Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031830
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
230 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH TO THE COAST INTO TONIGHT.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE THIS MORNG...BULK OF RAIN ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
WAS PUSHING INTO SE VA AND NE NC. ANY TSTMS HAVE MOVED OFF THE
CST. SO...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SE THRU THE AREA THIS AFTN...ARRIVING IN SE VA/NE NC BY LATE THIS
AFTN OR EARLY THIS EVENG. THE BULK OF THE STEADIER RAIN WILL SHIFT
E AND OFF THE CST IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. THEN...EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SCTD SHRAS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVR THE FA. BEST (MARGINAL) INSTABILITY
LATER THIS AFTN WILL BE ACRS EXTRM SRN/SE VA AND NE NC...AND THIS
AREA HAS BEEN PLACED IN A SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS BY SPC.
PRIMARY THREAT DAMAGING WNDS/HAIL...AND IS HIGHLIGHTED IN HWO.
STILL A PROBABILITY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS FM ANY SHRAS/TSTMS
THIS AFTN/EVENG. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 60S TO THE UPR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING CONVECTION...MNLY SRN/SE VA-NE NC THIS EVE...THEN VRB-
MOSTLY CLOUDY TNGT W/ LWRG POPS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
50S TO NR 60F.

UNSETTLED WX WILL CONT ACRS THE FA WED THRU THU...DUE TO UPR AIR
LO PRES DROPPING FM THE GRT LKS REGION DOWN AND ACRS THE MID ATLC
REGION. WILL CARRY 30-50% POPS...ESP WED AFTN...W/ HIGHER POPS
(40-60%) THU AS THE UPR LVL LO TRACKS INTO NC. OTRW...CONTD VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS WED-THU. HI TEMPS ON WED WILL RANGE FM
THE M60S N TO L70S S. LOWS WED NGT MNLY IN THE L-M50S. HIGHS ON
THU WILL RANGE FM THE L-M60S N TO ARND 70F FAR SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FRIDAY WITH A ~40% CHC OF SHOWERS. FORECAST
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE
LOW SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH A 20% POP FOR THE ERN
HALF OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE 02/12Z GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE 02/12Z ECMWF. NEVERTHELESS...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WAS OVER THE TAF SITES AT MIDDAY. A COLD
FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM JUST N OF RIC AND SBY AND CONTINUING TO THE
W/SW MOVING VERY SLOWLY SE. CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WERE VARYING
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. RADAR SHOWED WIDELY SCT LGT SHOWERS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HAVE SHOWERS AT VARIOUS TIMES IN THE TAFS
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

HAVE THE FRONT MOVE THROUGH RIC/SBY NEXT FEW HOURS AND REACHING PHF
AND ORF OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN TO THE NE AND CIGS LOWER TO MVFR THEN
LATER IFR BEHIND THE FRONT. AT SBY AND ORF...HAVE LIFR CIGS AND
IFR VSBYS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODEL/MOS
DATA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE MORNING JUST NORTH OF
ECG.

WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT. KEPT ALL THE TAF SITES IFR THROUGH 18Z EXCEPT SLIGHTLY
BETTER AT RIC. CONDITIONS MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER BY 18Z BUT A LOW
OVERCAST IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF IFR. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PULLS SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST
WITH AN IMPROVING TREND IN AVIATION CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. S-SW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL BECOME N-NE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WIND SHIFT WILL NOT TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST WATERS
UNTIL LATE THIS EVE/TONIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH
AS THERE IS A LACK OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MAINTAINING NE
FLOW AOB 15 KT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NW AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. LOW
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW
CONTINUING. SEAS AVERAGE 3-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 2-3 FT WAVES
IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM



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