Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 152059
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
359 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks northeast and away from the Mid Atlantic
tonight. High pressure returns Saturday and slides offshore
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Current wv imagery depicts WSW flow aloft from the Gulf Coast
States to the Carolina coast, with a vigorous trough pushing
across the Great Lakes. High pressure has retreated to the NE,
and surface low pressure is developing off the VA Capes in
response to the trough approaching from the W. The current
regional radar mosaic shows a band of enhanced reflectivity from
NE MD/SE PA across central NJ with lighter echoes farther S
over the central Delmarva. Some enhancement is expected over the
Lower MD Ern Shore over the next few hours, with drier air
arriving after 7 pm. PoPs remain highest over the MD Ern Shore,
with a sharp cut-off into the Nrn Neck and VA Ern Shore. Thermal
profiles suggest mainly snow for Dorchester and far NW Wicomico
counties, with a rain/snow mix in vicinity of SBY and mainly
rain closer to the coast. Generally less than 0.5" of snow
accumulation is expected with up to 1" possible for nrn
Dorchester County. Not enough accumulation for an advisory.
However, timing of the heaviest snowfall will occur around the
late aftn/eve commute so motorists should be prepared to take
necessary precautions. Clearing is then expected overnight with
lows ranging from the mid/upper 20s inland to around 30F at the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure builds across the Southeast Conus Saturday and
becomes centered in vicinity of the NC coast by Saturday night.
Highs Saturday rise into the mid 40s N to the upper 40s/near 50F
S with a partly sunny sky N to mostly sunny sky S. Mostly clear
and seasonally cool Saturday night with lows ranging from the
upper 20s/around 30F inland to the mid 30s for coastal SE VA/NE
NC.

High pressure slides offshore Sunday as a weak trough pushes
across the Great Lakes. Some upper level srn stream moisture
will arrive ahead of this wave, which will result in increasing
clouds Sunday. Highs Sunday range from around 50F N to the mid
50s S. High pressure remains offshore Monday. A dampening srn
stream wave pushes into the Tennessee Valley by Monday aftn.
Decreasing clouds Sunday night with lows ranging from the
mid/upper 30s N to the low 40s SE. Increasing clouds and mild
Monday with highs generally 55-60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Rising 500mb heights on Monday will help afternoon temperatures
approach the 60 degree mark. Moisture will also be on the
increase, most prominently in the south. A compact impulse of
energy moves into eastern NC Monday during the day, helping to
spark a few showers, mainly across extreme south VA and northern
NC. Will keep a slight chance of showers going through the
overnight, followed by a lull in activity Tuesday morning.

Models diverge in their solutions for Tuesday and beyond. The
GFS/Canadian suggest a chance of rain Tuesday through early
Wednesday, ending during the day on Wednesday...while the EURO
waits to move any rain in until Wednesday afternoon, continuing
through Thursday morning. Confidence is somewhat higher with the
GFS/Canadian than the EURO at this time, so went with conditions
drying out Wednesday and Thursday.

High pressure builds back in, keeping us rain-free Thursday and
Friday. In the future and beyond, moisture increases from the
southwest early Saturday ahead of another approaching cold
front.

Temperatures will be above climate normals through Tuesday and
then cool down Wednesday behind a cold front. Another warm up is
expected Thursday and especially Friday with winds swinging back
out of the southwest.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure is retreating to the NE today as low pressure
develops and track to the NE off the VA Capes. MVFR cigs are
present as of 18z at RIC/PHF/ORF and should persist through
20-21z before lifting. At SBY, a light mix of RA/SN is expected
to develop later this aftn, with a period of -SN possible
between 21-00z. This has the potential to produce MVFR cigs
~1.5kft along with IFR vsby. ECG is expected to remain VFR.
Drier air rapidly arrives from the NW this evening as the low
pushes farther to the NE. High pressure builds across the
Southeast tonight and Saturday bringing VFR conditions. High
pressure becomes centered over Ern NC Saturday night and then
slides offshore Sunday as weak low pressure pushes through the
Great Lakes. Weak low pressure approaches from the WSW Monday,
but much of the moisture is expected to remain S of the region.
A cold front approaches from the NW Tuesday and pushes through
the area by Wednesday with only minimal chc of showers later
Tuesday into Tuesday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
The developing sfc low is now over portions of the Tidewater
between Chesapeake and Virginia Beach and is moving off to the
ENE. North of the low have seen a persistent E to NE flow with
winds 10 to 15 kt, which were a bit more than the guidance
depicted. Those winds are now beginning to turn to the North as
the low is moving off the coast. Once the low gets off the coast
in the next couple of hours and continues to strengthen, will
see the winds turn N - NW and increase to 15 to 20 kt with
higher gust to around 25 kt, especially over the coastal waters
as the colder air off to the NW gets pulled off shore. Have kept
headlines in place for low end SCA conditions.

The winds will begin to relax by Sat afternoon as high pressure
slides over the area and the cold advection ends. This will
allow for a period of lighter winds and more tranquil seas of 1
- 2 ft through Sunday. By Monday the high pressure system will
pull east off the coast and the flow will turn southerly, but
will remain with winds in the 10 to 15 kt range with seas 2
- 3 ft. This will continue through Tuesday in Wednesday when a
fresh cold front crosses the waters and once again the winds
will kick up to low end sca levels.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
     Saturday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Saturday for ANZ630-631-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Saturday for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JDM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JDM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJB/BMS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...ESS


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