Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 230914
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
514 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered off the Southeast Coast today as
a surface cold front approaches the region from the northwest.
The remnants of Tropical Depression Cindy will cross the region
with the cold front on Saturday. The front then stalls farther
south off the Carolinas Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Rain showers are finally moving into the region with a slug of
subtropical moisture/shortwave energy that previously ejected
off of TD Cindy around the time it made landfall in TX/LA.
Satellite trends show the moisture losing its oomph as it gets
sheared apart by slightly stronger westerly winds aloft early
this morning. Lack of instability at the surface or aloft is
hampering any thunder potential as well. Have therefore removed
thunder and maintained light rain shower wording through this
morning`s forecast. For this afternoon, daytime heating aloft
should result in enough elevated instability for thunderstorms
to develop. With Pwats roughly between 1.50-1.75 inches (about
150 percent of normal), moderate to heavy rainfall will be
possible. Meanwhile, a weak deformation axis is expected to
cross nrn VA and could provide a better focus for heavier
rainfall primarily north of the Richmond Metro area into the
MD Lower Eastern Shore. In addition, localized minor flooding
may be possible in low lying, poor drainage, and other flood
prone areas that receive heavy rainfall in a short period of
time. Given the moisture-rich subtropical environment present,
it will be difficult to nail down exactly which locations could
be impacted by heavy rainfall today. Therefore, have highlighted
the potential across the entire forecast area within the HWO.
Otherwise, warm and muggy today under mostly cloudy skies. Highs
generally in the upper 80s inland/mid 80s beaches. Dewpoints in
the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Precipitation wanes this evening with a possible break
altogether overnight prior to the arrival of a cold front. The
front extends from a low in SE Canada and is expected to drag
the remnants of TD Cindy across the Mid Atlantic Region with it.
The front will supply enough lift for thunderstorm development,
and an incoming theta-e ridge axis will be a good source for
instability as well. Therefore, showers and storms will arrive
with the front Saturday morning with best precip chances during
this timeframe. After which, models are in fair agreement with
shearing the precip apart Saturday afternoon. This will greatly
reduce any major threats from heavy rain (including localized
minor flooding potential), however locally heavy downpours will
still be possible in this very moist, subtropical environment.
Meanwhile, an upper trough over the Midwest will slowly dig
southward and help to slowly, but steadily, push the front
eastward through the area...especially as the Bermuda High also
retreats to the east. Warm and muggy yet again with highs
generally in the upper 80s (lower 90s possible far SE VA/NE NC
prior to arrival of cold front). Dewpoints in the lower 70s.

The front hangs up a bit Saturday night along the SE VA/NE NC
coast with rain chances slowly tapering off from NW to SE
overnight. Should be able to maintain thunderstorms through the
evening...shifting along/south of Albemarle Sound overnight.
Cooler, drier air filters in from the northwest behind the
front. Lows Saturday night in the low-mid 60s far NW, upper 60s
inland, lower 70s SE. Dewpoints lower 60s NW to lower 70s SE.
Overall, a pleasant day anticipated for Sunday. Lingering
showers invof Albemarle Sound will come to and end with the rest
of the area being dry. Highs in the mid 80s (lower 80s beaches),
and dewpoints in the upper 50s NW to mid 60s SE. Comfortable
sleeping weather Sunday night with lows in the upper 50s NW to
upper 60s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold front pushes offshore Saturday night, stalling along the
coast Sunday. Height falls ahead of a deepening upper level
trough over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Sunday and remnant
moisture along the boundary will result in isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms across northeast North Carolina Sunday
afternoon. Drying inland. Highs Sunday in the low to mid 80`s. A
secondary front pushes into the region Sunday night and Monday.
Have only kept slight chance POPs inland Monday given limited
moisture. Highs in the low to mid 80`s. Potent shortwave digs
into the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians Monday night into
Tuesday with a stronger cold front pushing through the region
Tuesday. Moisture return along the coast will result in isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms across eastern Virginia.
Cooler Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 70`s. Dewpoints
mix into the 50`s, resulting in pleasant afternoon conditions.
Dry and comfortable conditions forecast again Wednesday as the
trough pushes offshore and heights build over the Ohio Valley.
Surface high pressure settles over the Mid-Atlantic. Highs
Wednesday generally in the low 80`s. Cool Thursday morning, with
lows in the upper 50`s inland to mid 60`s near the coast. High
pressure slides offshore Thursday with return flow resulting in
moderating temperatures. Highs in the mid 80`s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Subtropical moisture continues to stream into the region today
through Saturday. Light rain showers this morning will give way
to periods of moderate to heavy rainfall this afternoon/evening.
Upstream trends show mainly VFR CIGs/VIS with pockets of MVFR
CIGs moving in from the southwest. Given the variance of
moisture seen in satellite trends and the potential for a
deformation axis to pass across northern VA, it will be
difficult to pinpoint exactly which TAF sites will experience
MVFR conditions and when. Also, brief periods of IFR CIGs/VIS
will be possible during heavy downpours this afternoon/early
evening. Expect gusty SW winds up to 25kt this afternoon. Precip
tapers off through the evening and a break may even occur before
the arrival of a cold front between 24/0900-1200Z.

The front will slowly cross the region during Saturday and drag
the remnants of TD Cindy with it. S-SW winds become breezy ahead
of the front with gusts up to 25-30kt through Saturday morning.
Otherwise, widespread showers and thunderstorms should be
ongoing when the front arrives and continue into the evening.
However, models are in fair agreement that storms will become
more scattered in the afternoon. Once again, VFR-MVFR conditions
should be anticipated with brief periods of IFR CIGs/VIS
possible under heavier downpours. The front slows up along the
far SE VA/NE NC coast Saturday night with storms becoming
focused invof Albemarle Sound overnight. Showers come to an
Sunday as the front shifts farther south along the Carolinas.
VFR conditions Sunday into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure remains anchored off the Southeast coast early
this morning as the remnant low that was formerly Cindy is
centered over AR as of 07z. High pressure will prevail off the
Southeast coast through Saturday. Meanwhile, the remnant low of
Cindy tracks through the Tennessee Valley today and tonight, and
then across the nrn Mid-Atlantic Saturday. Additionally, a cold
front will push into the Ern Great Lakes today into tonight.
This combined with the approach of the remnant low will result
in a tightening pressure gradient and strengthening low-level
jet tonight through midday Saturday. A SW wind will average
10-15kt early today and then increase to 15-25kt across the nrn
Bay/nrn ocean zones this aftn, followed by a lull early this
evening. Given this, SCAs north of New Point Comfort and
Parramore Island will commence at 17z. A SW wind will then
increase to 15-25kt (gusts up to 30kt possible in the ocean/Bay)
across the entire marine area later this evening through the
overnight hours and through midday Saturday. SCAs for the
remainder of the area begin at 02z Saturday. Seas build to 5-7ft
north of Parramore Island late tonight into Saturday morning,
with 4-6ft out near 20nm north of Cape Charles, and primarily
3-4ft farther south with an offshore component to the wind.
Waves in the Bay build to 3-4ft late tonight into Saturday
morning. SCA conditions end Saturday as the wind diminishes and
seas gradually subside. A cold front pushes across the coast
Saturday night with a wind shift to NW. Sub SCA conditions are
expected due to a lack of CAA, Another cold front pushes across
the coast Monday night, with high pressure building over the
region through the middle of next week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ635>637-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ632>634-638-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...AJZ


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