Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 182044
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
344 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MIDDLE 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS SUPPORTING SOME HIGH ECHO RETURNS ON THE RADAR OVER THE SW
ADVANCING INTO THE LOCAL REGION. MOST OF THIS WILL BE ELEVATED
HOWEVER INDIANA IS INDICATING SOME SNOW REACHING THE GROUND. HAVE
ONLY MINIMAL POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT
AS THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL
WANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MIXED WITH GRAUPEL. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH NEAR MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE
EFFECT BANDS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN LAKESHORE...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY IS NOT INDICATIVE OF NOTABLE SNOWFALL RATES OR
AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DYNAMICS SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CUT OFF EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING EXCEPT IN THE NE WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WANE BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FIRST IN THE NW.
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS SO HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. BY SATURDAY
THE GFS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THE OTHER MODELS IN TRYING TO
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER BY THAT EVENING THE FLOW TURNS BACK AROUND
TO THE SW ALOFT WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN LOCK THE CLOUDS IN UNDER AN
INVERSION INTO SUNDAY. THE SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW/PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE IN AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK BUT STILL
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE YET SINCE SURFACE FEATURES WITHIN DEEP TROUGHS
ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS.

WE DO KNOW THAT A DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PLAINS STATES AND MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TOWARD THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST DETAILS
GET TRICKY AS VARIOUS SURFACE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE
COLD FRONT BY VARIOUS MODELS AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. MOST MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE BEST DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST BY MID
WEEK WHICH COULD LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH ESSENTIALLY JUST A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE SECONDARY SURFACE LOWS SOMETIMES RUN UP THE
APPALACHIANS THOUGH SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO CATCH SOME SNOW ON
THE BACK SIDE.

THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER VANILLA AT THIS POINT
CALLING FOR SHOWERS LIKELY...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPS ARE ALSO TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING
A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WARM DAYS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD BY CHRISTMAS DAY
ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL BLUSTERY.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT WITH LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAN EXPIRE AT 10 PM. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE NORTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND AND THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY SATURDAY. THE FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK






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