Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 262006
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
406 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered well off the North Carolina coast
through tonight, then pushes north to a position off the Mid
Atlantic coast on Friday. Low pressure will strengthen near the
Bahamas Friday night, and slowly move towards the South Carolina
coast Saturday night through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Latest analysis indicating high pressure at the surface and aloft
centered off well off the Carolina coast, with sfc low pressure
near the Bahamas. Over the local area, very warm aftn underway
with mainly S to SW winds and temperatures primarily ranging from
the mid 80s to around 90 F (locally in the 70s coastal eastern
shore). Norfolk has reached 90 F for the 1st time this year and
RIC/SBY are close (see climate section for details). Seeing
scattered showers/tstms acrs the Mtns drifting east into the
Piedmont, though coverage continues to diminish as these storms
push east/closer to the AKQ cwa where CAPES diminish to less than
500 J/Kg. Will continue with 20% POPS acrs much of the VA and MD
zones through the evening hrs for isolated activity. Any sfc-
based convection should wane rather late this evening, but a weak
upper level shortwave could bring some isolated showers and tstms
through midnight and perhaps an isolated shower after midnight
acrs the ern shore. Very warm and somewhat humid with lows mainly
in the mid to upper 60s.

Forecast soundings again not real enthusiastic about aftn tstm
chcs for Fri aftn/evening, with just some minimal forcing due to
lee trof and weak instability along/east of the mountains. So,
will generally maintain ~20% POPS Fri aftn/evening. Highs on Fri
in the mid to upr 80s/around 90 F well inland, an increase in sse
flow should keep it a tad cooler than Thu along the coast with
highs in the upr 70s to lwr-mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mostly clear to partly cloudy Fri ngt with lows in the lwr to mid
60s. For Sat, models remain in generally good agreement at keeping
the deeper moisture associated with the low well off the SE cst
to our south. They are even hinting at some large-scale subsidence
so have lowered POPS to only 20% confined to ne NC in the aftn/mostly
sunny elsewhere with highs in the mid to upr 80s inland/piedmont
areas, and in the upr 70s to lwr 80s along the cst. Deeper
moisture finally pushes NNW into the cwa later Sat night into Sun
morning, with PWATS rising to 1.50 to 2.00" by Sun morning into
southern 1/2 of the CWA. Exact track of sfc low into the SE coast
will determine sensible wx on Sunday, but overall looks like a
very warm and humid airmass will be in place and should be
conducive to at least scattered showers and tstms, so have raised
POPS to 40-50% most areas. When track become more certain will
potentially need to raise POPS more although the setup does not
look like the complete washout, rather expecting periods of
potentially moderate to heavy rain alternating with variably
cloudy skies and rain- free conds. Highs genly in the upper 70s to
low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The forecast for next week will be largely dependent on the
evolution of the low pressure system expected to develop off the
southeast U.S. coast within the next few days. 12Z suite of model
guidance continues to support the development of this low by this
weekend and NHC has high confidence of it developing into a tropical
or sub-tropical low within next 5 days...and then drifting NW into
South Carolina. Even if it does develop into a named storm, its
impacts would most likely be minimal across our FA...with the
exception of increased shower/thunderstorm chances and possible
elevated seas/increased rip current risk Mon-Wed. For now, will
continue to carry chc pops (30-50%) Mon-Tues...lowering a bit by
next Wed/Thurs. Temperatures, tempered somewhat by clouds and
possible convection, should be near normal through the period. Highs
mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s. Remaining mild at night due to
influx of higher dew point air. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains centered over the western Atlantic this
afternoon, resulting in VFR conditions and southwest winds at or
below 10 knots. Latest visible satellite imagery depicts cumulus
popping across the region with ceilings around 5k feet AGL. Expect
few to scattered clouds around 5k ft AGL to linger through the
overnight. Fog is possible again over the Piedmont, but sufficient
dewpoint depressions (warm temps) will prevent fog at the TAF
sites. South to southwest winds remain at or below 10 knots.

High pressure pushes farther offshore Friday with afternoon and
evening isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low
pressure lifts toward the southeast coast into Saturday, lingering
along the Carolina coast through early next week. Clouds increase
and lower Saturday night with showers and thunderstorms possible
into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW winds 5-15 kt will continue through midday Sat before winds
become more ESE at similar speeds into Sunday. Seas will remain 2-3
ft thru Sat. Watching for possible low pressure development off the
southeast coast by this weekend...which may bring increased
seas/deteriorated conditions to the local waters Sun/Mon. For
now...SE winds avg 10-15 kt Sun/Mon...seas may approach 5 ft...esp
off VA/NE NC.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

* Prior to today, 1st 90 deg day had not yet occurred this year at
  climate sites, Norfolk (ORF) has hit 90 F today, with RIC and
  SBY possibly doing so over the next 2 hrs.

                 (Avg Date / Last Yr):
*  RIC:           May 13   / May 12
*  ORF:           May 17   / May 12
*  SBY:           May 27   / Jun 1

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KAKQ Radar will remain offline for maintanence through Thursday.
New parts are on order.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...AKQ
EQUIPMENT...AKQ



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