Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 262244
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
644 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be nudged eastward on Saturday as a warm front
moves northward toward western Ohio Saturday evening. The warm front
should clear Lake Erie early Sunday morning. As low pressure tracks
across Ontario on Sunday it will drag a weak cold front across
the region. This boundary is then expected to stall over southern
Ohio on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Frontal boundary still remains very close to the area and it is
expected to make a run back north toward the area during the day
tomorrow as high pressure moves east of the area overnight. Some
showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across southwest
Ohio and central Indiana. The latest HRRR model shows some of this
activity lifting northeast into western Ohio overnight in the form
of showers. However, surface dewpoints are expected to lower
slightly overnight keeping the air over the area on the drier
side. So, will continue with current dry forecast and not
introduce any showers at this time. So, no major changes to
forecast with this update.

Previous discussion...

Weak high pressure will control the weather across the region
through the night. Less cloud cover and drier low levels of the
atmosphere will allow for a cooler night. Most locations should
dip into the lower to mid 60s. A few upper 50s may occur across
inland NW PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Warm front will move back toward the region from the lower Ohio
River Valley by Saturday evening. This will bring increasing
moisture and instability toward NW OH. Still some uncertainty
about how much convection will reach NW OH but believe it
warrants a chance mention. The warm front will attempt to move
north of Lake Erie early on Sunday but as low pressure tracks
eastward across Ontario on Sunday it will push another weak cold
front toward the region. At this point in time it appears that the
thunderstorms will be scattered in coverage, 30-50 pops. The cold
front may not clear the southern County Warning Area until late
Monday afternoon. So will linger some chance pops across the
south.

Saturday into Sunday should be warm and humid with highs in the
upper 80s. A few locations may touch 90. Cooler on Monday as the
drier air slowly returns. Highs Monday will dip to mid 80s across
the north. However the front will take its time crossing southern
areas with highs remaining in the upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tuesday will be hot and humid...with a large flat ridge over most of
the CONUS.  Removed mention of any chance of afternoon convection as
700MB temp of 8c will be too capped.  Models continue with a weak
surface front moving across the area on Wednesday...so dry that just
left very low chance pops with the front.  After this change shaping
up in the long term.   Instead of maintaining flat ridge over the
area...models now dig trough across NERN states Thursday...ushering
in cooler and drier conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. Front
that went through area last night stalled south of Columbus. Mid
level clouds will move into NW OH overnight ahead of next cold
front.

OUTLOOK...A chance of non-VFR late Saturday night or Sunday
morning IN -SHRA/-TSRA with the next front.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the Great Lakes will slide east and move off the
New England coast late Sunday...allowing a weak front to push across
the lake Sunday night.   Some choppy conditions Monday with a NE
flow around 10 knots...but will remain below small craft advisory
criteria.  Conditions quickly improve Monday as high pressure builds
over the lake and remains through mid week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Lombardy/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.