Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 162333
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
633 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front in northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania will
lift north as a warm front on Sunday and a warmer southwest flow
will develop across the area. A weak cold front will drop
across the lower Great Lakes on Tuesday. High pressure will
drift across the area on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Update...Added a chance/slight chance of freezing drizzle to
northwest PA this evening. Was a bit nervous about the loss of
ice crystals with the upper moisture drying out and then we
received a report of light freezing drizzle in eastern Erie
county. Could go into the overnight but as moisture continues to
decrease was thinking it would end this evening. Will continue
to monitor. Otherwise no changes.

Original...Heights are progged to continue to rise over the
next 36 hours or so. The weak surface front should drift south,
perhaps to about the turnpike, this evening as the weak wave
moves east of the area and high pressure builds across eastern
Canada. Winds have already veered N at Erie PA. Upward motion
will be replaced by subsidence. 850 mb temperatures have warmed
from about -14C to about -5C over the lake which does not
support lake effect in of itself. The remaining lake enhanced
snow will taper off quickly this evening. Will let the lake
effect warnings and advisories expire.

The weak front will linger over northern OH and PA tonight. As warm
advection increases, there could be enough upward motion for
patches of low clouds to develop tonight or early Sunday. If
the low clouds do not develop, mid and high clouds will increase
and one way or another, Sunday will become cloudy.

A weakening short is progged to dampen out as it crosses the
ridge on Sunday but combined with the warm advection and
increasing low level jet, could produce a few light rain showers or
drizzle in the afternoon into Sunday night. Temps should all be
above freezing at the surface although it could be close across
interior eastern Erie and Crawford Counties PA. I suppose a few
wet flakes could mix in across extreme NE OH/NW PA if there were
to be enough upward motion.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
By daybreak Monday could still see a mix of rain and/or snow in
the extreme east but things quickly transition to all rain by
afternoon. That said do not expect much in the way of precip
either way as limited moisture. So for now will just continue
with chance pops.

Another cold front pushes through on Tuesday. Models still
differ on timing as NAM moves front through in the morning and
the slower GFS not until late afternoon. For now will superblend
the temps and continue with chance pops in the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The flow will become highly amplified through the end of the week.
As a trough deepens from the Upper Midwest and south through the
plains, a low will develop across the southern Plains and move
northeast across the lower Great Lakes. So far there is decent
agreement amongst the models on taking the low just to our northwest
early Friday morning and passing the cold front across as shortwave
energy dives south out of Canada. This will bring rain chances to
the area starting possibly late Thursday night, with the best
chances on Friday. Beyond Friday though the solutions have the
potential to diverge with when and how the southwest/four corners
upper low exits and how the interaction with shortwave energy
working over the expansive ridge off of the west coast takes place.
After highs in the 40s Thursday and Friday, trend the temperatures
back down closer to freezing for Saturday. Lingered some snow
chances across the snowbelt after Friday`s front through Saturday.
For all others the primary opportunity for precip is Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
At this time IFR conditions were at KERI with patchy freezing
drizzle in the area, and VFR conditions elsewhere. Held onto the
freezing drizzle potential at KERI through 04Z for now. KCLE
KCAK and KYNG are at greatest risk of this MVFR/IFR CIG
returning this evening/overnight as the front across northeast
OH slips sw. Elsewhere through the evening expect VFR conditions
with possible MVFR fog/CIGS around and just after sunrise.
Sunday afternoon expecting lowering conditions from the south as
rain moves into the area

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Sunday night into Monday. Non-VFR also
possible northeast OH and northwest PA later Tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Dropped the small craft advisory as the west winds have diminished
to 10 to 15 knots. Winds will shift to the ENE tonight. Small
craft advisories will be needed again late Monday as winds turn
to the SE and increase to 15 to 25 knots ahead of next front.
Winds turn to the NW Tuesday as another cold front pushes across
the lake. Winds diminish on Wednesday from the west as high
pressure builds over the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kosarik
NEAR TERM...TK/Kosarik
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...DJB


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