Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 290532

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1232 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017


For the 06Z TAFs:

VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals throughout this
valid TAF period.

Most noteworthy items for this TAF period include the increase in
clouds tomorrow evening which decks should stay above 5K feet.
There is a chance for precipitaion tomorrow evening, but it should
be diurnally driven and likely end around sunset. KDHT has the
best chance to see rainfall and perhaps a thunderstorm with gusty
winds. There is a even smaller chance KAMA and KGUY could see
these rainfall chances. That being said, gusty winds and perhaps
lower ceilings are a small possibility around and after 00Z. Left
these out of the current TAF due to low confidence. See
subsequent TAFs for and changes. For planning purposes, KDHT may
need a from group in subsequent TAFs for these
rainfall/thunderstorm chances.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 712 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017/

AVIATION...00Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail during the next
24 hours under mostly clear skies. Winds will undergo a wind shift
from northerly BTWN 10 to 15 kts to southerly AOB 10 kts AFT
29/09Z. A low end chance for showers and thunderstorms exists at
KDHT AFT 29/12Z but, due to significant uncertainty as to timing
of formation and location, will not mention in TAF at this time.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 351 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017/

Quite a stagnant weather pattern that will set up as we go
throughout the week toward next weekend. Across the northern
CONUS into Canada, a building ridge throughout the center of the
aforementioned areas with coastal upper level lows in the
northwest Pacific and over James Bay. As a result, this will
provide a stale 500-250 hPa wind flow over the southern CONUS and
west Texas with some of the 28/12Z model and probabilistic
guidance hinting at weak upper level low perturbations developing
over the high terrain of Colorado and New Mexico. With an upper
level high over the western Gulf drifting east throughout the
week, this will establish a south and southeasterly flow. Although
weak, it will bring moisture into the region with some of the
latest GEFS/SREF PWAT anomalies of +1 to +2 S.D. over the
Panhandles. Best chances of showers and storms will be across the
western areas on Monday and then across the entire region
throughout the remainder of the week. By the up and coming
weekend, precipitation chances will decrease and be more limited
to the eastern Panhandles as the main upper level high in the Gulf
shifts well to the east toward the Atlantic in-conjunction with
the northern stream block beginning to decompose by next weekend.
With little to no upper level dynamics, storms that develop will
likely be diurnally driven. Model QPF do vary as expected with
isolated to scattered convection with updates to the forecast as
CAMs and other hi-res models begin to ingest the latest data.
Temperatures will be near average throughout the forecast period.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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