Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 112153
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
353 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN US WHICH HAS PROVIDED
DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE PANHANDLES AND TEMPS INTO THE 60S
AND EVEN SOME PLACES REACHING 70. UPSLOPE FLOW FRIDAY EVENING WILL
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK
FRONTS GO THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THURSDAY OVERNIGHT. THESE
ALL LOOK TO BE DRY BUT WILL BRING SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
EACH OF THESE FRONTS. SUNDAY WILL SEE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE
THROUGH AS RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST AND BE OVERHEAD BY MIDWEEK WHICH WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 70S AND UP TO 80 BY THURSDAY...30 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY.

BEAT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DIP INTO THE
TEENS BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...THUS PREVENTING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. 20 FOOT WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GET CLOSE TO 15
MPH SO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SINCE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL BE BELOW 20.
THURSDAY WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DROP BELOW 20 FOR THE AREA AND BELOW 15 FOR THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES
AND 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 15 MPH...LEADING TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ERC VALUES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
UPPER 40S. WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK...THESE ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE. IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME
PARTS OF THE CRITICAL WILDFIRE OUTBREAK COMPOSITE AS COMING TOGETHER
FOR THURSDAY. THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE IS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN THE
COMPOSITE SHOWS BUT MODELS ARE TRENDING FARTHER EAST. THE 500 MB JET
IS ALIGNED CORRECTLY AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
HOW CLOSELY PACKED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO KANSAS. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD CHANGE AS WE GET
CLOSER THOUGH SO STAY TUNED.

BEAT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                32  65  28  61  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  28  58  21  49  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              28  59  28  63  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  36  61  30  54  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              27  65  27  66  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  30  67  26  63  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               33  65  27  58  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 28  63  28  64  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  31  57  27  57  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                29  66  27  63  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                33  58  25  50  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   33  61  27  54  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                34  62  25  52  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              33  65  26  53  32 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/16


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