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000
FXUS61 KCLE 260712
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
312 AM EDT SUN MAY 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DRIFT TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL DRIVE A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FREEZING TEMPS MAY NOT END UP BEING WIDESPREAD ACROSS FAR NERN
OHIO AND INLAND NORTHWEST PA THIS MORNING BUT THERE ARE ROAD
SENSORS REPORTING LOW-MID 30S IN THE AREA SO WILL LEAVE FREEZE
WARNING AS IT IS. WILL ALSO LEAVE FROST ADVISORY UP BUT TEMPS
STILL HANGING AROUND 40 SO COULD BE A STRETCH THERE AS WELL.
STILL...HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS TO DROP SO COULD STILL GET FROST.
OTHERWISE...NO BIG CHANGES IN TODAY`S FORECAST. EXPECTING PLENTY
OF SUN WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
REGION WILL DRIFT TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY WITH A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING TUESDAY BEHIND A WARM FRONT THAT
WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS OF COURSE ARE SHOWING
INCREASING MOISTURE AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH BUT THE
CURRENT RUNS SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...HAVE SHADED POPS
ON THE LOW SIDE BY 5 TO 10 PERCENT OR SO WITH BEST CHANCES CLOSER
TO THE BEST MOISTURE. SO FOR TUESDAY CHANCE POPS ONLY
WEST/NORTHWEST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY NIGHT BEST
SHOT WILL BE NORTHERN COUNTIES SO HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS THERE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH. WEDNESDAY BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTHEAST SO
HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS THERE AND SLIGHT ELSEWHERE. THROUGH THE
PERIOD TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING WITH THE BIGGEST JUMP FROM MONDAY
TO TUESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS GO FROM 6C TO 14C. EXPECTING UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S TUESDAY AND MID 80S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE WILL BE FIRMLY CONTROLLING THE LOCAL WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BY FRIDAY MAY ALLOW A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO TO POP UP...BUT MOST WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
OVER THE WEEKEND. SUMMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AND WILL BE
CONSISTENTLY IN THE 80S THURSDAY-SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AND NW PA THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SLIM CHANCES
OF SOME MVFR FOG FOR INLAND LOCATIONS NEAR KCAK AND KYNG AND MAYBE
EVEN TOL. HOWEVER DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE MUCH LARGER CURRENTLY THAN THEY
WERE YESTERDAY AND SUNRISE IS JUST 4 HOURS AWAY. AT ANY RATE NON-
VFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE REALLY SHORT LIVED.

AFTER NEAR CALM WINDS THROUGH EARLY MORNING..A NORTHERLY FLOW IS
STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...PATCHY MVFR BR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NON VFR POSSIBLE
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ANY REMAINING CHOPPINESS ON THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE
FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY AND A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKE SOMETIME ON TUESDAY WILL BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ010>013-
     020>022-029>033-038-047-089.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ014-023.
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN