Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 211736
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1236 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN NE/DAKOTAS WILL PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY...WITH MAIN FORECAST CONCERN BECOMING TEMPERATURES. WEAK CAA
WILL PUSH INTO STATE LATE IN THE DAY...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER THOUGH WILL SEE GOOD MIXING...WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY. WILL ALSO SEE CLOUDS INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT TEMPERATURES
NEAR GOING.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH
COOL AND DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS IN PLACE. THERMAL TROF WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY AND DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN WARM
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY AND SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SOME MODERATION WILL OCCUR INTO TUESDAY BUT
BEST WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE PLAINS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IS ALSO
EXPECTED BY LATER TUESDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE.

MODELS CERTAINLY NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH MIDWEEK SYSTEM AS HIGH TO
EAST STRENGTHENS. FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH WILL BE DRY FROM THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST...LINGERING IN IOWA LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. THIS WILL DELAY ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LIKELY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS OF FORECAST AREA AND LIMIT
OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO SCATTERED AT BEST. THE
CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED AS INSTABILITY REMAINS
QUITE WEAK. BEST COVERAGE THREAT WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS THETA-E
ADVECTION OCCURS. HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
IN THE PLAINS WHERE THE FOCUS OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...21/18Z
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MVFR CIGS NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 23-00Z WHEN CU FIELD
WILL SCATTER OUT AND CIGS LIFT PRIOR TO SUNSET. WINDS REMAIN AN
ISSUE NORTHEAST WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSAGE...AND MIXING. HIGH BUILDS EAST TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SKC-FEW CONDITIONS THROUGH 02Z...THEN SKC. AFT 15Z MON
WINDS BECOME MORE SW WITH FEW035 AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST AND WINDS RELAX THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...REV


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