Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260215
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1015 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SUMMER-LIKE WX PATTERN CONTS W/ BERMUDA HI PRES RMNS STRONG ATTM.
MNLY LGT SSW WNDS OVRNGT. WK TROUGH ALOFT MOVING INTO THE SRN MTNS
THIS EVE GRADUALLY DISSIPATES AS IT TRACKS TO THE NNE THROUGH THE
NGT. SKC E...AND BECOMING PCLDY W. MOST LO TEMPS IN THE L/M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES THE PREVIEW OF SUMMER THRU THE PRD. MODELS
DVLP A LEE TROF EACH DAY. CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS WEAKENS
AS IT MOVES E INTO THE PIEDMONT TUE AS AIRMASS OVR MOST OF THE FA
REMAINS CAPPED. KEPT 20-30 DIURNAL POP OVR THE WRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS
IN THE M-U80S...M70S-L80S CSTL AREAS...COOLEST AT THE BEACHES.

LATEST MODELS AMPLIFY THE SFC TROF AND ARE QUICKER TO BREAK THE CAP
WHICH ALLOWS FOR A MORE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE APPRCHG MSTR FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLLYS BOTH WED AND THURS. CONTINUED SUMMER-LIKE BUT WITH
HIGHER CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTRN/EVE SHWRS/TSTRMS WEST OF THE CHES BAY
WED AND AS FAR E AS THE COASTAL AREAS THURS. GIVEN THE INCRG PW`S
AND LL MSTR...THREATS WILL BE FOR LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS AS STEERING
CRNTS REMAIN WEAK. A TAD COOLER GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVERAGE BUT WITH
MORE HUMIDITY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE L-M80S...XCPT 75-80 AT THE
BEACHES. LOWS IN THE M-U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
EACH DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NW AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NW AND
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
FAIRLY DRY PERIOD FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
AN INCREASE OF POPS TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. POPS WILL
BE LOWER OVER FAR SE PORTIONS.

GUIDANCE HAS 85H TEMPERATURES GETTING NO HIGHER THAN 16C. CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO HOLD READINGS DOWN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR
70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE STABLE
CONDITIONS AND S/SW WINDS DURING THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.

WINDS BE SOUTHERLY MONDAY EVENING...INCREASING FROM THE S/SW BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BY TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PIEDMONT MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT RIC/SBY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE THURSDAY. OUTSIDE TSTMS...VFR CONDS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG HI PRES OFFSHORE WITH SLY FLOW
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. THIS STAGNANT WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THRU
MID TO LATE WEEK. WINDS WILL AVG 10-15 KT...UP TO 15-20 KT OVER THE
CSTL WTRS EACH LATE AFTN/EVENG. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA
OVER THE BAY BUT HAVE CAPPED SUSTAINED WINDS FOR NOW AT ~15 KT.
WAVES OVER THE BAY WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 2-4
FT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS OVER THE MARINE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...MAS



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