Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 262045
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA
445 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary over the area lifts back to the north
tonight into Monday. A cold front approaches from the west
Monday night and crosses the region late Tuesday through
Tuesday night. High pressure builds in from the north on
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Current analysis indicates sfc boundary (in a weakened state)
bisecting the CWA from NW to SE. Remaining cool/cloudy over the
far N/NE zones (temperatures mainly in the 50s), with readings
in the 70s across interior southern/central VA. Cool onshore
flow keeping immediate coast of se VA in the upper 50s as well.
A few isolated showers seen on radar, but PoPs are 20% at most
through the evening.

Lows tonight in the u40s-around 50F on the ern shore to the
l-m50s elsewhere...w/ mainly dry conditions and partly cloudy SE
to mostly cloudy on the lower MD ern shore and along-W of I 95.
Some patchy fog possible,but overall as winds shift to the SSW
expect it to be mainly along the coastal eastern shore.

Initial system lifts into/through New England Mon...leaving FA
w/ continued mild/warm conditions as hi pres (sfc-aloft) remains
invof SE CONUS coast. Genly mostly cloudy mOn morning, becoming
partly sunny by aftn. All zones will be back in the warm sector
Mon, even the eastern shore so aside from locally cooler
readings at the immediate coast, most areas will rise into the
mid-upper 70s. Not much forcing for widespread precip, but will
carry 20% PoPs for aftn showers/tstms inland given some
instability by aftn.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level ridging begins to break down Mon night, as the front
approaches from the W and will carry chc PoPs west of I-95 after
midnight/20% or less E. Warm with lows mainly 55-60 F. Upper
level trough pushes into the area Tue as a sfc cold front passes
by late. Continued warm w/ highs well into the 70s to near 80F
There will be a higher chance for showers and aftn tstms. Will
continue with 40-50% PoPs most areas, with a small area of 60%
PoPs across the N. There will be some potential for a few
stronger storms Tue aftn/evening as speed and directional
increases and sfc dew pts will be near 60 F, but overall not
looking like widespread severe wx. Drying late Tue night with
lows mainly 50-55 F, with mostly sunny conditions Wed, somewhat
cooler but still a little above avg with highs 60-65 near the
coast and in the upper 60s to lower 70s well inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry wx expected for Wed night thru Thu, as high pressure builds
down over the area to along the East coast. Decent chc for
showers and possible tstms later Thu night into early Sat
morning, as low pressure and another associated cold front
approaches and moves acrs the region. Dry wx and high pressure
returns for Sat aftn thru Sun.

Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s Thu, in the upper 50s to mid
60s Fri, and in the 60s to near 70 Sat and Sun. Lows in the
upper 30s to mid 40s Wed night, in the lower to mid 40s Thu
night, in the mid 40s to lower 50s Fri night, and in the 40s Sat
night.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Continued IFR CIGS at KSBY through 22-00Z this evening, but
otherwise, mainly VFR conditions to prevail as winds shift more
to the SE and then the SSW overnight.

Isolated showers possible this evening, probably RIC has the
best chance. Unsettled wx conditions will persist across the
region through mid-week. Sub- VFR conditions will be possible
the early morning hours Mon primarily due to low ceilings,
though guidance has backed off on this a bit and increasing
SSW flow may keep this from occurring. Scattered showers
becoming increasingly likely by Tue/Tue night. Periods of
reduced aviation conditions will be possible during times of
precipitation. Dry/VFR Wed as winds shift to the N.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines in the short term tonight thru Tue. Late this
aftn, a frontal boundary was laying acrs nrn portions of the
area and off the srn Delmarva coast. Also, low pressure was over
srn Lake Michigan. That low will lift NE acrs the Great Lakes
tonight into Mon morning, pulling that frontal boundary N of the
marine waters. As a result, NE thru SE winds 15 kt or less early
this evening, will become S 5 to 15 kt later tonight into Mon
morning. Low pressure and its associated cold front will then
track fm the cntrl/srn Plains ENE and acrs the local area Tue
aftn into early Wed morning. Expect SW or S winds arnd 15 kt or
less Mon thru Tue in advance of this system. Then, as the low
and cold front move out to sea late Tue night thru Wed morning,
winds will turn to the NW then N 15 kt or less. High pressure
will build in fm the N for Wed night and Thu, with NE winds 15
kt or less...become E by late Thu. Seas 2-4 ft; waves 1-3 ft
thru the period.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...TMG



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