Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 240531
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
131 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to influence the weather across the
Mid Atlantic region through the weekend...with little to no
chances for rain. Warmer and more humid conditions return by late
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Sfc high pressure centered over the Delmarva will promote dry
conditions tonight. Some increase in high clouds is expected
toward daybreak, but overall not worse than a mostly clear sky.
BL remains very dry overnight with guidance not really indicating
any fog formation and dew pt depressions on the order of 3-5 deg
most areas. Best chance for patchy ground fog will be across the
Piedmont. Comfortable lows of 60-65, except upper 60s immediate SE
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
If patchy fog develops around sunrise, it will be short-lived and
is expected to dissipate btwn 800-900 AM. Sfc high pressure
becomes well-rooted across the coastal plain with the ridge axis
draped across far SE VA into cntrl NC/SC through Wed night. The
overall forecast is dry, however, an area of moisture moving
onshore across far SE VA/NE NC will result in increasing
cloudiness shortly after sunrise Wed into the afternoon...when
isolated showers/storms may be possible during peak heating. POPs
no higher than 20%. Meanwhile, a weak sfc trough pushing across
the Great Lakes will push a cirrus deck across the mts and into
the Piedmont later in the day...spreading to roughly SBY-AKQ-EMV
into Thursday as the sfc ridge axis gets pushed ewd along the
coastline by the sfc trough now crossing srn Ontario.

Onshore/NE-E winds around 10-15 mph will persist Wed through Thu,
which will keep temps slightly cooler at the immediate coast
during the day and slightly warmer at night. Expect highs Wed in
the mid 80s inland/low 80s immediate coast. Lows Wed night in the
60s. Temps slightly warmer Thu as the ridge axis shifts ewd with
highs in the mid-upper 80s inland/low-mid 80s immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No major changes expected to the going long term forecast as upper
ridging persists across the eastern coast of the U.S into the SE
U.S. This will keep the upper jet displaced well north and west of
the area allowing for dry and hot conditions to persist across
SE VA and NE NC. A stray shower or storm moving off the mountains
and into the piedmont, or developing off the sea breeze near the
coast, cannot be ruled out over the weekend given the hot/humid
conditions. However, given the lack of any upper support and the
very dry antecedent airmass will opt for a dry forecast at this
time.

Have opted to introduce slight chance pops for next Tuesday as the
GFS suggests that the upper ridge will displace to the south
allowing stronger W-NW flow aloft to move into the middle
Atlantic. This may open the door for a few storms during the
afternoon/evening as a weakening front approaches from the north.
However, again at this time the chances look pretty low.

Back to true summer time conditions at least temperature wise as
readings during the day will be right back into the low-mid 90s
with lows only in the 70s. It will be much more humid as well as
compared to the early part of this week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure remains over the region this morning resulting in
VFR conditions and calm to light southerly winds. Only some high
cirrus spilling into the Piedmont. Expect an area of mid level
clouds over north central Virginia to spread southeast into the
Northern Neck and the Bay, but not expected to impact the TAF
sites. Do not anticipate fog tonight due to relatively dry air
mass.

High pressure remains over the region today, with scattered cu
expected inland this afternoon. Another area of mid level clouds
expected over the far southeast local area as an inverted trough
over the western Atlantic approaches the coast. Light showers and
possible a rumble of thunder not out of the question for KECG.
MVFR ceilings also expected due to increasing low level moisture.

OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR with no precipitation is forecast through
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally quiet marine conditions expected for the next couple of
days with high pressure in control. Expect this high to move off
to the NE by Thu allowing increasing southerly winds across the
entire area. Do not expect any SCA conditions but certainly
15 knots not out of the question. A weak trough may pass the
waters on Sat allowing winds to turn back to the NW but they
should be less than 15 kt. Will need to watch for building swell
next week originating from the various tropical systems well out
into the Atlantic.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/JDM
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...SAM/LSA
MARINE...MRD



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