Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 280852
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
252 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GET PUSHED DOWN A
LITTLE AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 60S AND 70S
AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND SUNSHINE COMPENSATE FOR THE FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL HELP TO SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
CHILLY SIDE AS UPSLOPE WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER TAKE OVER.
SOME PRECIPITATION WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY
AS A BROAD AREA OF LIFT ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST U.S.
THE LIFT IN THE DIFFLUENT REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL ACT TO
SHEAR OUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHUNT IT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A TOUGH CALL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO IN THE
PANHANDLES...THE BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING FROZEN PRECIPITATION...
WHILE THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO...YOU WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT
SEEING LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TURN OVER TO SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LAYERS COOL DOWN BEHIND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY BE CLOSELY TIED TO ELEVATION WITH THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST GETTING THE MOST SNOWFALL WITH THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST GETTING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL.
WE HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A TAD AS THE MODELS ARE
COMING IN A LITTLE WARMER NEAR THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING. AT ANY RATE...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY RANGE
FROM NEAR ONE INCH IN THE EAST TO ALMOST 4 INCHES NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO STATE LINE BY THE TIME IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN GO DRY FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                71  37  53  32  38 /   0   0   0   5  50
BEAVER OK                  77  37  55  29  42 /   0   0   0   0  20
BOISE CITY OK              68  35  50  31  37 /   0   0   0   0  50
BORGER TX                  74  42  56  34  37 /   0   0   0   5  40
BOYS RANCH TX              72  36  54  32  37 /   0   0   0   5  50
CANYON TX                  71  36  53  32  39 /   0   0   0  10  50
CLARENDON TX               75  41  57  34  45 /   0   0   0   0  40
DALHART TX                 70  37  53  33  36 /   0   0   0   5  60
GUYMON OK                  73  37  54  32  41 /   0   0   0   0  40
HEREFORD TX                72  36  54  31  38 /   0   0   0  10  60
LIPSCOMB TX                76  43  55  34  44 /   0   0   0   0  20
PAMPA TX                   72  39  54  31  41 /   0   0   0   0  40
SHAMROCK TX                76  43  58  34  44 /   0   0   0   0  30
WELLINGTON TX              79  47  61  38  47 /   0   0   0   0  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/15



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