Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 012006
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR
THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MIDDAY WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S-SW THROUGH THE
AFTN, ALLOWING FOR A VERY WARM, MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON.
BEST FORCING/DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST AS
UPPER TROUGH RUNS INTO THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE
AFTN. HOWEVER, EXPECT TO SEE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH SUNSET OR SO, MAINLY ALONG
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE, STORM MODE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR PULSE/DISORGANIZED ACTIVITY...AND WILL
MAINTAIN A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND HAVE ADDED IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEST OF I-95 THROUGH 00Z.

WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE SOUTH OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST, WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND KEEP THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS DRY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT W/LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
MINI HEAT WAVE CULMINATES TOMORROW. 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH
LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES AOB 100. FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL JUST SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
REFERENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE
WELL-CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES, AND THUS HAVE KEPT A SILENT POP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ASIDE FROM NE NC ALONG SEA BREEZE. THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA, WITH THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING
STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED
BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS, WILL GO WITH A
20-30% POP EACH DAY CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT DO EXPECT SKY COVER TO
AVERAGE OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REMAIN
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL DROPPING BACK TO AROUND
90 INLAND, SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS
OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN
AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST
AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH
SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR
90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SSW-SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME OCNL GUSTS
PSBL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF AN ISOLATED TSTM MOSTLY TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA/MD LATER TONIGHT. SLY WINDS GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
ANCHORED OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC THIS EVENING WITH A LEE TROF OVR THE MID
ATLANTIC. RESULTING SLY FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES
OVR THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO
TUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND WEAKENS TUE NGT/WED...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY LATE
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU FRI AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...






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