Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 241726
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1226 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

The upper low will move south towards the Mid-Mississippi Valley
today. As this occurs, upper level ridging will begin to approach
from the west later today and tonight. NAM soundings show steep
low-level lapse rates and with upper level cold pool still
lingering across the area, a few showers will remain possible
today, but coverage will be more spotty with decreasing influence
from the upper low. Any showers will dissipate by late afternoon
with the surface high building overhead tonight into Thursday.
Clearing should begin to work into the region tonight with some
diurnal cumulus development possible on Thursday along with an
increase in high clouds. With moist ground and light winds, some
fog development could occur late tonight depending on how much
clearing occurs. With more sunshine, after a few days in the upper
50s to low 60s, highs on Thursday should reach near 70 in most
areas with light winds.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Late this week through the Memorial Day weekend, an upper low
initially centered over the southern Canadian prairies Thursday
night will gradually sink south and eastward into the Great Lakes
region through the weekend. Model guidance has indicated that a
few shortwaves embedded in west/southwest flow ahead of the upper
trough will traverse portions of the Upper Midwest Thursday night
into Saturday. At least a few showers/storms are possible by
Thursday night into Friday as low-level warm advection develops
with increasing deep layer moisture in association with the
approaching shortwave energy. On Saturday, the 24.00Z ECMWF would
keep the majority of the area dry while the GFS brings a
shortwave up into the area with at least some rain threat. Temps
on Friday/Saturday will be near seasonal norms in the low to mid
70s.

As the upper trough rotates southeastward into the Midwest Sunday
into early next week, there will be periodic showers/storms,
likely at least partially diurnally driven due to proximity to the
upper low. Although there are chances for precip for many periods
through the holiday weekend, plenty of dry hours are likely, and
the periods of higher rain chances will continue to be refined. A
relatively cool northwest flow pattern will persist into the early
to middle part of next week with highs mainly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Cigs to continue gradually lifting with some diurnal warming/mixing
this afternoon, to vfr by late afternoon. Sfc-850mb ridge axis then
approaches/moves over the area tonight, with subsidence and
anticyclonic low level flow. Clouds expected to dissipated thru the
evening. Clear/mostly clear skies overnight, the moist boundary
layer and light winds under the ridge axis to be favorable for
strong radiational cooling and fog formation. A period of IFR
FG/cigs expected at KRST around 10-12z, with mostly mvfr vsbys in BR
elsewhere across the area between roughly 09z-13z. Given it`s late
May, any BR/FG should dissipate rather quickly Thu morning, with
good vfr then expected thru Thu as the sfc-850mb ridge axis drifts
across the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Minor flooding will continue along portions of the Mississippi River
this week and also the Trempealeau River at Dodge as a result of the
recent heavy rains. Monitor river levels closely if you have
interests along these rivers

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY....JM


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