Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 261914
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
314 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front across the central Great Lakes will drop southeast
across the region on Thursday as low pressure moves through the
lower Ohio Valley. The low will move through the Virginias on
Friday as high pressure builds into the region from the
northwest. High pressure will linger through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight moisture will continue to increase from the north and
west as a cold front moves toward the area from the northwest
and low pressure approaches the lower Ohio Valley from the west.
Will begin everywhere with partly cloudy this evening and then
go to mostly cloudy. Will bring a slight chance pop to western
most counties toward dawn but believe most will remain dry
through the night. Lows low to mid 60s.
Thursday models bring the cold front into the area from the
northwest while the low moves in from the west. Models show
most of the precip with the system should remain across the
southern half of the area so will have highest pops there. Still
would like to have chance/slight chance north. Best chance of
remaining dry should be northeast. Highs near normal Thursday
although rain south could hold high closer to 78 to 80.
Thursday night a short wave drops across Lake Superior to
Northern Lower MI increasing upper diffluence and lift across
the area. Will continue with high chance pops across much of the
area and bring likely pops back into much of the area by
morning. Lows in the mid and upper 60s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The front will be well south of the forecast area by daybreak
Friday, but more showers are on tap Friday as an upper level
short wave moves across the forecast area. Some lingering
showers in the East Friday evening will move SE of the area
Friday night as surface high pressure builds over the forecast
area. This weekend will be dry with temps a little below normal
as a large area of Canadian high pressure moves over the area.
The high will be centered over the Great Lakes by daybreak
Saturday, and will be anchored over the Central Great Lakes by
Sunday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Quiet and cool weather is still expected during the period as high
pressure slowly builds over the region from the north.  For the
second day in a row will go with a dry forecast for the entire
period.  Yesterday the GFS hinted at some showers on Tuesday as a
weakening cold front sagged into the area.  Today the GFS is more
like the ECMWF and washes the front out before it arrives.  High
temps will be a couple degrees below normal Monday through
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Expect continued VFR conditions across northern OH and nwrn PA
this afternoon and through much of the night as well. Moisture
will be increasing from the north and west through the period
with mainly high level clouds increasing through midnight.
Towards morning expect lower level but still VFR clouds to
thicken in the west. Could however also see patchy MVFR fog.
Showers/thunderstorms along with possible MVFR/IFR restrictions
possible Thursday.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in thunderstorms will continue to be possible
Thursday night. Non-VFR due to low clouds through Friday and
possibly into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Light south winds will continue through the overnight. Winds
turn to the Northeast Thursday as cold front moves across the
lake. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed starting Thursday
night as Northeast winds increase to 15 to 20 knots. Small Craft
will likely be needed into Saturday as a northeast flow of 15
to 20 knots will continue through Friday night. Winds gradually
diminish on Saturday as high pressure builds in and lingers
through the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...DJB


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