Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 062113
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
413 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THE RIDGING THAT BROUGHT THE PANHANDLES INTO THE 80S TODAY WILL BE
PUSHED OFF BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SATURDAY AS IT WILL BE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN ARIZONA. IT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
DRYLINE LOOKS TO SET UP IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES ON
SATURDAY AND WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION...WHICH
SHOULD BE AROUND 4PM. CAPE IS WEAK AND SHEAR IS MINIMAL SO STORMS
WILL LIKELY ONLY BE PULSE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE AT BEST.

THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES.
WITH CAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000J/KG AND BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND
50KTS...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...EXPECT LARGE
HAIL TO BE POSSIBLE. OTHER MAIN THREATS WOULD BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND 0-1KM SRH ARE EXTREMELY LOW
SO THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL. INITIATION WILL LIKELY
TAKE PLACE EAST OF A LINE FROM CLARENDON TO CANADIAN AND WILL BE
EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON...2PM TO 7PM...AS THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH
EASTWARD AND END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE AREA AFTER 06Z.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY SO HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD. A WEAK
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THIS
WILL NOT AFFECT TEMPS AND LOOKS TO BE A DRY PASSAGE. A SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SOME PRECIP ALONG WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...A 10 DEGREE
DROP. SLIGHT PRECIP AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES AND TIMING
OF SHORTWAVES.

BEAT


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                56  85  50  82  50 /   5  10  10   5   5
BEAVER OK                  57  86  52  83  52 /   0  20  20  20  10
BOISE CITY OK              51  80  43  77  46 /  10  10  10   5   5
BORGER TX                  58  86  53  83  54 /   5  10  10   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              53  87  48  82  51 /  10  10  10   5   5
CANYON TX                  52  86  50  82  49 /  10  10  10   5   5
CLARENDON TX               55  85  55  85  53 /   5  20  30  10  10
DALHART TX                 50  83  44  79  46 /  10   5  10   5   5
GUYMON OK                  55  86  48  81  50 /   5  10  10  10  10
HEREFORD TX                55  85  49  81  49 /   5  10  10   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                58  86  55  83  54 /   0  20  30  20  20
PAMPA TX                   58  85  53  81  52 /   5  20  20  10  10
SHAMROCK TX                56  84  57  84  55 /   5  20  40  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              56  85  58  87  56 /   5  20  40  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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