Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 120851
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
351 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES OVER THE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER FOR TODAY...ONE MORE DAY OF
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AREA WIDE. EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINK THESE STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO
THE PANHANDLES. WITH THAT SAID...KEPT THE AREA DRY TONIGHT ALTHOUGH
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD MAKE IT INTO CIMARRON COUNTY
LATE TONIGHT.

JUST TWO MONTHS AGO...WE WERE PLEADING WITH MOTHER NATURE FOR A SET
UP LIKE THE AREA WILL SEE THIS UPCOMING WEEK. KIND OF CRAZY TO THINK
THE AREA HAS RECEIVED 4 TO 10+ INCHES IN THE LAST SIX WEEKS WITH
ANOTHER 1 TO 3+ INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THIS WEEK. WITH
THAT SAID...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SET UP CONSISTING OF A LARGE
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ALLOWING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE AREA COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF GULF OF MEXICO AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY/NIGHT IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REALLY NOT INCREASE FOR THE PANHANDLES UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A FEW STORMS
COULD MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE PANHANDLES THAT LATE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SPREADING EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH STORMS NOT INVADING THE AREA UNTIL
EVENING...HIGHS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE 90S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE CONSISTENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. OBVIOUSLY...TIMING OF THE BEST
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS PRETTY DIFFICULT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES BEING RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST
OPPORTUNITIES TO SEE RAINFALL DURING THESE TWO DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL OBVIOUSLY BE DEPENDENT ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH 80S EXPECTED NORTH AND LOW 90S POSSIBLE SOUTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
SOMEWHAT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL BE THE TIME FRAME FOR THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AND BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...MODELS ARE
PICKING UP ON A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
TIMING OF THIS CONVECTION IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL OCCUR IN THIS TIME FRAME. WITH CLOUDY
SKIES AND RAIN EXPECTED...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY REACH ONLY
THE 70S WITH A FEW 80S POSSIBLE SOUTH.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE BEST SHOT
OF BEING A SOMEWHAT DRY DAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A SHORT
WINDOW OF DRY WEATHER BEHIND THE COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT MOVE OVER THE
PANHANDLES THE PREVIOUS 12-36 HOURS. OBVIOUSLY...TIMING OF THE
COMPLEX MENTIONED ABOVE COULD CHANGE BY 6-12 HOURS...WHICH COULD MEAN
STORMS POSSIBLY LAST INTO THURSDAY. WITH OR WITHOUT RAIN...HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN
THE 70S AND 80S ONCE AGAIN.

FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS SOME BUT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...DO NOT THINK IT
WOULD TAKE MUCH OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TO SPARK THUNDERSTORMS.
KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS
SOMEWHAT RECOVER AS A RETURN TO THE 90S COULD BE POSSIBLE BY THE
WEEKEND.

KNS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                91  68  91  67  87 /   0   0  10  20  30
BEAVER OK                  98  69  97  69  89 /   0   0  20  30  40
BOISE CITY OK              94  66  88  66  86 /  10  10  30  40  50
BORGER TX                  95  71  95  71  90 /   0   0  20  30  30
BOYS RANCH TX              94  69  95  69  90 /   0   0  20  30  30
CANYON TX                  92  67  92  65  89 /   0   0  10  20  30
CLARENDON TX               92  69  95  70  89 /   0   0  10  20  20
DALHART TX                 94  65  91  65  88 /   5   5  20  30  40
GUYMON OK                  98  69  95  67  87 /   5   5  20  40  40
HEREFORD TX                89  65  91  64  89 /   0   0  10  20  30
LIPSCOMB TX                95  67  95  68  86 /   0   0  20  30  30
PAMPA TX                   91  68  93  68  87 /   0   0  10  20  30
SHAMROCK TX                94  68  97  70  89 /   0   0   5  10  20
WELLINGTON TX              96  68  99  71  93 /   0   0   5  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$




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