio for further updates to the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...High probability for elevated north
winds over 10KT to continue through the morning and afternoon.
Isolated gusts to 20 KT are possible at times through the early
morning before more frequent gusts return after sunrise around 14Z-
15Z. Gusts 20KT-25KT will continue into the early afternoon then
around 21Z gusts should end. Wind direction after 21Z will become
more northeast however it is uncertain if the direction will favor
020-030 or 030-040. Wind speeds will drop below 10KT after 00Z with
diurnal wind trends returning for this evening and overnight with
southwest winds under 8KT expected after 03Z through Wednesday
morning. Clear skies will prevail through the period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Breezy north winds are expected this afternoon and
early afternoon in southern Nevada through the Colorado River Valley
and western Arizona, with lighter north winds further west. The
strongest winds will be down the Colorado River Valley this morning
through mid afternoon when there is moderate to high probabilities
(60%-70%) for northerly wind gusts over 30KT. In southern Nevada and
western Arizona, expected 20-25KT gusts. Winds will slowly diminish
areawide late this afternoon and early evening with diurnal winds
trends returning in most locations tonight. North to northeast winds
may continue down the Colorado River Valley tonight but wind gusts
will end and wind speeds will drop below 10KT. No significant
clouds with mostly clear skies prevailing through the TAF period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pierce

SHORT TERM...Outler
LONG TERM...Salmen
AVIATION...Nickerson

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