Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260538
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1238 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN DRIFTS OUT TO SEA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COUPLE AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HI PRES WILL BLD INTO THE AREA FM THE W TNGT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENG...AND UNDER A CLEAR SKY...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE UPR
20S TO MID 30S BY EARLY FRI MORNG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY WX EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...THEN RAIN
LIKELY FOR SUN. SFC HI PRES WILL BE OVR THE AREA ON FRI...THEN
DRIFTS OUT TO SEA FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT. SUNNY ON FRI WITH MAX
TEMPS ABT 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...RANGING THRU THE 50S. CLEAR
AND COLD AGAIN WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S. MOSTLY
SUNNY AND A FEW DEGREES MILDER ON SAT...AS SSW WINDS DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HI. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO ARND 60.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS SAT NGT...IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FM THE NW...AND MOISTURE SPREADING NE FM THE GULF CST
STATES ASSOCIATED WITH LO PRES. THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP
INTO/THRU THE CWA DURING SUN...AS A COUPLE AREAS OF LO PRES MOVE
FM THE GULF CST STATES NE ALNG THE BOUNDARY INTO NC. RAIN WILL
BECOME LIKELY ALL AREAS FOR SUN AFTN. LOWS SAT NGT IN THE
40S...AND HIGHS ON SUN RANGING THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WL CONTINUE WITH LKLY POP SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE, EARLY PORTION OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD/LARGE SCALE TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. A QUICK MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS EAST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA
ON MONDAY. HELD ON TO CHANCE POPS ON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
SHEARING SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TIMING, THICKNESS PROFILES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLEET MIXING
IN WITH RAIN BEFORE PCPN TAPERS OFF MONDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN
ZONES. GIVEN LOW POPS AND QUICK DRYING ALOFT ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
BY THAT TIME, HAVE HELD OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

QUASI-ZONAL UPPER PATTERN EAST OF THE ROCKIES ALLOW FOR DRIER WX FOR
THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SFC, COLD 1050+MB
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH EAST OF THE ROCKIES. KEPT SILENT
POPS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH ECMWF`S
DEPICTION OF ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING EAST FROM WHAT
WOULD THEN BE A CUTOFF (OR AT LEAST CLOSED) LOW OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

FOR TEMPS, HIGHS AVERAGE OUT ABOVE AVG FOR THE PERIOD, BUT GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO COOL BELOW CLIMO BY NEW YEAR`S DAY AS STRONG COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS TODAY AT THE TAF SITES. SKIES
SKC AND SFC WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SPREAD SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL INTO THE REGION
LATE TODAY-EARLY TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER PERSISTS THRU SAT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUN AND
SUN NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT W-NW FLOW 10-15 KT OVER THE BAY AND ALONG THE
COAST. HV DROPPED SCA WITH THIS PACKAGE, AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. SEAS ALONG THE COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN 3 TO 4
FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON, SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT THIS EVENING.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OVER THE WATERS FRI...WITH
LGT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SSW BY LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SAT AS SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. SFC LOW PRES MOVING ENE ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL THEN AFFECT THE WATERS SUN AFTN INTO MON NIGHT
BEFORE FRONT FINALLY SETTLES SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY, WITH
W-NW FLOW DEVELOPING POST FRONTAL. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH SEAS COULD BUILD BRIEFLY MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SFC LOW SLIDING ALONG THE FRONT, JUST SOUTH
OF THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...MAM






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